NCAA West Region Odds: Upset-Minded Arkansas Eyes Duke

Arkansas Razorbacks guard Au'Diese Toney (5) and guard JD Notae (1) react after a play against the Gonzaga Bulldogs during the second half in the semifinals of the West regional of the men's college basketball NCAA Tournament at Chase Center. The Arkansas Razorbacks won 74-68 at Chase Center in San Francisco on Thursday, March 24, 2022.
Image Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

March Madness makes its way to the Elite Eight, and the No. 1 overall seed has left the chat in the NCAA West Region odds market. Gonzaga tumbled to No. 4 seed Arkansas in the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 on Thursday night.

So the Razorbacks will face No. 2 seed Duke in Saturday’s regional final in San Francisco, as the Blue Devils look to continue coach Mike Krzyzewski’s magical victory tour.

Props.com breaks down the matchup, with insights from multiple oddsmakers on March Madness West Region odds and action. Check back for updates through tipoff.

NCAA West Region Odds and Betting Action

Matchup Time Spread Over/Under
No. 4 Arkansas vs No. 2 Duke 8:49 p.m. ET Saturday Duke -3.5 147.5

Odds via WynnBet and updated as of 8 p.m. ET on March 26.

No. 4 Arkansas vs No. 2 Duke

Duke Blue Devils guard Jeremy Roach (3) and forward Wendell Moore Jr. (0) reacts after a play against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the second half in the semifinals of the West regional of the men's college basketball NCAA Tournament at Chase Center. The Duke Blue Devils won 78-73 at Chase Center in San Francisco on Thursday, March 24, 2022.
Image Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY: As tipoff draws closer, Duke is a 4-point favorite in WynnBet’s NCAA West Region odds market. That marks a return to the opening line, after the Blue Devils spent several hours at -3.5 this afternoon into this evening. Arkansas is taking 56% of tickets and 62% of money on the spread. However, on the moneyline, Duke is drawing 70% of tickets and 72% of cash. The total opened at 147 and has spent all day at 147.5, with 55% of tickets on the Under/55% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: TwinSpires Sportsbook hasn’t moved off Duke -4, with the Blue Devils taking 60% of early spread bets and 66% of early spread dollars. “We’ll need Arkansas here, preferably straight up. We’re seeing a lot of Duke/Houston moneyline parlays,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. The total nudged from 147 to 147.5, with 62% of tickets/59% of money on the Over.

Previous Arkansas vs Duke Odds Updates

UPDATE 1:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Duke landed on WynnBet’s NCAA West Region odds board as a 4-point favorite and is still -4 very early on game day. Point-spread bettors are leaning toward Arkansas so far, with 53% of tickets and 62% of money on the Razorbacks. The total is stable at 147, with 53% of early tickets/75% of early money on the Under.

UPDATE 2 A.M. ET FRIDAY: In Thursday night’s first Sweet 16 game, Arkansas set the table for Houston, which knocked out South No. 1 seed Arizona in a later tipoff. The Razorbacks closed as hefty 9.5 point underdogs, but kept Gonzaga at arm’s length throughout the second half in a 74-68 upset. The Zags were looking for NCAA Tourney redemption, after missing out on a perfect season last year with a championship-game loss to Baylor.

Arkansas (28-8 SU, 21-14-1 ATS) ended a three-game ATS skid in the victory. The Hogs still sport an impressive 15-5-1 ATS mark in their last 21 games overall, and they’re on a 5-0 ATS roll as an underdog. Since the calendar turned to 2022, Arkansas has lost five games, with four of those defeats by a total of 11 points.

Meanwhile, Duke moved one step closer to sending Coach K into retirement on the best possible note. The Blue Devils  (31-6 SU, 19-16-2 ATS) had their hands full throughout against No. 3 seed Texas Tech, but prevailed 78-73 as 1-point favorites.

Duke has cashed in its last two games, after an 0-5 ATS skid overall and an 0-6 ATS purge in NCAA Tournament play.

Arkansas-Gonzaga stayed well below the 154 total, the second straight Under for the Razorbacks after a 7-0 Over stretch. Duke-Texas Tech soared beyond the 136.5 total, and the Over is 8-1 in the Blue Devils’ last nine games. Further, the Over is 7-1 in Duke’s last eight on neutral floors.

The Under cashed in seven of eight Sweet 16 games, with Duke-Texas Tech being the lone exception.

DraftKings’ NCAA West Region odds board stood at Duke -4.5/total 147.5 early today. Check back later for updates on odds and action in the West Region final.