Almost half the league is on the Thursday NBA odds docket, with seven games on tap. There are compelling matchups in both the Eastern Conference and Western Conference. Oh, and Kevin Durant is expected to return from a six-week absence.
So the flailing Brooklyn Nets have that going for them. Which is nice. And Brooklyn gets the benefit of hosting a Miami Heat outfit playing its second game in as many nights. Also tonight, the riveting Ja Morant leads the Memphis Grizzlies against the Boston Celtics, and the Dallas Mavericks play host to the Golden State Warriors.
Props.com breaks down all three contests in our Thursday NBA betting preview.
Odds via PointsBet USA and updated as of 3 p.m. ET on March 3.
Miami Heat vs Brooklyn Nets
Tipoff/TV: 7:30 p.m. ET/TNT
Heat: 41-22 SU/36-26-1 ATS
Nets: 32-31 SU/25-36-2 ATS
Spread/Total: Nets -2 (-105)/223
Last meeting: On Feb. 12, Miami edged Brooklyn 115-111 as a hefty 11-point home chalk, the Heat’s third consecutive SU win in this rivalry. But the road team is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings
Did you know: The Under is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams, including 3-1 in the last four
About Miami: The Heat played Wednesday night at Milwaukee and came up just short, losing 120-119 while cashing as 4.5-point underdogs. That setback halted a 9-1 SU run, though the cover gave Miami a 7-3-1 ATS mark in its last 11. In fact, the Heat have the fourth-best spread-covering mark in the NBA. Despite giving up 120 points to Milwaukee and 129 last week in a home win over San Antonio, Miami still ranks fifth in the league in scoring defense (104.9 ppg allowed). The Heat continue to sit atop the Eastern Conference standings, and they have the fourth-best SU mark in the league.
About Brooklyn: The Nets are just one game above .500, yet are still the +800 fifth choice in PointsBet’s NBA championship futures market. Brooklyn is a putrid 3-15 SU (6-10-2 ATS) in its last 18 games. However, the Nets have been without superstar Durant (sprained MCL) the entire time. And Kyrie Irving hasn’t played in home games because of New York City’s COVID vaccine regulations. On the upside, Durant — the favorite to win the MVP before getting hurt Jan. 15 — is expected to return Thursday. And while it’s not a riveting stat, the Nets have cashed in five of their last eight outings. But Brooklyn has serious work to do if it wants to have home-court advantage at any point of the playoffs, as it currently sits eighth in the East.
Editor’s Note: Looking to become a sharper NBA bettor? Check out our NBA betting guide for a few wagering tips.
Notable Trends
- Miami is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven as a road chalk
- Heat are 5-0-1 ATS in their last five on the road
- Miami is 0-4 ATS playing on the second of back-to-back nights
- Brooklyn is 7-22-1 ATS at home this season
- Brooklyn is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight as an underdog
- Miami is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. Brooklyn
- Under is 7-3-1 in last 11 meetings in Brooklyn
Miami Heat vs Brooklyn Nets Odds and Action
UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET: This line has been a big mover at PointsBet USA. Miami opened as a 3-point road chalk and made a couple brief stops at -3.5, but this afternoon, the number jumped the fence and is now Brooklyn -2 (-105). “Good two-way on the spread, 65% of bets on the Heat, while 55% of cash is on the Nets,” PointsBet’s Wyatt Yearout said. The total initially backed up from 221 to 219.5, then climbed as high as 223 multiple times. It’s currently at that 223 high point, with ticket count 3/1 and money 5/1 on the Over.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Boston Celtics
Tipoff/TV: 7:30 p.m. ET/NBA League Pass
Grizzlies: 43-20 SU/42-21 ATS
Celtics: 37-27 SU/32-31-1 ATS
Spread/Total: Celtics -2.5/223.5
Last meeting: On March 21, 2021, these teams went to overtime in Memphis, with the Grizzlies prevailing 132-126 as 4.5-point favorites
Did you know: Prior to that most recent meeting, the Celtics had won nine in a row against Memphis, going 7-2 ATS.
About Memphis: The Grizzlies are surprising all comers with the NBA’s third-best SU record. And bettors who got on the Memphis bandwagon early are quite satisfied, as the Grizzlies are the top spread-covering outfit in the league, cashing at a wallet-fattening 66.7% clip. On Monday night, the Grizz beat San Antonio 118-105 giving 8 points at home. Morant and Co. are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. That said, the Grizzlies’ schedule has been a bit soft in that stretch, with games against the Spurs, Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Hornets, Pistons, Magic and Knicks — all sub-.500 teams (and several significantly underwater).
About Boston: Over the past month-plus, Boston has revived its season, going 12-2 SU (8-6 ATS) since Jan. 29. On Tuesday night, the Celts topped Atlanta 107-98 laying 6.5 points at home, bouncing back from a 128-107 loss as 9.5-point faves at Indiana, one of the league’s worst squads. That result notwithstanding, Boston is getting it done with its defense. The Celtics rank third in the NBA in points per game allowed at 103.8, just behind Dallas and Cleveland. During its 12-2 SU stretch, Boston has held eight opponents to less than 100 points, and only two foes cleared 110 points.
Notable Trends
- Memphis is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog
- Memphis is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 as a road ‘dog
- Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a day off
- Boston is 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 following a spread-cover
- Over is 5-1 in the last six Grizzlies-Celtics meetings in Boston
Memphis Grizzlies vs Boston Celtics Odds and Action
UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET: This line is another big mover in PointsBet USA’s Thursday NBA odds market. Memphis opened at -3 and touched -4 early this morning before the number began running the opposite direction. The reversal peaked at Boston -3.5 this afternoon, and the Celtics are now -2.5. “More two-way, 69% of bets on Memphis, while Boston is taking 52% of cash,” PointsBet’s Wyatt Yearout said. The total opened at 224, peaked at 225, bottomed out at 223, and is now 223.5, with 72% of bets/57% of money on the Over.
Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks
Tipoff/TV: 8:30 p.m. ET/NBA League Pass
Warriors: 43-19 SU/30-28-4 ATS
Mavericks: 37-25 SU/34-27-1 ATS
Spread/Total: Mavericks -2.5 (-105)/219.5
Last meeting: These two teams just met Sunday, with the Mavs notching a 107-101 victory catching 3.5 points on the road. Dallas rallied from a 21-point third-quarter deficit. It was quite a flip from the Jan. 25 meeting in Oakland, a 130-92 Golden State rout, with the Warriors again laying 3.5.
Did you know: Dallas has had great success against Golden State over the past four seasons, going 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
About Dallas: The Mavs are 8-2 SU and an even more stout 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games. On Tuesday against the Lakers, Dallas claimed a 109-104 win, pushing as a 5-point road chalk. Even with the talented Luka Doncic averaging 27.5 points and 8.8 assists per game, the Mavericks are 25th in the NBA in scoring (106.7 ppg). But Dallas makes that work with its defense, which rates second in the league, yielding 103.4 ppg. During their current 10-game upswing, the Mavs have held five opponents under the century mark. And in Sunday’s victory at Golden State, Dallas’ defense held the Warriors almost 10 points below their season average (110.9 ppg).
About Golden State: Even with Draymond Green (back) out of the lineup for nearly two months now, the Warriors still have the second-best SU record in the Western Conference (behind Phoenix). However, Golden State enters this contest on a 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS purge. On Tuesday night at Minnesota, the Warriors closed as 3.5-point favorites and got drummed 129-114. That was on the heels of the aforementioned six-point home loss to Dallas on Sunday. Golden State is among the top 10 in the NBA in both offense (110.9 ppg, 10th) and defense (104 ppg allowed, fourth). But the Warriors have given up well beyond that average several times of late, allowing 111 points or more in six of their last eight outings.
Notable Trends
- Golden State is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games
- Warriors are on an 0-5 ATS skid against teams with winning SU record
- Dallas is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games going on one day’s rest
- Mavs are on an 8-2 ATS runs against teams with a SU win percentage above .600
- Over is 5-1-1 in Golden State’s last seven games
- Under is 7-3 in Dallas’ last 10 games
- Mavericks are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes with Warriors
- Over is 11-4 in last 15 Mavs-Warriors meetings
Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Odds and Action
UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET: “Another mover,” PointsBet USA’s Wyatt Yearout said. “We opened Golden State -3, and it began trickling down this morning before a flip to Dallas. We’re now at Dallas -2.5 (-105).” The Mavs are seeing a slim majority 52% of spread tickets, but that’s translating into 67% of spread money. The total opened at 218.5, bottomed out at 218 this morning, peaked at 220 by lunchtime and is now 219.5. “The Over is seeing heavy action, taking 79% of bets and 90% of handle,” Yearout said.
