Welcome to the AFC Championship player prop bets breakdown, which takes a close look at the most intriguing props for Sunday’s matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.
This is a rematch from just four weeks ago, when Cincinnati outlasted Kansas City at home, 34-31.
Props.com dives into some of the most popular props for the AFC Championship Game, while offering analysis that supports or strikes down a certain side.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 10:30 p.m. ET on Jan. 27.
Cincinnati Bengals: QB Joe Burrow
The Prop: 286.5 passing yards
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115
This prop should be an interesting test for prospective bettors. Will they rely on solid information to carry out an Under wager? Or become petrified by the Chiefs’ defensive lapses in the final minutes of last week’s epic playoff game versus Buffalo?
However, that outing was the exception, not the rule. In Kansas City’s last eight home games, only one opposing quarterback had more than 265 yards passing: the Bills’ Josh Allen (329). The other seven averaged just 219 yards.
Burrow averaged 265.6 yards passing in his last five road games, but only twice cleared 287 yards: in last week’s divisional win at Tennessee (348 yards) and in a Week 7 win at Baltimore (416).
In his last five games overall, Burrow averaged 344 passing yards. That average is heavily weighted by his efforts in Week 16 and 17 home wins over Baltimore and Kansas City, in which he threw for 525 yards and 446 yards, respectively. But with this prop, it’s hard to ignore that 446-yard game against the Chiefs’ defense. Burrow was spotless that day, with four TDs and no INTs.
In the past three AFC Championship Games, all played in Kansas City, the Chiefs’ defense allowed an average of 281 passing yards. That’s just short of this prop’s number. However, Josh Allen (287 last season) and Tom Brady (348 in 2018-19 AFC final) both cleared Sunday’s total.
Bottom line: In coin-flip situations like this, weather often serves as a tiebreaker. The preliminary forecast for Sunday in Kansas City: Mid-40s and clear skies.
Kansas City Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes
The Prop: 2.5 passing touchdowns
The Odds: Over +105/Under -140
Mahomes has tossed three or more TD passes in four of his last six games, including both playoff games. Against Pittsburgh on Super Wild Card Weekend, he fired five TD passes in a 42-21 rout. In last weekend’s insane 42-36 overtime victory against Buffalo in the Divisional Round, Mahomes had three TD passes.
Counterpoint: Cincinnati was middle-of-the-pack in TD passes allowed this season, with 26. But that works out to 1.5 per game. And over the Bengals’ last 11 games, dating to Week 11, the defense has allowed just one QB to eclipse 2.5 TD passes. The Chargers’ Justin Herbert had three in Cincy’s 41-22 Week 13 home loss.
But this is Mahomes, and it is the playoffs. In his last six home postseason contests, all wins, Mahomes is averaging 329.5 passing yards and 3.3 TD passes. At plus money, the Over is certainly attractive in this AFC Championship player prop bets market.
Cincinnati Bengals: RB Joe Mixon
The Prop: 88.5 rushing/receiving yards
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115
The research perhaps shows value to the Over on this pick ’em prop, barring early injury or a 30-point blowout in the Chiefs’ favor.
Mixon averaged 94.9 scrimmage yards per game during the regular season, en route to career highs in rushing yards (1,205), receiving yards (314), and touchdowns (16). The fifth-year back averaged 94.5 total yards in eight road outings (including the postseason). The University of Oklahoma product averaged 90.5 total yards in the Bengals’ playoff wins vs. the Raiders and at the Titans.
Being a key component of Cincinnati’s passing games certainly helps the prospect of this prop going Over. For the season, Mixon has been targeted four-plus times in eight games, including five or more in each of the last four outings.
Along those lines, Kansas City’s defense ranked in the bottom five for targets (28th), receptions (29th), and receiving yards allowed to opposing backs (30th).
There’s a little support for the Under here, from the Week 17 Bengals-Chiefs clash. In that meeting, Mixon tallied 86 scrimmage yards (46 rushing, 40 receiving). But even then he notched season highs in catches (7) and targets (8).
Kansas City Chiefs: WR Tyreek Hill
The Prop: 6.5 receptions
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115
Is it wise to take a conservative tack with Hill’s prop? We’re just days removed from his 11-catch, 150-yard explosion against the Bills. And Hill is coming off a regular season in which he had career highs of 111 catches and 159 targets. Hill had nine games of seven ore more catches this season, and over his last seven playoff games, he’s averaging 7.7 catches.
Hill caught six balls in KC’s Jan. 2 loss to Cincy. That game marked just the second time all season in which Hill posted six or fewer receptions.
Now for the good news, if you’re thinking Under: In Cincinnati’s nine road games, only two opposing wide receivers caught seven or more balls: Pittsburgh’s Chase Claypool (9 catches, 96 yards) in Week 3, and the New York Jets’ Jamison Crowder (8 catches, 84 yards) in Week 8.
Cincinnati Bengals: WR Ja’Marr Chase
The Prop: 28.5 yards (longest single reception)
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115
Chase (81 catches, 1,455 yards, 13 TDs) should be the runaway choice for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Chiefs would presumably vote that way, after watching Chase catch 11 balls for 266 yards and three touchdowns on Jan. 2.
The No. 5 pick from last year’s draft also produced 22 plays of 20-plus yards this season, 4th among NFL pass-catchers. What’s more, Chase recorded at least one catch of 34-plus yards in his first seven pro games. All told, the LSU product had 11 receptions that covered more than 28.5 yards; eight of those were for 42 yards or more, including six of 50 yards or more.
Also, with a Cincinnati offense that ranked seventh in passing (259.0 yards per game), Chase racked up five games of double-digit targets, six outings of six-plus receptions, and six games of 90-plus receiving yards. So the opportunities to make a big play could make the Over an attractive selection on the AFC Championship player prop bets menu.
But it’s worth noting that defenses apparently made some adjustments this season. In the four times Chase played a team twice — each of the Bengals’ division rivals, and the Raiders — he averaged only 5.3 catches and 77 yards in the latter matchup.
Still, that leaves the explosive rookie some wiggle room to secure at least one Burrow pass of 29-plus yards on Championship Sunday.