Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA props from Wednesday’s slate of 10 games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 5:15 p.m. ET on Jan. 26.
Milwaukee Bucks: PF Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Prop: 27.5 points (at Cleveland)
The Odds: Over -115/Under -110
There’s some juice to the Over on this prop, and the numbers support it.
For starters, Antetokounmpo has scored 28-plus points in 11 of his last 13 games — and he came real close in the other two, tallying 26 and 27 (both on the road). During this 13-game stretch, the former MVP is averaging 31.8 points per contest (including 31.3 ppg as a visitor).
In seven games against Central Division rivals this season, Antetokounmpo rolled for 30, 31, 27, 26, 33, 28, and 30 points. The 27-point effort was against Cleveland on Dec. 6, but he only played a little more than 27 minutes. That’s key because The Greek Freak is averaging 34.5 minutes in his last seven games.
Also key: The reigning NBA Finals MVP enters this contest on four full days of rest, after taking a load-management break in Saturday’s home game against Sacramento.
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide.
Indiana Pacers: SG Caris LeVert
The Prop: 6.5 assists (vs. Charlotte)
The Odds: Over -155/Under +115
Here’s yet another prop with juice leaning to the Over (and significantly so). Is it justified? It depends on your perspective.
Those siding with the Over can point to the fact that LeVert is averaging 6.8 assists in his last six home outings, slightly above Wednesday’s number. And he’s facing a Hornets team that ranks dead last in assists allowed this season, at a whopping 25.9 per game.
Then again, the Pacers’ guard is averaging just 4.2 assists per game for the year. More importantly, while he’s finished with exactly six assists four times this season, he’s tallied more than six dimes in just five of 33 games overall and three of 20 home contests.
Granted, four of LeVert’s highest assist totals have come in his last nine games (11, 9, 9, and 8). So it’s possible he’s getting in a groove, which makes this a too-close-to-call prop.
Atlanta Hawks: PG Trae Young
The Prop: 42.5 points/rebounds/assists (vs. Sacramento)
The Odds: Over -120/Under -115
Young is one of the NBA’s premier playmakers. Still, this number seems ambitiously high — at least at first glance.
The Hawks’ point guard has fallen short of 42.5 points/rebounds assists six times in his last nine games. In fact, he tallied 38 or fewer in all six (while going for 56, 45 and 48 in the other three).
And while the Kings have struggled defensively in recent years, Young “only” netted 41 and 38 points/rebounds/assists in last year’s two meetings.
However, Young has torched Western Conference teams of late, averaging 56.4 points/rebounds/assists in his last seven cross-conference clashes. And that includes one clunker of 29 against the Clippers on Jan. 9. Young’s stats relative to this prop in the other six Western Conference contests: 56, 48, 74, 47, 54, and 47 PRA.
Now about that porous Kings defense: Sacramento this season ranks 29th in points allowed (114.8 ppg), 19th in assists yielded (24.6 apg), and 24th in rebounds surrendered (46.7 per game). Throw in the fact that Young will be playing on two days rest while the leg-weary Kings arrive in Atlanta off last night’s 128-75 loss at Boston, and maybe this prop number isn’t so ambitious after all.
New York Knicks: SG/SF Evan Fournier
The Prop: 2.5 made three-pointers (at Miami)
The Odds: Over -125/Under -105
Fournier has been underwhelming from long distance this season (41.8%) when compared with his career rate (44.7%). But there’s still reason for optimism that he can surpass Wednesday’s total:
- Fournier has cleared this number in exactly half of his 46 games, including 11 of 18 contests since Dec. 16
- He’s topped this prop three times in his last five road games
- The Heat are surrendering the third-most three-pointers to the opposition this season (13.6 per game)
On the downside, while Fournier has been decent from beyond the arc in opposing gyms lately, the fact remains he’s let it fly from long range much more often at Madison Square Garden (133 attempts) than on the road (93). The Frenchman also has been far more proficient from distance at home (40.3%) than on the road (36.7%).
Brooklyn Nets: PG/SG James Harden
The Prop: 8.5 rebounds (vs. Denver)
The Odds: Over +100/Under -135
It’s never too late to squeeze in an Admiral Ackbar cameo with NBA props. As in … It’s a trap!!
In this instance, the trap involves backing the Over. Let’s examine:
Harden has been a triple-threat monster since Jan. 12, averaging 25.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 8.0 assists over an eight-game stretch. Also, since returning from a COVID-related absence on Christmas Day, Harden has collected seven-plus rebounds 13 times in 16 games … but he’s pulled down nine more boards on just six occasions during this stretch.
Additionally, Harden’s top four rebounding games have come at home, including last night’s 11-rebound effort in a loss to the Lakers. However, he failed to eclipse eight boards in four of his previous five home games.
Finally, here are Harden’s rebounding totals when playing the second night of a back-to-back this season (as he is Wednesday): 6, 8, 10, 7, 11 and 7.
