NFL fans might be chagrined about a Pittsburgh-Kansas City rematch for Wild Card Weekend — especially after K.C. won 36-10 in Week 16. But there’s a veritable gold mine of prop-betting opportunities for bettors in this seemingly one-sided matchup.
So let’s dive into our five favorite NFL Wild Card prop bets for Steelers vs. Chiefs, with supporting arguments on both sides — if such claims can be made.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 14.
Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Ben Roethlisberger
The Prop: 39.5 pass attempts
The Odds: Over +100/Under -130
Big Ben has incredibly thrown 68, 58, and 47 passes in his last three playoff games (all losses). Should fans expect a whopping 57-plus passes Sunday against the Chiefs?
After all, the Steelers are 12.5-point underdogs … and memories of the team’s blowout loss to Kansas City remain fresh.
Here’s the deal:
— Citing his last five postseason road games, Roethlisberger attempted 40, 31, 37, 31, and 47 passes, or an average of 37.2 tosses.
— For his seven cold-weather games in November/December, Big Ben attempted 40-plus passes just three times. The breakdown: 30, 41, 31, 25, 35, 46, and 44 passes.
— Charting Pittsburgh’s last nine defeats of 10 points or more, dating back to 2017, Roethlisberger averaged 46.6 passes per outing. He toppled Sunday’s total of 39.5 six times during that stretch … and the misses were reasonably high at 35, 37, and 38 attempts.
Oh, and in case you’re wondering, Big Ben had a completion rate of 61.8 percent for the nine blowout losses — a tick below his career rate (64.8 percent).
Kansas City Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes
The Prop: 277.5 passing yards
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115
In his last eight games, coinciding with the Chiefs’ 7-1 finish, Mahomes averaged 288.1 yards passing. However, for this stretch, the 2018 NFL MVP rolled for 278-plus yards only twice — with the two 400-yard outings occurring on the road (at Raiders, at Chargers).
Mahomes passed for 278 or more yards in each of his first five postseason outings (278, 295, 321, 294, 286 yards); but for last year’s playoffs (three games), the Chiefs star reached that threshold once (325 passing yards vs. Buffalo).
Also, last month, Mahomes needed only 37-plus minutes to register three touchdown passes against the dubious Steelers defense.
On that day, Mahomes merely threw for 258 yards (on 30 attempts) … but then again, there wasn’t much incentive to go further, since the Chiefs led 30-3 midway through the third quarter.
Which brings us to this next prop …
Steelers-Chiefs: Total First-Half Points
The Prop: 23.5 points
The Odds: Over -110/Under -110
The Chiefs have dominated the first halves of their last six home games, crushing opponents by a cumulative score of 111-19.
However, for the season, Kansas City’s nine home outings produced a modest halftime average of 24.0 total points.
Regarding the shaky Steelers, check this out: The team scored only zero, three, or 10 halftime points in all eight road games this season — including the Dec. 26 debacle in Kansas City, when the Chiefs led 23-0 after 30 minutes.
And of these eight road games, only one halftime result had a combined total of 28-plus points (trailing the Bengals 31-3 in Week 12).
That doesn’t leave us much wiggle room — either way — for Sunday’s total, huh?
The tiebreaker might fall into the hands of Mahomes and Co. The Chiefs have amassed 58 first-half points in their last two home games.
Kansas City Chiefs: TE Travis Kelce
The Prop: 68.5 receiving yards
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115
It’s difficult to justify the ‘68.5’ total being a 50/50 proposition. Here’s why:
— This season, Kelce finished second among NFL tight ends in catches (92), targets (135), and receiving yards (1,125. For his 16-game run, Kelce averaged 70.3 receiving yards per outing.
— Charting his last 27 games, dating back to November 2020 (including last year’s playoffs), Kelce eclipsed Sunday’s total 17 times; and two of the misses yielded 68 receiving yards apiece.
— Of his last five encounters with the Steelers, Kelce collected 69 or more yards three times. The breakdown: 109, 37, 23, 73, and 77 yards.
— In his last eight postseason outings, Kelce owns robust averages of 7.5 catches, 87.2 yards, and one touchdown. And that stretch includes three relative clunkers of 23, 30, and 43 yards.
For the Under crowd, one could point out to Kelce’s output of 25 and 34 yards in his last two games, coming off a COVID-related absence. However, he still found the end zone both times. Perhaps Kelce had been game-planned for red-zone-only situations, while recovering from his illness.
Either way, it’s hardly a ringing endorsement for the Under.
Pittsburgh Steelers: WR Diontae Johnson
The Prop: 20.5 yards (longest single reception)
The Odds: Over -105/Under -125
This juice on this prop leans strongly toward the Under, but perhaps that shouldn’t be the case.
In 2021, Johnson posted career highs in catches (107), targets (169), receiving yards (1,161), and receiving touchdowns (8). The third-year wideout also notched 14 plays of 20-plus yards (24th among NFL pass-catchers) — or 0.82 explosive receptions per game.
Also, with a Steelers offense that marginally ranked 15th in passing (222.2 yards per game), Johnson still racked up 12 games of double-digit targets, 11 outings of six-plus receptions, and six games of 90-plus receiving yards.
For the coup-de-grace argument, for Weeks 2-13, Johnson caught at least one ball of 21-plus yards in 10 of 11 games; and during this stretch, the averages were a staggering 34.6 yards per max-catch reception.
Here’s one nitpick, relative to the Under: For his six-catch, 51-yard effort against the Chiefs, Johnson didn’t produce a single reception of 21-plus yards.
However, Johnson still squeezed out catches of 18 and 15 yards in the blowout loss — with the latter being a garbage-time touchdown.
