College football bowl odds aren’t just about the College Football Playoff semifinals or the other four New Year’s Six matchups. Oh no, you’re almost through a flood of 37 — thirty-damn-seven — mostly meaningless games. (Well, make that 32, due to COVID cancellations.)
We say mostly meaningless because, thanks to sports betting, there’s a reason to pay attention to the gala and pageantry of the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl. That contest and the Gator Bowl now have substitute teams, thanks to COVID.
TwinSpires Sportsbook trading analyst Zachary Lucas provided insights on current lines and action for matchups from Dec. 31-Jan. 4 in the college football bowl odds market. Check back regularly for action updates.
College Football Bowl Odds
| Matchup | Time | Spread | Over/Under |
| LSU vs Kansas State | 9 p.m. ET Tuesday | Kansas State -7.5 | 47.5 |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and updated as of 4:15 p.m. ET on Jan. 4
Texas Bowl
LSU vs Kansas State
Opening line: LSU -2.5, Over/Under 46.5
UPDATE 4:15 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Yes, there’s a bowl game tonight. And the line continues to see a lot of movement. Much of that is due to LSU missing three of its best players: Quarterback Max Johnson is transferring to Texas A&M, and linebacker Damone Clark and defensive lineman Neil Farrell opted out to prep for the NFL Draft.
Further, The Athletic reported that the Tigers are down to 39 scholarship players for tonight’s tilt — and zero scholarship QBs. And of course, the program reached a “separation agreement” with coach Ed Orgeron, then lured Brian Kelly away from Notre Dame. Neither Orgeron nor Kelly is coaching LSU tonight.
So after LSU opened as a 2.5-point chalk a month ago, this line has run all the way to Kansas State -7.5 at Caesars Sportsbook. A few hours before kickoff, the Wildcats are landing 71% of spread tickets and 79% of spread dollars.
“A lot of people see LSU had a rough year, but [the Tigers] certainly improved down the stretch once [Ed] Orgeron announced he was leaving,” Pullen said. “I know he’s not coaching tonight, but some people might be enticed by seeing LSU as a 7.5-point underdog. I also think the players that are playing tonight, they have something to prove. Whether they get it done is another story.”
Bettors do seem to think it’s worth firing on LSU moneyline. Ticket count is almost 4/1 on the Tigers, while money is running dead even.
The total actually rose throughout this turmoil, from 46.5 to 48 by Dec. 21, before inching back to 47.5 Monday. It’s two-way action, with 52% of tickets/57% of cash on the Under.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The Texas Bowl takes place three days after all the other bowl games wrap up. So perhaps a more apropos title for this contest would be: What? There’s Still Another Bowl Game Bowl?
And of course, opt-outs (and more) have led to another point spread flip. After LSU coach Ed Orgeron was fired and Brian Kelly hired away from Notre Dame, Tigers QB Max Johnson announced he was transferring to Texas A&M. Linebacker Damone Clark, who led LSU in tackles, opted out to prep for the NFL Draft, as did defensive lineman Neil Farrell.
LSU (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS), which is just two years removed from a national title, had to win its last two games just to get bowl-eligible. The Tigers edged Texas A&M 27-24 as 6-point home underdogs to cap the regular season.
Kansas State (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) ended the regular season with two straight losses. In the finale at Texas, the Wildcats fell 22-17 as 3-point pups.
TwinSpires now has this line at Kansas State -3.5 in its college football bowl odds market. That said, LSU is landing 57% of spread tickets, but 58% of spread cash is on K-State.
“Good two-way action. Sharp play on K-State,” Lucas said.
The total crept from 46.5 to 47, with 65% of tickets on the Under/58% of money on the Over.
Outback Bowl
Arkansas vs Penn State
Opening line: Penn State -4, Over/Under 45
UPDATE 11 A.M. ET SATURDAY: As was the case at all books, this line flipped at Caesars Sportsbook, thanks to Penn State opt-outs/absences/etc. The Nittany Lions opened -4, the number jumped the fence to Arkansas -1 Monday, and it’s now at Razorbacks -3 (-120). Arkansas is netting 60% of spread tickets, but that’s translating into 90% of spread dollars.
The total is up 3 points in the last three days, going from 48 to 51, after opening Dec. 5 at 46. The Over is seeing 72% of bets and a hefty 95% of cash, an hour before kickoff.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Like many bowl games before it, the Outback Bowl saw the point spread flip due to opt-outs/absences/etc. Penn State (7-5 SU and ATS) is down five starters on defense and also won’t have top wideout Jahan Dotson. So after opening as 4-point favorites, the Nittany Lions are now 2.5-point underdogs at TwinSpires.
“Sharp money on Arkansas,” Lucas said, noting the Razorbacks are netting 55% of spread bets/72% of spread money.
Penn State got out of the gate 5-0 this season (4-1 ATS), then crashed out with a 2-5 SU finish (3-4 ATS). In their regular-season finale at Michigan State, the Nittany Lions went off as 3.5-point favorites and lost 30-27.
Arkansas won four of its last five, with the only setback being a respectable 42-35 loss at Alabama as a 20.5-point underdog. The Razorbacks (8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) finished with a 34-17 home win giving 14.5 points against Missouri.
The total advanced from 45 to 48.5, with 80% of tickets/71% of money on the Over.
Citrus Bowl
Kentucky vs Iowa
Opening line: Iowa -1, Over/Under 45
UPDATE 11 A.M. ET SATURDAY: In another fence-jumping matchup, Iowa hit Caesars’ college football bowl odds board as a 1.5-point favorite. Within a day, it was at Kentucky -1, and the Wildcats spent most of December at -3. This morning, the line moved out to Wildcats -3.5. Ticket count is almost dead even, but money is 5/1 on Kentucky. The total fell from 45 to 43.5, with 59% of bets/84% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Iowa learned Dec. 10 that standout running back Tyler Goodson was opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. That helped spur this line from the opener of Iowa -1 to Kentucky -3, where the number sits now. The Wildcats are getting 59% of tickets and 76% of cash on the spread.
“A flood of money has come in on Kentucky in the past week. That’s our biggest liability for the Jan. 1 games,” Lucas said.
Kentucky (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) started out 6-0, lost its next three (to Georgia, Mississippi State, and Tennessee), then closed on a three-game winning streak. The capper was a 52-21 thrashing of instate rival Louisville as a 3-point road pup.
Iowa (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) had a similar up-and-down campaign. The Hawkeyes raced out to a 6-0 start — getting as high as No. 2 in the AP poll — then lost its next two to Purdue (home) and Wisconsin (road) before closing the regular season on a four-game winning streak. That was enough to get Iowa into the Big Ten title game, where it got torched by Michigan 42-3 catching 11.5 points.
The total in this one nudged from 45 to 44.5, with 56% of tickets/55% of money on the Under.
Sun Bowl
Central Michigan vs Washington State
Opening line: Washington State -7, Over/Under 57.5
UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET FRIDAY: In a matchup created just days ago, Washington State opened -7.5 at WynnBet and is now -6. An hour or so before kickoff, the Cougars are attracting 66% of spread bets and 72% of spread money. The total dipped from 57.5 to 56.5, with 74% of bets on the Over, but money split 50/50.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: This matchup got changed on even shorter notice than the Gator Bowl. On Sunday, Miami announced it wouldn’t play due to COVID issues, leaving Washington State with no opponent. On Monday, Boise State dropped out of Friday’s Arizona Bowl, where it was to face Central Michigan. So the Chippewas got a new lease on bowl life with a relatively short trip from Tucson, Ariz., to El Paso, Texas.
The Cougars (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) won three of their last four games SU and enter the Sun Bowl on an 8-1 ATS tear. Washington State capped the regular season with a 40-13 road rout of archrival Washington as a 2.5-point favorite.
Central Michigan (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won and cashed in its last four outings, all double-digit victories. In the finale, the Chippewas coasted past Eastern Michigan 31-10 laying 7.5 points.
After the Central Michigan entered the picture, TwinSpires opened Washington State -7 on its college football bowl odds board, rose to -7.5 and is now -7 again. Central Michigan is landing 62% of tickets and 65% of money on the spread.
“Central Michigan is a popular ‘dog in this one. We’ll need Washington State here,” Lucas said.
The total is stable at 57.5, with 61% of tickets/56% of money on the Over.
Gator Bowl
Rutgers vs Wake Forest
Opening line: Wake Forest -13.5, Over/Under 61.5
UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET FRIDAY: WynnBet posted Wake Forest as a 14-point favorite last week, when Rutgers was substituted in after Texas A&M withdrew. Shortly before kickoff, the Demon Deacons are out to -17.5, while taking 85% of spread bets/92% of spread cash. The total moved from 62 to 63, with 59% of bets/79% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Wake Forest was supposed to face Texas A&M in the first New Year’s Eve bowl game. The Aggies (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) were a helluva lot more attractive, being the only team to beat current No. 1 Alabama this season. But COVID issues, opt-outs, and injuries forced A&M’s hand, and it withdrew Dec. 22. The replacement: a sub-.500 Rutgers squad (5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS).
The Demon Deacons (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) are finishing off one of their most successful seasons. Wake started out 8-0 SU and reached the ACC championship game, where it lost to Pittsburgh 45-21 as a 3.5-point neutral-site pup. Still, 2021 marked just the second double-digit-win season in school history.
On the flip side in this traves-sham-mockery of a matchup is Rutgers, which closed the season in a 2-7 SU/3-6 ATS funk. In the regular-season finale, the Scarlet Knights were 2-point home favorites against Maryland and got rolled, 40-16.
So a week ago, Wake went from being a short underdog against A&M to opening as a 13.5-point chalk against Rutgers. The Demon Deacons are now up to -16, with ticket count 2/1 and money 3/1 on Wake.
“It’s a mix of public and sharp money on Wake Forest. There’s little buyback on Rutgers,” Lucas said.
The total moved from 61.5 to 62.5, then to 62 today, with 78% of tickets/85% of money on the Over.
“We’ll need the Under for a sizable amount,” Lucas said.
