The Eagles are favored after a surprising run to the Super Bowl. The game’s projected as a shootout between two high-powered and uptempo offenses. As a result, a few overs for rushing and receiving props are intriguing for a pair of Philadelphia’s stars and an ancillary weapon. Let’s dive into the top three Eagles player props for Super Bowl 57.
Philadelphia Eagles Player Props: Super Bowl 57
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Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
First, let’s address the negatives. Jalen Hurts had under 49.5 rushing yards 10 times in 17 games. Second, his median was 38 rushing yards. Again, that total is under 49.5 rushing yards. Fortunately, the Eagles have to use every weapon at their disposal this week, and the matchup is good.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Chiefs allowed the fifth-most rushing yards (444) to the opposing quarterbacks in the regular season. Second, mobile quarterbacks gashed them. Specifically, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, Malik Willis, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Trevor Lawrence combined for 325 rushing yards on 49 attempts (excluding kneels). Thus, the mobile quarterbacks steamrolled them for 6.6 yards per carry.
At that rate, Hurts would need only eight attempts to eclipse 49.5 rushing yards. He’s rushed at least eight times in 13 of 17 games this year. Additionally, Hurts runs behind an elite offensive line, and the game’s pace should be blistering. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Eagles were the third-best run-blocking team this season. And according to Football Outsiders, the Eagles are first in situation-neutral pace, and the Chiefs are third. The speedy pace should allow both teams to run tons of plays, enhancing the appeal of chasing overs. Hurts’s rushing over is among the most appealing options.
Where to bet: Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 Rushing Yards | -113 at Caesars Sportsbook
DeVonta Smith Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
DeVonta Smith was unphased by the addition of A.J. Brown to the Eagles. Instead, he improved his production in his sophomore campaign. The second-year wideout averaged 70.4 receiving yards per game in the regular season.
Sadly, he posted a bagel in Week 1. It’s been all roses since then, though. Further, he’s done his best work down the stretch. Since Week 11, Smith had more than 61.5 receiving yards seven times in 10 games. Yes, he fell short of that mark in both playoff games. Still, those were blowouts. This game should be much closer.
The matchup is good, too. According to The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions, receivers had 671 receiving yards in the last six weeks of the regular season (Week 13 through Week 18) against the Chiefs. Then, they had 365 against Kansas City in two playoff games. So, they’ve averaged 129.5 receiving yards per game against the Chiefs since Week 13.
Moreover, there were eight instances of a receiver having more than 61.5 receiving yards against the Chiefs since Week 13. Specifically, Ja’Marr Chase (97 in Week 13 and 75 receiving yards in the Conference Championship), Jerry Jeudy (73 in Week 14), D.K. Metcalf (81 in Week 16), Davante Adams (73 in Week 18), Hunter Renfrow (63 in Week 18), Zay Jones (83 in the Divisional Round), and Tee Higgins (83 in the Conference Championship) had more than 61.5 receiving yards against the Chiefs in the previous eight games. Encouragingly, the Bengals had two stud wideouts surpass 61.5 receiving yards in the AFC Conference Championship against the Chiefs, providing evidence Brown and Smith can get theirs against the Chiefs.
There’s enough meat on the bone for both superstar receivers, and I side with the game’s high total, expecting a back-and-forth shootout. So, let’s snag another over and take Smith’s for over 61.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: DeVonta Smith Over 61.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Kenneth Gainwell Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
No one will confuse Kenneth Gainwell for a game-changing talent. However, the second-year back is Philadelphia’s receiving back. According to PFF, he’s run the most routes (22) in Philadelphia’s backfield in the postseason, running more than Miles Sanders’s 15. Further, since Week 15, Gainwell topped the backfield in routes, running 86 versus 65 for Sanders and 45 for Boston Scott.
Gainwell’s had more than 10.5 receiving yards in three of his last five games, including tallying 26 receiving yards against the 49ers last week. Meanwhile, running backs have terrorized the Chiefs through the air. They’ve averaged 40.5 receiving yards per game against Kansas City since Week 13. During that stretch, Travis Etienne (18 receiving yards), Joe Mixon (15), Malon Mack (62), Mike Boone (27), Latavius Murray (16), Chase Edmonds (39), Samaje Perine (49), DeeJay Dallas (32), and Rex Burkhead (17) had more than 10.5 receiving yards. So, that’s nine backs who’ve had more than 10.5 receiving yards against the Chiefs in their last eight games, including both playoff contests.
Sadly, Hurts doesn’t frequently target his running backs. Nevertheless, the bar is low for Gainwell, who has recently cleared it a few times. And the positive matchup should enhance the likelihood of Gainwell garnering opportunities through the air this week. As a result, I’m betting Gainwell’s over for 10.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Kenneth Gainwell Over 10.5 Receiving Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
