We’ll break down our best World Series props and picks for every game of this blockbuster series between the Yankees and Dodgers.
Our staff will check all the top daily fantasy sites and deliver their best pick, so make sure you check back and get your picks in early before the projections change. We even have a list of betting strategies and tips at the bottom of the page for all of your World Series betting needs.
So let the final series of the MLB season begin with our top pick for Game 1 below.
Yankees vs. Dodgers World Series Picks: Game 1
Justin Bales unveils his best World Series pick for Game 1.
On the hunt for more MLB World Series props analysis? Make sure to check out our other content linked below.
Gerrit Cole Less Than 15.5 Pitching Outs
Cole’s been an up-and-down pitcher in the 2024 MLB playoffs. He’s thrown 5 or fewer innings in two of his four starts, but he recorded 6.2+ innings in the other two. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start, but that shows how quickly a team is willing to pull their pitchers.
We aren’t in the regular season where teams are trying to save their bullpen and allow starters to work their way through difficult situations. In the World Series, pitchers are going to have short leashes, and they’re going to get pulled before they can get into trouble several times.
Cole gets a terrible matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who feature the hottest offense in the MLB. They’re playing at an extremely high level, and that’s specifically in terms of when they put the ball in play. Los Angeles is also elite at running the count deep, and they own an 11% walk rate over the last 14 days.
Cole hasn’t featured his elite control at all times throughout the season, and he could struggle to throw deep into a game against an offense like Los Angeles.
Where to play: Gerrit Cole Less Than 15.5 pitching outs | PrizePicks
MLB World Series Prop Betting Tips and Strategy
Make sure to follow these tips and strategies to get the most value out of your World Series props picking and MLB betting.
Know the History of the World Series MVP Award
Flying blindly is a recipe for losing money. Having some action on who will win the World Series MVP is fun, but it’s more fun cashing that bet than flushing money on a losing wager. So, it stands to reason that history can guide the likeliest outcomes for the World Series MVP winner this year.
According to Baseball Reference, Bobby Richardson, in 1960 for the New York Yankees, was the only World Series MVP on a losing team. The award has been around since 1955. So, it’s safe to say the deck is stacked against everyone from the World Series losing squad. If you have a strong opinion about which team will win the World Series, sprinkling something a player from that team or a few players to win the MVP Award is a reasonable way to attack World Series future betting.
According to FOX Sports, pitchers have won the World Series MVP Award 29 times, the most for any position. However, modern history hasn’t been kind to pitchers. A position player has won the World Series MVP in the previous four years, eight of 10, and 13 of 15. Thus, a position player on the World Series championship team is the most likely to win the World Series MVP based on recent history.
Expect Offensive Fireworks and Bet Accordingly
The Yankees and Dodgers have elite offenses. According to FanGraphs, LA was first in wRC+ (118), and New York was second in wRC+ (117) in the regular season. They were above average in all meaningful splits.
The Dodgers were first in wRC+ (121), and the Yankees were tied for ninth in wRC+ (107) versus lefties. Los Angeles was second in wRC+ (117) versus righties, and New York was first in wRC+ (120).
Both teams treated their home fans to fireworks. The Dodgers were first in wRC+ (123) at home, and the Yankees were fifth in wRC+ (116). Their bats also traveled. LA was tied for second in wRC+ (114) on the road, and New York was first in wRC+ (117). No matter how you slice it, the Dodgers and the Bronx Bombers have elite offenses.
Unsurprisingly, they’ve had success exceeding their over/under totals. Per Covers, New York’s games went over 86 times, under 69 times, and pushed seven times in the regular season, and they’ve gone 4-4-1 in the postseason but gone over in three of their last four games. Meanwhile, LA’s games went over 89 times, under 68 times, and pushed five times in the regular season before going 9-1-1 in the playoffs. Dodgers’ games have gone over in six straight.
Beware of Quick Hooks
Playoff baseball is different than the regular season. Teams have more off days and are laying it all on the line to win their series. As a result, it’s common for starting pitchers to get an early hook if they’re not sharp or if a manager is concerned about a lineup seeing them multiple times.
The Dodgers have played 11 games in this year’s playoffs. Jack Flaherty pitched 7.0 innings and struck out six batters in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series against the New York Mets. It was one of just three instances of a starter striking out at least six batters for the Dodgers in the playoffs, and they’ve struck out two or fewer in the other eight starts. Flaherty’s 7.0 innings were also a high, as LA’s starters have recorded fewer than 15 outs seven times in the playoffs. The Dodgers have had a few bullpen games, but manager Dave Roberts has also used his starters as five-and-dive or shorter pitchers in the playoffs this year.
Aaron Boone doesn’t appear to be as quick with his hook. The Yankees have played nine games in this year’s playoffs, and their starting pitcher has gone at least 6.0 innings twice and 5.0 innings once. However, a look under the hood shows Gerrit Cole is skewing those numbers, as he pitched 5.0 innings in Game 1 of the American League Division Series, 7.0 in Game 4 of the American League Division Series, and Carlos Rodon pitched 6.0 in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series. Their starters pitched 3.2, 4.2, 4.1, 4.2, 4.0, and 4.2 innings in the six other contests.
The platoon hitters could also get removed early for a pinch-hitter. Furthermore, slower runners or lousy defenders are prone to getting lifted for a pinch-runner or a defensive replacement. So, before chasing overs for player props, ask yourself if the player you want to bet the over for is at risk of being removed early.
Understand What You’re Betting
There are a multitude of bets available for the World Series. As always, you must be aware of what you’re betting. Moneylines, run lines, player props, futures, and more are different types of bets that win at different times.
If you aren’t aware of the type of bet you’re making, you could be making the wrong bet. For example, if you believe the Los Angeles Dodgers will win the game, but you bet the run line instead of the moneyline, they could win the game and you lose your bet.
The most important part of any type of gambling is understanding the type of bet you’re making and how it wins.
Pitchers Are On Short Leashes
There are several reasons pitchers have shortened leashes in the playoffs. First, it’s the end of the season and most important pitchers have thrown an excessive amount of innings. Their arms can only handle so much work in a season.
There’s very little room for error in the playoffs as well. If a pitcher gets into trouble, managers generally go to their bullpen quicker than in the regular season. Even the best starters aren’t always given the green light to pitch their way out of trouble in the World Series.
Ultimately, this makes it more difficult for pitchers to throw deep into games and record strikeouts. It may help their earned runs, though, as they aren’t consistently allowed to get into trouble.
Look For Hot Hitters
One of the most important aspects in the playoffs is who is hot. We saw it this season with the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets. A team doesn’t need the best roster in the MLB to make runs as long as their players are hot.
Baseball is a game of hot and cold streaks, and that’s more true for this sport than basically any other. The key spot is a great hitter who is also hot entering the World Series. Average hitters who are on hot streaks still generally find more success than good hitters who have been cold.
If you’re looking for hitters, there’s no real reason to attack players who are ice cold rather than those who are coming into a game on a hot streak.