Week 9 officially begins with the New York Jets facing the Indianapolis Colts after thrilling contests for both in Week 9. We have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Props to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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Michael Carter UNDER 49.5 Rushing Yards
Michael Carter is an ascending talent in his rookie year. Unfortunately, he has a two-fold uphill battle this week to surpass 49.5 rushing yards.
First, according to Football Outsiders, the Colts rank first in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Colts hold opposing running backs to 3.87 yards per rush attempt. Second, the Jets are 10.5-point underdogs.
So, he has the worst matchup for rushing success and a likely negative game script on the docket. Since he’ll need volume to hit his over and doesn’t project to receive the requisite carries to best 49.5 rushing yards, I’ll gleefully hop on his under. Enhancing my confidence level in this pick, Bet Prep projects him for only 46.09 rushing yards.
Carson Wentz UNDER 244.5 Passing Yards
Carson Wentz is in the same game-script boat as Carter from the other side of things. As 10.5-point favorites, the Colts can likely bleed the clock by force-feeding stud running back Jonathan Taylor. In addition, the Colts have illustrated a preference to pound the rock on the ground when leading by a field goal or more. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin is leading by three points or more, the Colts pass at only a 49% clip, one percent below the league average under those scoring parameters.
Also, the game’s pace isn’t likely to do Wentz any favors bypassing 244.5 passing yards. According to Football Outsiders, the Jets are playing at the seventh-slowest situation neutral pace. Additionally, the Colts are playing even slower, sporting the second-slowest situation neutral pace. Therefore, this looks like an ugly slow-paced game.
Finally, Wentz is averaging only 240.8 passing yards per game. He’s fallen short of 244.5 passing yards in five of eight games, five of those coming in his last six games. So understandably, Bet Prep aligns with my pick, projecting Wentz for only 227.48 passing yards.
Zach Pascal UNDER 39.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s close the show by riding this pace slog to another under. Sure, Zach Pascal’s standing in Indy’s passing-attack hierarchy rises with T.Y. Hilton out. Nonetheless, he’s extremely inefficient by a pair of measures.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, out of 152 qualified pass-catchers this year, Pascal’s 6.1 yards per target ties for 122nd. Damning his ugly yards per target more is that the list includes running backs and tight ends in addition to receivers. Further, according to Pro Football Focus, out of 89 receivers targeted at least 20 times, Pascal’s 0.92 yards per route run tie for 82nd.
The inefficient fourth-year pro is averaging only 32.6 receiving yards per game. At his best, he recorded 48 receiving yards in a Week 5 overtime shootout. However, Pascal’s come up short of 39.5 receiving yards in half of his games played this year.
Last week, he needed eight targets against the most-giving defense to receivers to total 43 receiving yards. This game doesn’t project to be a shootout, and while the Jets aren’t a stingy pass defense, they’re not basement dwellers like he faced last week.
Finally, once again, Bet Prep supports this pick. They project him for only 29.69 receiving yards. So let’s make it three for three by locking in Pascal’s under for 39.5 receiving yards.
