Week 12 officially begins on Thursday. However, it’s not just any Thursday. It’s Thanksgiving, so we’re treated to three games, and we have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Props to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
DeSean Jackson OVER 7.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
DeSean Jackson requested and was granted his release from the Los Angeles Rams a few weeks ago due to dissatisfaction with his role in their offense. Unfortunately, according to Pro-Football-Reference, he has played only 25 offensive snaps for the Las Vegas Raiders in two games. Further, according to Pro Football Focus, he’s run only 15 routes for Las Vegas.
Nevertheless, things are trending in the right direction. Jackson doubled both his offensive snap percentage (17% to 34%) and routes (five to 10) from his first game to his second game. Also, before last week’s game, D-Jax reportedly told interim head coach Rich Bisaccia that he’s “feeling more comfortable.” So Jackson’s statement, coupled with his upward trajectory in playing time and routes, was a plus. Additionally, Bisaccia mentioned having multiple packages planned for D-Jax, indicating the speedy wideout wasn’t on the field in the two-minute drill at the end of the game because it wasn’t something they had ready for him yet.
Yes, it’s a short week. Nevertheless, Jackson has had more time to assimilate the playbook. Also, he’s already making his presence felt on the field, evidenced by the following tweet.
DeSean Jackson was only in a route on 30% of the Raiders’ dropbacks on Sunday but he demanded double or help coverage on 6 of 10 routes.
40% of Darren Waller’s yardage came on plays with Jackson on the field drawing away defenders.
Bryan Edwards drew help on 14% of routes.
— Context Matters (@dwainmcfarland) November 23, 2021
The Raiders should recognize what Jackson brings to the table and utilize him more. I think they will. And Jackson’s field-stretching is a perfect fit against the Dallas Cowboys. According to Sharp Football Stats, Dallas allows the seventh-highest average explosive pass rate (10%). Even in D-Jax’s minimal role so far, he caught one pass for 38 yards in his debut and ran for four yards last week. Thus, even a minor uptick in usage should be enough for him to eclipse 7.5 rushing plus receiving yards.
Ezekiel Elliott OVER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
The Cowboys are 7.0-point favorites in a game with a total of 51.5 points, leaving them with an implied total of 29.25 points. Thus, a little back of the napkin math leaves a projection of around four touchdowns for the Cowboys. That’s an intriguing starting point for touchdown props.
Further, Ezekiel Elliott is an excellent selection to score for the Cowboys. In this case, he needs to score via rushing the ball to go over the 0.5 rushing touchdown prop, and I like his odds of doing so when diving into Dallas’ red-zone stats and the Raiders’ defensive ranks. According to FantasyPros, inside the five-yard line, Dallas has attempted 14 passes, four quarterback runs, one rush for Tony Pollard, and 12 rush attempts for Zeke. Elliott punctuated six of those 12 attempts with touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Raiders are tied for the ninth-most rushing touchdowns (eight) allowed to running backs this season. So, I expect Zeke to tote the rock in scoring territory for the Cowboys. Thankfully, Bet Prep slightly leans toward Elliott, eclipsing his rushing touchdown prop with a projection of 0.51 rushing touchdowns.
Zack Moss UNDER 21.5 Rushing Yards
I’m not just going to behave like a donkey and chase overs. So instead, I’ll hop on an under that jumped off the Underdog Fantasy page at me. Zack Moss stinks, and his lackluster usage is taking a nosedive. Moss hasn’t rushed the ball more than eight times since Week 5, and he’s rushed only 13 times for 38 yards in the last three games combined.
For the year, he’s averaging a pathetic 3.5 yards per rush attempt. Moss’s playing time is a red flag for his production, too. He played only 28% of the offensive snaps in Week 9, exiting the game with a concussion. Moss played in 48% of the Buffalo Bills’ offensive snaps in Week 10 before sliding to 29% in Week 11.
In the previous two weeks, Moss’s sub-50% offensive snap share coincides with Matt Breida jumping into the backfield mix. In addition, Breida has been the most effective back in the committee.
I would like Moss’s under for 21.5 rushing yards even in a matchup against a mid-pack rush defense. However, Moss’s assignment is even more challenging this week. In fact, his matchup couldn’t be more difficult. According to Football Outsiders, the New Orleans Saints are first in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Finally, they’ve yielded the second-fewest rushing yards (656) to running backs at a paltry 3.18 yards per rush attempt. Moss hasn’t done anything to suggest he can have any success against the Saints’ stout run defense.
