Week 3 comes to a close with a Monday Night Football showdown between NFC East rivals. This awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy picks. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 3.
Receiving Yards: Zach Ertz +19.5 Receiving Yards Vs. Dallas Goedert
I don’t think anyone questions who is the more efficient and better all-around tight end at this point in Ertz’s and Goedert’s careers. The younger Goedert is better and more well-rounded. However, that last part about being well-rounded is the crux of my argument for taking the yardage with Ertz.
According to Pro Football Focus, Goedert’s played 50 passing snaps compared to only 42 for Ertz. However, the Eagles used him to pass block on six of those, and he’s run 41 routes. Comparatively, Ertz hasn’t been used to pass block at all and run 40 routes. In addition, Ertz has run just one fewer route than Goedert.
In addition, Goedert has lined up in the slot 22 times and wide twice. Meanwhile, Ertz has played the slot 25 times and wide six. The grizzled veteran Ertz is being used as a big-bodied receiver. Comparatively, Goedert is used more like a traditional tight end.
Through two games, Goedert has seven targets, six receptions, and 66 receiving yards. Lagging slightly behind him is Ertz with targets, three receptions, and 40 receiving yards. I do not see enough usage gap to lay 19.5 yards with Goedert, so I’ll take them with Ertz. BetPrep agrees, projecting Goedert for 38.16 receiving yards and Ertz for 24.33 receiving yards, a gap of only 14.28 yards tilting Goedert’s way.
Dak Prescott UNDER 315.5 Total Yards
My initial lean was toward the under on Prescott’s gaudy total yards prop. Checking BetPrep furthered that lean before diving in even deeper. BetPrep projects him for 261.45 passing yards and 9.2 rushing yards, leaving him a massive 44.85 yards short of his prop. I can’t ignore an enormous projection gap like that.
Digging deeper, we’ve seen offensive coordinator Kellen Moore use two vastly different game plans through two games. Against the Buccanneers’ stout run defense in Week 1, he bypassed that strength by calling upon Prescott for 58 pass attempts. Last week, facing a less potent run defense and more stout secondary, Prescott attempted only 27 passes, and the team leaned heavily on the rushing attack. In addition, in Prescott’s return from last year’s season-ending injury, he’s not adding much on the ground with four rushes for 13 yards.
As for this week, will the Cowboys lean more heavily on the run or pass? I’m guessing the former. Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles sixth in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 18th in rush defense DVOA. Armed with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, Moore has ample backfield ammunition to attack Philadelphia’s great susceptibility on the ground than through the air. Therefore, I’ll take the under on 313.5 total yards for Prescott.
Jalen Reagor OVER 3.5 Receptions
Reagor fell short of his over when I touted him to hit it in Week 2. It’s essential to have a short memory and not hold grudges on missed wagers. To that point, I’m back on the over again. The second-year receiver is still the number-two option in Philadelphia’s passing game, despite an underwhelming Week 2 showing.
Reagor’s five targets last week ranked second to DeVonta Smith’s seven, and his two receptions were in a five-way tie for the most on the club. Reagor’s 51 routes are comfortably the second-most on the team for the season, as they’re 10 more than Goedert’s mark in third. Further, he’s 17 routes clear of Quez Watkins’ 34 for the second-highest total among wideouts.
Unfortunately, one reason for Reagor’s catch efficiency cratering from Week 1 to Week 2 was a drastic usage change. He tallied an average depth of target of 1.2 yards downfield in the opener that surged to 18.2 yards in Week 2. Deeper passes are harder to complete. Thus, he caught only two of five passes compared to reeling in all six in the opener.
I’m optimistic Reagor will receive more short-area targets this week. Jalen Hurts’ production dipped in Week 2 with a reversal to last year’s habits of deep passes rather than quick, high-efficiency, short targets in Week 1. I don’t think that’s lost on the new head coach and play-caller Nick Sirianni. If he dials Hurts’ pass length back with more short, quick-throw play calls, Reagor should see a few more easy-catch opportunities, enhancing his outlook for hitting the over. Further, his varied usage leaves the door open for a long reception or two, so it’s not necessarily a bad thing he’s used in multiple ways. Ultimately, I think he sneaks over 3.5 receptions, and BetPrep agrees with a projection of 3.6 receptions.
