The Monday Night Football contest between the Miami Dolphins at the New Orleans Saints awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Week 16. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 16.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards
Jaylen Waddle is back after a one-game absence on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Unfortunately, we don’t have many examples of Miami’s full complement of weapons and Tua Tagovailoa playing together this year. Nonetheless, Waddle is Tua’s favorite option in the passing game even when DeVante Parker is healthy.
In Week 1, Week 2, Week 8, and Week 13, Tagovailoa, Waddle, and Parker played. Tua attempted 111 passes in those games, directing a team-high 31 (27.9% target share) to Waddle for a team-leading 18 receptions and 261 air yards.
The matchup is good this week as well. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Saints allow the fourth-most receiving yards (2,451) to wideouts this year. They’re also more difficult to run against than pass against, evidenced by ranking first in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and sixth in pass defense DVOA.
Obviously, we watched the Saints put the clamps on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. However, it’s unwise to let recency bias skew your perception too much. As a result, Bet Prep projects Waddle for 68.0 receiving yards, making the over for Waddle’s yardage pick the correct selection.
Mike Gesicki OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards
A second over in Miami’s passing attack? Yes. You’re reading this correctly. Thankfully, there’s plenty of meat on the bone in the offense. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin is between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points, the Dolphins pass at the fourth-highest rate (62%). Moreover, the Saints are tied for the 10th-most pass attempts (507) faced, supporting the notion teams prefer to take to the air instead of running into the teeth of their stout run defense.
Also, do you remember the stat about New Orleans’ coughing up yardage to receivers in Waddle’s analysis? Well, that is an appropriate stat to note for Mike Gesicki, too. Sure, he’s listed as a tight end on the depth chart. However, according to Pro Football Focus, Gesicki has lined up inline only 25 times on passing snaps versus wide for 152 and in the slot for 321. Thus, he’s essentially a big wideout.
Also, of note, talented safety Malcolm Jenkins is on the reserve/COVID-19 list, removing a player capable of making Gesicki’s life difficult from the equation. Finally, Gesicki has surpassed 39.5 receiving yards in 11 of 14 games. So, Bet Prep projects Gesicki for 43.51 receiving yards tonight.
Mark Ingram OVER 8.5 Receiving Yards
Sometimes, low yardage totals like this feel like a trap to pick the over. However, this one looks like a legitimately good bargain. Obviously, Mark Ingram is the second back on the Saints, backing up Alvin Kamara. However, head coach Sean Payton has involved Ingram in the passing game.
In the last three games Ingram and Kamara have played together, Ingram has run 36 routes. Is that an eye-catching total? No. It’s not. However, he’s been targeted nine times, good for a 25% target rate on routes run, hauling in each of his targets for 54 receiving yards.
In addition, Payton might dial up some extra looks for his running backs, with rookie Ian Book making his first NFL start. NFL analyst Lance Zierlein explicitly notes Book’s lackluster arm strength and struggles to throw outside the numbers in his scouting report for this year’s NFL Draft. Therefore, it stands to reason Payton will concoct some easy throws to mitigate Book’s arm-strength issues.
Finally, Ingram has gone over 8.5 receiving yards in four of six games with the Saints, including two with Kamara in the lineup. Once again, Bet Prep supports my pick, projecting Ingram for 12.63 passing yards.
