When UFC 276 was first announced with Israel Adesanya defending his Middleweight Belt against another strong-but-not-elite Middleweight Jared Cannonier, it originally felt like a forced Pay-Per-View. The only Middleweight anyone talked about to actually threaten the belt was Robert Whittaker – and Adesanya just knocked him out of title contention at UFC 271 in February.
Then it was announced that Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski would return to the octagon just two months after his most recent title defense to defend his belt again in the co-main event. With the news that he’ll be completing the trilogy against Featherweight legend Max Holloway, the card suddenly looks filled with potential all-time striking battles.
DraftKings UFC 276 Double Parlay Boost
The rest of the main card projects to be strike-heavy as well, setting bettors up for some juicy UFC same-game parlay picks (SGP) offered through DraftKings.
The icing on the cake is that DraftKings will be offering a 100% profit boost on one UFC 276 SGP of your choice of three legs or more for the event.
With the help of our predictive model that takes into account previous striking and grappling ratios plus average octagon time from official ufcstats.com data, we’ve compiled a few UFC 276 predictions and bundled them into three separate parlays. That should help you enjoy the fights a little more and (hopefully) line your pockets on Saturday night.
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UFC 276 Predictions & Parlays
Israel Adesanya (22-1) vs. Jared Cannonier (15-5)
- Leg 1: Moneyline (3 Way): Israel Adesanya (-475)
- Leg 2: Total Rounds: Over 1.5 (-380)
- Leg 3: Most Significant Strikes: Israel Adesanya (-525)
This one is our “safe” parlay, which may appeal to bettors looking to nab DraftKings parlay boost.
There is a high probability that Cannonier just gets completely outclassed in striking by Adesanya. Based on their previous striking output and defense, our model projects the fight will last 3.4 rounds with 93 strikes landing for Adesanya and 77 for Cannonier.
What the model cannot account for is that Cannonier has never stood in the octagon with a fighter of Adesanya’s striking caliber. Adesanya is extremely long and rangy for the weight class, which leads many to underestimate his power. More than once a talented Middleweight who has never been finished in the UFC has tried to stand toe-to-toe with Adesanya, and more than once the Champ knocked them out in the middle of the second round. There is a slight chance of a takedown from Cannonier which could extend the fight, but even the most elite wrestlers in Middleweight have been unable to hold Adesanya down for long.
While I do expect Adesanya to respect Cannonier’s power early on and rely on his range for a couple of rounds, we cannot rule out an early finish. Even with the conservative round total, this SGP allows us to back Adesanya with much better odds than his straight moneyline, which stands at -450.
Parlay Odds: -140 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Alexander Volkanovski (24-1) vs. Max Holloway (23-6)
- Leg 1: Total Significant Strikes: 230+ (-350)
- Leg 2: Total Rounds: Over 3.5 (-360)
- Leg 3: Most Significant Strikes: Alexander Volkanovski (-195)
This bout is truly a clash of legends. With 6 losses, Holloway’s record might not look like that of an all-time great. However, those losses came at the hands of notably bigger fighters who are also legends of the game (Dustin Poirier and “The Notorious” Conor McGregor), and the Hawaiian has not been afraid to go up to Lightweight to fight them.
As mentioned above, Volkanovski and Holloway have already fought twice. Volkanovski took the belt from Holloway in a tight unanimous decision, and he subsequently defended it from Holloway via a razor-thin split decision. The first bout was exclusively striking, but Volkanovski utilized some takedowns to steal the fight back from Holloway whenever he was losing the second fight on the feet. The following fights for both men against different opponents showed they are both still getting better with each fight, and I believe we will be treated to another slugfest with neither man showing any weakness until the final horn.
With both fighters showing some knockout power against lesser fighters, our model projects the fight to go into the late 4th round with 155 strikes landing for the Champ and 148 for Holloway. This clears our parlay total of 230 significant strikes, but we want to leave plenty of cushion there. 230 is a number they reached in each of their previous clashes. Both strikers possess elite accuracy and output, but Volkanovski shows elite defense while Holloway is content to stand close and eat some shots. This leaves us confident in the Champ leading the strike total for the 3rd straight time.
Parlay Odds: -105 at Draftkings Sportsbook
Robbie Lawler (29-15) vs. Bryan Barberena (17-8)
- Leg 1: Total Significant Strikes: 100+ (-275)
- Leg 2: Most Significant Strikes: Bryan Barberena (-200)
Now 40 years old, Robbie Lawler is far-removed from his days as UFC Welterweight Champion. Yet he still possesses the toughness that is his brand and won’t back down from any punch if it means a chance to land his own.
Bryan Barberena is another veteran Welterweight with proven toughness that racks up high strike totals. Both fighters will likely relish the opportunity to stand on their feet and throw their hands after recent bouts with relentless grapplers, setting us up for another slugfest.
Our model projects the fight to just make it into the third round, with 85 significant strikes landing for Barberena and 54 for Lawler. Lawler still looks in fighting shape, but his cardio seems to decline with each fight at this point in his career. Both the numbers and logic support Barbarena as the smart bet to land more strikes. Even if they don’t make it the distance in this three-round fight, 100 total strikes are well within our projection. Just 2 legs get us to even money here.
Parlay Odds: +100 at DraftKings Sportsbook
