The NBA Playoffs are in full swing and so are our NBA props.
We have two potential elimination games on Thursday, starting with Philadelphia vs Miami at 7 p.m. ET. The Heat cruised to a massive victory in Game 5, but the 76ers will have the benefit of home court in Game 6. The same goes for the Mavericks, who will be back at home after a huge loss at Phoenix in Game 5. Will either of these teams be able to stave off elimination, or will the Heat and Suns punch their tickets to the conference finals?
Overall, this should be an excellent night of NBA action, so let’s dive into our top NBA props from Thursday’s two-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 12 p.m. ET on May 12.
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76ers vs Heat Player Prop Bets
Miami Heat: C Bam Adebayo
The prop: 7.5 rebounds (at Philadelphia)
The odds: Over -130/Under +100
Adebayo wasn’t really needed in the Heat’s last playoff game. Miami cruised to an easy 35-point victory, which limited Adebayo to just 27.6 minutes. He averaged 33.4 minutes over the first four games of this series, so he should see a nice boost in playing time on Thursday.
Adebayo also seems like a solid buy-low target from a rebounding perspective. He’s been mediocre on the glass in this series, but he averaged 10.1 rebounds per game during the regular season. The 76ers aren’t a particularly tough matchup from a rebounding perspective – they rank just 21st in team rebound rate – so there’s no reason Adebayo should fall short of eight boards on Thursday.
Editor’s Note: New to NBA Props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Philadelphia 76ers: F Tobias Harris
The prop: 14.5 points (vs. Miami)
The odds: Over -120/Under -105
The 76ers are going to need a better performance on Thursday if they’re going to force a decisive Game 7. Unfortunately, their best player is clearly banged up at the moment. Joel Embiid is officially listed as questionable, and while he’s unlikely to sit out a potential elimination game, he will be operating at less than full strength. He’s posted a usage rate of just 26.3 percent since returning to the lineup in Game 3 of this series, which represents a massive decrease from his mark of 37.2 percent during the regular season.
Additionally, James Harden looks like a shell of his former self. He’s averaged just 19.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game in this series while shooting just 40 percent from the field. He’s also racked up 5.0 turnovers per game, so he’s struggled in all facets of the game.
With that in mind, the 76ers are going to need someone like Harris to step up on Thursday. He’s capable of providing a bit more scoring if needed, averaging 17.2 points per game during the regular season. He scored at least 21 points in the first two games of this series, so he has more scoring upside than he’s shown recently.
Mavericks vs Suns Player Prop Bets
Dallas Mavericks: PG Jalen Brunson
The prop: 3.5 assists (vs. Phoenix)
The odds: Over +135/Under -180
This prop went down in flames in the Mavericks’ last game, which the Mavericks ultimately lost by 30 points. It goes without saying that it’s hard to rack up assists when your team manages 80 points, especially since Brunson had 21 of them.
Still, the over on Brunson’s assist prop is set at +135, which is incredibly juicy. Brunson averaged 4.8 assists per game during the regular season, and he racked up at least four assists in two straight games prior to his last outing. He also remains involved as a passer during the playoffs, averaging 7.7 potential assists per game. That ranks second on the Mavs, trailing only Luka Doncic’s mark of 13.9. The Mavericks will have their backs against the wall in an elimination game, so expect a few additional minutes for Brunson, as well.
Add it all up, and I’m willing to go down with this ship once again.
Phoenix Suns: PG Chris Paul
The prop: 8.5 assists (at Dallas)
The odds: Over -140/Under +105
Paul is one of the best point guards in NBA history, and his team is on the verge of making it to the Western Conference finals once again. Paul has more than his fair share of haters due to his lack of playoff success, but this might be his best chance of getting a ring.
Paul’s numbers as a distributor have dwindled recently, racking up eight assists or fewer in five of his past six games. However, he bounced back with 10 dimes in his last outing, and he averaged 10.8 assists per game during the regular season. Paul is playing roughly two additional minutes per game during the playoffs as well, so his assist prop being set at just 8.5 represents a tremendous value. Paul has averaged 15.6 potential assists per game during the playoffs, and he had 17.0 in his last game. I love the “Point God” in Game 6.
