Super Bowl props are now filling odds boards at sportsbooks from coast to coast in advance of Sunday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.
Throughout the week leading up to Super Bowl 56 in Inglewood, California, Props.com will offer up our five favorite Super Bowl props for each teams’ skill position group on offense, as well as our top five defensive, kicker/punter, and special teams props. We’ll also break down five game-specific props; best bets for player to score the first touchdown; and even our favorite cross-sport props.
Yes, consider us your one-stop prop shop for Rams vs. Bengals. So be sure to check back all week for comprehensive and (we hope!) compelling Super Bowl 56 betting coverage.
Next up: Our top five Super Bowl props involving Los Angeles Rams’ running back Cam Akers.
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and updated as of 3 p.m. ET on Feb. 8.
Rushing Yards
The prop: 63.5 Rushing Yards
The odds: Over -135/Under +105
There’s a chance you have heard somebody recommend backing Akers to go Over his rushing total. After all, it’s one of the most popular player props for Super Bowl 56. Heck, at this point, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a billboard in Times Square promoting this pick.
Is it the right move, though? Keep in mind that this number started at 58.5. Then came the flood of Akers-Over action that steamed it all the way to 63.5 (with significant juice to boot). It’s pretty rare to see a prop move that far in such a short amount of time.
So, why are bettors so enamored of Akers, who missed the entire regular season after tearing his Achilles early in training camp? Because Cincinnati has gotten trounced on the ground in the playoffs. Across three postseason games, opposing running backs have gained 312 yards on 55 carries against the Bengals. That’s a fat 5.67 yards per tote.
Despite those numbers, though, it’s difficult to believe there’s any value left on the Over side of this prop after such a drastic line move. In fact, it’s possible the Under might be the way to go now, for several reasons (and not just the odds value). Let’s delve into some of those reasons …
Rushing Attempts
The prop: 16.5 Rushing Attempts
The odds: Over -120/Under -110
Akers beat most of the projected timelines by returning from his Achilles injury in time for the Rams’ regular-season finale against the 49ers. However, he only saw limited action, finishing with 3 yards on five carries. So we’ll throw that game out for purposes of analyzing this prop.
Akers’ workload has ramped up in the playoffs, as he had 17, 24, and 13 carries against the Cardinals, Buccaneers and 49ers, respectively. At the same time, backfield mate Sony Michel, who became the Rams’ primary back when Darrell Henderson went on injured reserve late in the season, has seen his usage decline. Michel has tallied 13, 1, and 10 carries in the postseason.
Clearly, Akers is the top running back for Los Angeles, and he would benefit from a positive game script that calls for ball control (and run plays) in the second half. However, it’s quite possible that Michel could get the hot hand and take some carries away from Akers. It’s also possible that Henderson, who is eligible to come off IR, will be activated and eat up some carries, too.
Don’t forget that Akers lost two fumbles against Tampa Bay in the divisional round — miscues that almost ended L.A.’s season. Will head coach Sean McVay tolerate another turnover? And what do we make of Akers’ lingering shoulder injury? Could he also lose a few carries because of that?
All these factors suggest the Under is the stronger bet at more favorable odds. (Same goes for his rushing yards prop.)
Receiving Yards
The prop: 15.5 Receiving Yards
The odds: Over -120/Under -110
Despite seeing limited targets in his three playoff games, Akers actually went Over this mark in two of those outings. Turning one catch into a 40-yard gain against the Cardinals definitely helped.
Akers then went on to haul in three passes for 20 yards against the Buccaneers. However, he only caught one ball for 2 yards against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Games.
So what to make of this difficult prop? Well, if you like the Over, you’re essentially betting that the Bengals will play soft coverage at times, leaving Akers open to find significant receiving yardage on a screen pass.
To that point, Cincinnati allowed the fifth-most receptions (108) and sixth-most receiving yards to running backs (769) in the regular season.
Akers isn’t your typical receiving back, but it could take only one catch to top this number. The matchup seems generous.
Receptions
The prop: 2.5 Receptions
The odds: Over +140/Under -170
Before you consider this bet, double-check the expensive price to the Under. While Akers doesn’t have much of a pass-catching profile, the Under seems priced out of consideration at -170.
That leaves us looking toward the Over (at juicy +140 odds) or staying away. As mentioned earlier, Akers caught one, three, and one pass in three postseason games. Those five receptions came on just six targets.
The Rams have so many quality receivers and other check-down options that quarterback Matthew Stafford doesn’t have to dump it to his running back. Plus, there’s a chance that the versatile Michel sees some third-down work as well, which obviously would impact Akers’ opportunities to beat this prop.
Finally, if you’re wondering why the Under is overflowing with juice, wonder no more: Akers has gone Over 2.5 receptions in just four of 17 career games. That’s less than 18% of the time.
Longest Reception
The prop: 9.5 Yards
The odds: Over -120/Under -110
Akers has gone Over this number once in the Rams’ three playoff games. It was due to that 40-yard catch-and-run against the Cardinals.
Even when Akers recorded three catches against the Bucs, none went for more than 10 yards. Quite simply, it’s just not in Akers’ archetype to make big-yardage catches for his team.
That makes the Over at -120 a tough bet to stomach. Is there a chance the Bengals forget to cover Akers and he scampers for a 10-plus yard reception? Of course. But there’s just as much of a chance Akers doesn’t even catch a pass on Super Sunday.
Coming Wednesday: Top five Super Bowl props for Bengals and Rams wide receivers and tight ends.
