Only a half-game separates the second-place Blue Jays from the trailing Red Sox in the AL East. However, Toronto has dominated this divisional series in 2022. After scooping up another win on Tuesday, the Blue Jays are now 7-2 against Boston this year.
That’s surprising when you consider that these teams are pretty equal on paper. So what gives? Does Toronto have Boston’s number, or is that just an illusion?
We’ll break down the Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds and action while offering a prediction in this betting preview.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox (N. Pivetta) | +1.5 (-145) | +150 | O 8.5 (-105) |
| @ Blue Jays (A. Manoah) | -1.5 (+125) | -170 | U 8.5 (-115) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 8:30 am ET on June 29.
Pivetta’s Struggles Vs Blue Jays
Pivetta vs Blue Jays: Nick Pivetta is starting for the Red Sox on Wednesday, and his numbers against the Blue Jays are worrisome. Bo Bichette (8-19), George Springer (6-12), and Cavan Biggio (5-12) all have a liftetime average north of .417 against him. Pivetta took on the Jays twice in April, allowing seven total earned runs and 10 hits across 8.2 combined innings.
Pivetta’s strikeout rate is down this season relative to his career mark of 9.62 K/9. However, his walks (2.94 BB/9) and home run rate (0.91 HR/9) have also dropped, helping him sport a 3.25 ERA. The right-handed tosser has looked smooth while allowing just four earned runs across 22 innings over his last three starts. However, his shaky history against this powerful Toronto offense is cause for concern.
Blue Jays offense: Toronto ranks fourth in wRC+ (113), first in wOBA (.331), and seventh in runs per game. Translation: they are pretty dang good. Toronto’s lineup is healthy at the moment and fierce from top to bottom. Vladimir Guerrero Jr, George Springer, and Bo Bichette usually steal the headlines. However, Alejandro Kirk has been one of the most productive hitters in the league over the past week. His numbers over the past seven games: 11-22, 4 HR, 9 RBI. In fact, he’s a top MLB prop of the day.
Is Manoah For Real?
Manoah vs Red Sox: Alek Manoah has been one of the best pitchers in the American League. He currently has the fifth-best odds to win the AL Cy Young award. Only Shane McClanahan of Tampa Bay and Justin Verlander of Houston are ahead of him. As you can see in the Baseball Savant chart below, he ranks from great to elite in nearly every pitching category.
That being said, there is a chance Manoah falls into regression over the second half of the season. His 3.78 xFIP suggests that the current 2.05 ERA will eventually rise. Will that happen as early as Wednesday vs. Boston, or will the Toronto righty fend off the regression monster for another day?
Red Sox Offense: Manoah faced the Red Sox once this season (April 28), tossing seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and three hits allowed. However, it’s worth noting that Boston’s offense was struggling in the first month of the season. They have turned it on since then.
The Red Sox certainly have the firepower to give Manoah problems, ranking eighth in wRC+ (108), sixth in wOBA (.324), and sixth in runs per game (4.77). Rafael Devers is a legitimate AL MVP candidate who ranks sixth in wRC+ (175), fourth in wOBA (.420), and fourth in runs scored (55) in all of baseball.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Betting Action
UPDATE 12:52 pm ET – Toronto opened -149 on the moneyline, bounced up to -174, then fell back down to -170 at the time of this update. DraftKings reports 70% of moneyline tickets and 64% of the handle support the Blue Jays … The total has remained steady at 8.5 with 54% of betting tickets on the Over but 56% of the money supporting Under.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction
Both pitchers have exceeded expectations up to this point, but I believe Toronto has the edge here.
Pivetta comes into this game with plenty of momentum; however, this will be his toughest matchup in nearly a month. The Blue Jays have given him fits in the past, and there’s a decent chance that will happen again on Wednesday.
For that reason, I’m looking towards the Toronto moneyline at -170. If you don’t like laying that type of juice, you can create a same game parlay of Toronto -170 and Bo Bichette to record a hit (-208). That creates +126 odds. As mentioned earlier, Bichette is 8-19 lifetime off Pivetta, and he has recorded a hit in nine of his last 11 games.
The Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -170 | Caesars Sportsbook
