The Seattle Mariners aren’t playing Kansas City anymore. After starting 11-6 — including a 9-2 run that stretched to late April — the Mariners have lost seven of eight to fall below .500 for the season.
Seattle does get to send out reigning American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray against Tampa Bay on Thursday. And the Mariners at least can point to some solid success in recent years against the Rays.
Props.com breaks down Rays vs Mariners odds for Thursday.
Odds via WynnBet and updated as of 6 p.m. ET on May 5.
Tampa Bay Rays (15-10) vs Seattle Mariners (12-13)
First pitch/TV: 9:40 p.m. ET/MLB Network & MLB.TV
Moneyline: Rays -128/Mariners +118
Run Line: Rays -1.5 (+135)/Mariners +1.5 (-165)
Total: 6.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
Pitching matchup: LHP Shane McClanahan (1-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) vs LHP Robbie Ray (2-2, 4.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)
Season series: The Rays lead 2-1 after a three-game set in Tampa Bay on April 26-28.
Did you know: This series pits one of MLB’s most consistent winners in recent years against one of the most consistent losers. The Rays have reached the playoffs seven times in the past 14 years, including losing twice in the World Series. The Mariners have not reached the postseason since 2001, the longest drought in North American team sports.
About the Rays
Hits & Misses: As usual, the Rays are right in the mix in the AL East. After starting 5-6, Tampa Bay has won 10 of 14 to move five games above .500. Yet the Rays are still three behind the New York Yankees after New York’s recent 11-game winning streak. Tampa Bay is coming off a three-game sweep at Oakland, outscoring the A’s 19-8. RF Manuel Margot is off to a great start to 2022. The career .253 hitter is batting .307 in his seventh big-league season. Margot delivered the tiebreaking two-run single in Wednesday’s 3-0 victory over Oakland. SS Wander Franco got an 11-year, $182 million contract after playing just 70 games last season as a rookie. He’s proven to be worthy of the investment, hitting .302 with four home runs and 14 RBIs.
McClanahan vs Mariners: The left-hander is off to a solid start in his second season, though the Rays are only 2-3 when he’s taken the mound. McClanahan is looking to bounce back after allowing three runs, including two home runs, in five innings in a 9-1 loss to Minnesota on Saturday. On the bright side, he struck out 11 Twins and enters Thursday’s start with a 42-7 K/BB ratio in 27 innings. McClanahan has not allowed more than three runs in any start this year. He has faced the Mariners once in his career, surrendering one run on three hits in six innings with eight strikeouts and one walk last June in Seattle. Tampa Bay lost 6-2 in 10-innings.
Key injuries: Backup C Francisco Mejia is expected to return from the COVID list for this series, maybe as soon as Thursday. 1B Ji-Man Choi (elbow) is on the 10-day injured list, and it is unknown when he will return.
About the Mariners
Hits & Misses: At least the Mariners got on the board in Wednesday’s 7-2 loss to Houston, breaking a scoreless drought of 24.1 innings. In all, Seattle was outscored 14-2 by the Astros in the three-game sweep. Before that, the Mariners lost two of three to Miami and the final two games of a three-game series at Tampa Bay. But those defeats to the Rays go against the recent history of this rivalry. Seattle is still 21-9 in its last 30 against Tampa Bay, including 13-3 at home. The Mariners have also been much better at home overall this season (7-2) than on the road (5-11).
Ray vs Rays: The reigning American League Cy Young winner has struggled a bit this season after coming over from Toronto on a five-year, $115 million deal. He’s giving up 14 runs in 30.1 innings, but six of those came in six innings against the White Sox on April 13. Other than that, Ray has not allowed more than three runs in any outing. The Mariners are 3-2 in his starts (2-0 at home). Ray has been better at home, allowing four runs in 12 innings with nine strikeouts to two walks. Ray was 2-2 with a 2.33 ERA in six starts against Tampa Bay last season, with 51 strikeouts against only five walks.
Key injuries: RP Sergio Romo (shoulder inflammation) threw a bullpen session Tuesday. He has not played since April 11.
Notable Trends
- TB is on runs of 41-20 as a road favorite and 4-1 vs. left-handed SPs
- SEA is 11-4 in its last 15 series openers
- SEA is 1-7 in its last eight as an underdog
- Under for SEA is on runs of 5-2 overall and 8-3 at home
- Under is 4-0 in McClanahan’s last four road starts
- Over is 7-1-1 in TB’s last eight vs. left-handed SPs
- Over is 4-0 in SEA’s last four against vs. left-handed SPs
- Under is 4-1 in the last five Rays-Mariners clashes overall
- Under 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Seattle
Rays vs Mariners Odds and Action
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET: The Rays opened as -110 favorites at WynnBet, reached as high as -133 and fell as low as -118 before going back up to the current -128, with 69% of bets and 70% of money on Tampa Bay. The total opened at 7 (Under -125) and is now 6.5 (Over -125), with stark bet splits: 81% of bets on the Over but 86% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET: The Rays opened as -110 favorites early Wednesday at DraftKings and went as high as -141 before settling at -135 overnight. The line has continued to move Thursday, dipping to -125, back to -130, down to -120, back to -135 and down to the current -125, with 51% of early bets and 65% of early money on the Mariners.
The total opened at 7 (Under -125) and moved to 6.5 (Over -120) before going back to 7 (Under -125) overnight. The line has moved slightly to 7 (Under -120) on Thursday, with 71% of bets on the Over but 52% of money on the Under.
