Our top play last week, C.J. Stroud, sailed over his passing touchdown prop. Spoiler alert: I like him over 2.5 passing touchdowns again on Saturday. Last time around we ended up 4-2 overall on our PrizePicks college football props.
Things are looking up with a 25-16 record over the past seven weeks. That’s a cool 61%. Let’s zoom out a little bit and keep that momentum going. As usual, we will turn to PrizePicks for these listings.
PrizePicks is technically a fantasy sports site, although they allow you to wager on a series of prop bets within their platform. They are legal in 30 states as well, including some places that don’t allow sports betting at the moment.
You can read more details on how and where to play Prizepicks by clicking here.
Another cool thing about PrizePicks is that they have college football props listed. I have perused those lines to find the best College Football Props for Week 13 – all of which can be found on the PrizePicks app.
With that, let’s get to the best props!
QB C.J. Stroud – Ohio State: OVER 2.5 Passing TDs
Here we go again. I’m not sure why Stroud’s passing touchdown prop hasn’t risen over the past few weeks. If you are a frequent reader of this article, then you know we have been hammering this over with great success. Stroud basically cashed this prop in the first quarter against Michigan State last week.
Now the Heisman Trophy hopeful will take on Michigan, which represents a tougher test. The Wolverines rank top ten in passing defense this season. However, they haven’t faced a quarterback near the caliber of Stroud.
CJ Stroud's 1ST HALF vs #7 Michigan State 🚀@OhioStateFB pic.twitter.com/DXMhqqR74T
— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) November 20, 2021
In fact, a quick glimpse at Michigan’s schedule suggests that they haven’t been challenged through the air by a legitimate passing offense. The Wolverines gave up 291 passing yards and three scores to Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez earlier this year, and he’s not even close to the same tier as Stroud.
Stroud has thrown for at least three touchdowns in seven of 10 games this season. He has tossed four or more scores in five of his last seven. Maybe Michigan can hold him to three or four passing touchdowns, but I believe he’ll easily cash the over in this rivalry game.
QB Sean Clifford – Penn State: OVER 209.5 Passing Yards
If you take a look at Clifford’s game log, then you might be concerned with this prop selection. He has been all over the map this season, and he was limited last week due to an illness.
However, all signs point to Clifford starting without limitations on Saturday. The matchup looks excellent as well, given that Michigan State ranks dead last in passing defense. That’s 130th out of 130 teams. Ouch!
Penn State QB1 Sean Clifford & QB2 Christian Veilleux throwing in tandem. Clifford will start vs. MSU pic.twitter.com/U29EFOup9Q
— Mike Poorman (@PSUPoorman) November 24, 2021
It’s obvious that you can beat the Spartans through the air, and I’m expecting Penn State to attack that vulnerability. Clifford has tossed for 360+ yards in two of his last three as the full-time Nittany Lions signal-caller. I’m not counting last week with his appearance cut short due to that illness.
So we have an excellent matchup with a capable quarterback who is supposedly back to full health. This should be a competitive game with the Nittany Lions throwing the ball early and often. Take Clifford over this passing yardage total with confidence!
QB Jordan Travis – Florida State OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards
This should be a high-scoring rivalry game between two suspect defenses. I’m expecting Travis to rack up some stats within that, including enough rushing yards to comfortably cover this total.
Looking closer at the matchup gives me more confidence in this prop. Florida has struggled down the stretch this season. The Gators currently rank 72nd in rushing defense. Their 4.4 yards per carry allowed ranks 80th in the country.
This Jordan Travis TD run was filthy 😱
(via @ACCFootball)pic.twitter.com/sjmX1eyovb
— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) November 7, 2020
As for Travis, he hasn’t had much of a problem getting to at least 25 rushing yards. The Florida State QB has crossed that threshold in five of his last six games. That lone miss came against Clemson, who has one of the best rushing defenses in the nation.
Simply put, this prop is too low. Travis could easily scramble his way for 50-60 yards with upside closer to the century mark. Grab this prop on PrizePicks before it rises!
More PrizePicks College Football Props
Frank Harris (QB – UTSA) OVER 23.5 Rushing Yards. This is similar to Travis’ prop in the previous section. Harris isn’t shy about using his legs, topping 24 rushing yards in five of his last six. My projection has him around 40 yards, creating value for this prop.
C.J. Stroud (QB – OSU) OVER 294.5 Passing Yards. This is a nice correlation pick with Stroud’s touchdown prop. I have more confidence in him to toss more than 2.5 scores, but his yardage total is another opportunity to attack. Once again, the matchup looks tough, but this Ohio State offense is firing on all cylinders.
Sam Hartman (QB – WF) OVER 292.5 Passing Yards. Hartman has been excellent this season, hitting 293+ passing yards in six of his last seven. That includes 312 yards despite a tough matchup with Clemson last week. Similar to Stroud’s write-up, I believe Hartman can overcome a perceived difficult draw with Boston College.
