The Philadelphia Phillies took a game from the New York Mets on Saturday, but turning that into a winning streak could be an uphill climb. And that uphill climb’s name is Max Scherzer, who will be the starting pitcher for the Mets on Sunday.
The ace hasn’t lost in his first four starts for New York, after signing a three-year, $130 million contract in the offseason. And the Mets are strongly favored to keep that streak going Sunday.
Props.com breaks down Phillies vs Mets odds and betting notes for Sunday Night Baseball.
Odds via WynnBet as of 6 p.m. ET on May 1.
Philadelphia Phillies (11-11) vs New York Mets (15-7)
First pitch/TV: 7:08 p.m. ET/ESPN
Moneyline: Mets -175/Phillies +160
Runline: Mets -1.5 (+115)/Phillies +1.5 (-140)
Total: 7 (Over +105/Under -125)
Pitching matchup: RHP Zach Eflin (1-1, 3.20 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) vs RHP Max Scherzer (3-0, 1.80 ERA, 0.76 WHIP)
Season series: New York leads 3-2. The Phillies won 4-1 on Saturday to stop the Mets’ three-game winning streak in the series.
Did you know: The Mets are undefeated in Scherzer’s first four starts with the club, outscoring their opponents 24-12.
About the Phillies
Hits & Misses: Philadelphia bounced back from being no-hit by the Mets on Friday to earn a 4-1 victory Saturday. The Phillies’ scoreless stretch reached 16 innings before OF Kyle Schwarber hit a two-run homer in the seventh to give Philadelphia a 2-1 lead. RP Jeurys Familia got out of a bases-loaded jam in the eighth against his former team to help the Phillies hang on. Philadelphia has won five of six to climb back to .500 after a dismal start to the season. The 5-1 stretch includes dominating Colorado in a four-game home sweep by a combined margin of 32-9. The recent surge has lifted the Phillies to third in the NL East, four games behind the leading Mets and two games behind Miami.
Eflin vs Mets: Eflin has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in three of his four starts. He’s coming off his longest outing of the season, as he tossed six innings in Tuesday’s 10-3 home rout of the Rockies. Eflin limited the Rockies to a run, two hits and one walk while striking out three on a season-high 91 pitches. The 28-year-old right-hander has been much better in his two home starts (1-0, 0.90 ERA, 0.70 WHIP) than his two road outings (0-1, 5.59 ERA, 1.55 WHIP). Eflin is 3-4 with a 4.70 ERA in 13 career starts against the Mets. However, over his last four starts against New York (two in 2021, two in 2019), he’s allowed just six runs in 22 innings (2.46 ERA). Yet Philadelphia lost three of those four contests.
Key injuries: RPs Ryan Sherriff (shoulder) and Sam Coonrod (shoulder) were recently moved to the 60-day injured list. They have not played this season.
About the Mets
Hits & Misses: This season has been smooth sailing for the Mets so far. New York is tied with Milwaukee for the best record in the NL, and the Mets are just behind the cross-town Yankees (15-6) for the best record in the majors. The Mets have lost two games in a row only once this season, and they will try to avoid their second losing streak of the year Sunday. On Friday, Tylor Megill and four relievers combined to throw the first no-hitter of the MLB season, beating the Phillies 3-0. New York’s middle infield continues to produce at the plate. Second baseman Jeff McNeil is hitting .328/.392/.478, and SS Francisco Lindor — who signed a 10-year — $341 million deal in the offseason, is hitting .282/.367/.482 with four home runs and 14 RBIs.
Scherzer vs Phillies: Scherzer has been virtually untouchable in his last three outings, going 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA. The three-time Cy Young award winner limited the Phillies (road), Giants (home), and Cardinals (road) to two runs, eight hits and seven walks with 27 strikeouts in 19 innings. That’s impressive, especially when considering the caliber of those offenses. In his most recent trip to the mound Monday in St. Louis, Scherzer permitted just one run with three total baserunners (two hits, one walk), striking out 10 batters in the process. Although he got a no-decision, the Mets scored five ninth-inning runs to rally for a 5-2 victory. Scherzer has gone 21 innings without allowing a home run. The ace hurler picked up a 9-6 victory in Philadelphia on April 13, allowing just one run in five innings. He’s now 15-4 with a 2.47 ERA in 26 starts against the Phillies.
Key injuries: RP Sean Reid-Foley left Saturday’s game with right elbow discomfort and is awaiting an MRI to determine the extent of the injury.
Notable Trends
- PHI is in slumps of 4-12 on the road, 2-6 vs NL East rivals and 0-7 on Sunday
- PHI is 1-6 in its last seven games vs Scherzer (since June 2019)
- NYM is on runs of 5-2 at home, 13-4 vs right-handed SPs, and 7-3 on Sunday
- Under for PHI is on runs of 8-2 on the road and 9-2-1 vs the NL East
- Over is 4-1 in Scherzer’s last five starts overall
- Over is 7-2 in Eflin’s last nine starts overall
- Under is 11-2-2 in the last 15 Phillies-Mets clashes
- Under is 5-0-1 in the last six series battles at Citi Field
Phillies vs Mets Odds and Action
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET: About an hour before first pitch, New York is -175 in WynnBet’s Phillies vs Mets odds market, with Philadelphia +160 on the buyback. The Mets opened -180 Saturday afternoon, peaked at -185 late Saturday night, then went to -175 late this morning. Moneyline ticket count is quite heavy to New York, at 8/1, but moneyline cash isn’t quite so one-sided, running 2/1 on the Mets.
The total opened at 7 (Under -115), and with Scherzer on the bump for the Mets, the price is even more of a premium, at 7 (Under -125). Ticket count is 2.5/1 and money almost 6/1 on the Under.