We have a repeat of the matchup from the previous Sunday night game between the Cardinals and the Phillies. Philadelphia came away with a 4-0 win on the back of a brilliant performance by Zack Wheeler.
These teams seem to be trending in opposite directions, and they are now tied in the Wild Card race. Can the Cardinals get back on track, or will the Phillies continue their surge in this Friday matchup? We’ll break that down along with a Phillies vs. Cardinals prediction in this betting preview.
Can Wheeler Keep Rolling?
On Sunday, Wheeler pitched seven shutout innings allowing four hits while striking out five. Wheeler is having an incredible season with a 2.66 ERA, and the 2021 strikeout leader is mowing them down again with 10.1 strikeouts per nine. While he’s lost a little on his fastball, the movement has improved, which keeps that pitch effective. He is also throwing the slider more, going from 15.9% of his pitches in 2020 to 30% this season.
The Phillies will be without Bryce Harper until September. For most teams, when you lose a reigning MVP, it could destroy a lineup, but the Phillies keep moving along as they’re second in slugging (.495), fourth in wOBA (.357), and fifth in batting average (.272) since he’s been out.
In his absence, Kyle Schwarber has taken over the role of the power in the lineup. Since June 26, he’s leading the league with seven home runs, batting .306 with a 1.276 OPS and a .917 slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s offense is excellent right now, and it’ll be downright lethal when Harper returns.
Can Wainwright Get It Back?
Adam Wainwright went 5.2 innings allowing four earned and eight hits against the Phillies on Sunday. He pitched well but made two big mistakes by hanging a curveball to J.T. Realmuto and a flat cutter to Rhys Hoskins for home runs. The curveball is still one of the best in the league as his average break of 22.4 inches leads the league, and the -4 run value is tied for fourth.
It was a rough week for the Cardinals losing three of four to the Braves, including being shut out again. The offense has had peaks and valleys all season, and it’s heading in the wrong direction at the moment. Since July 1, the team is collectively 20th in wOBA (.306), OPS (.688), and has the tenth highest strikeout rate (23.2%). While they have a talented pitching staff, their win/loss records are not good due to lack of run support all year.
Once again, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are providing all the offense while everyone else in the lineup struggles to stay consistent. Even Tommy Edman has fallen off as he’s dropped from a .322 average on May 6 to .262 at the moment.
Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction
It’s hard to believe that with how well Wheeler pitched just five days ago against this Cardinals lineup, they continue to struggle with the bats, that their fortunes would change. Wheeler struggled earlier in the season, but he’s looking better with every start, and he’s getting more comfortable relying on his slider.
Wainwright should be better at home and keep them in this game as he’s done all season, but I feel the offense will let him down again.
The pick: Philadelphia Phillies moneyline +135 | PointsBet
