The Patriots and Bills are meeting for the first time this year on Thursday Night Football. The longtime beasts of the AFC East will attempt to bounce back from their loss on Thanksgiving against the 2020 and 2021 AFC East champions, winners of their Thanksgiving contest. Can the Bills go into enemy territory and earn a win? And if they do, can they cover the spread? We’ll look at both squads before offering our top Patriots vs. Bills predictions.
Patriots vs. Bills Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | +3 (-110) | +152 | O 41.5 (-110) |
| @ Bucs | -3 (-110) | -180 | U 41.5 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9:00 p.m. ET on Nov. 30. New to DraftKings? Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review to find out how to turn $5 into $150.
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 1
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA
- TV: Amazon
Patriots vs. Bills Trends
- The Bills opened as 5.5-point underdogs on Sunday (11/27), and they’ve gradually slid to only a 3.5-point favorite.
- The Patriots are 3-1-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record.
- New England is 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- The Patriots are 1-4 in their last five games after accumulating more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.
- The Bills are 12-3 against the spread in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.
- Buffalo is 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine games on field turf.
- The Bills are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Buffalo is 8-3-2 against the spread in their last 13 games following an against-the-spread loss.
“Meh”c Jones and the Patriots are Mediocre
The Patriots are 4-3 in the seven games Mac Jones has started and finished, with losses to the Dolphins, Ravens, and Vikings. Meanwhile, his wins were by three points against Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers, five points and seven points against Zach Wilson and the Jets, and 23 points against Sam Ehlinger and the Colts. So basically, the Patriots have unimpressive wins against lousy quarterbacks and losses against the quality quarterbacks they’ve faced in Jones’ starts.
According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots were 19th in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) in the seven-game sample. They averaged just 19.1 points in those contests and had a median scoring outcome of 22 points. Thus, there hasn’t been much to get excited about by New England’s offense.
New England’s defense is impressive on paper. However, a look a little deeper is less impressive. The Patriots have feasted on hot-garbage quarterbacks and stumbled against any competent signal-callers, allowing 20 points to Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, 37 to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, 33 to Justin Fields and the Bears, and 33 to Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. So, they’ve yielded 30.75 points per game in four contests against non-trash quarterbacks.
The Healthy Bills Might be Dangerous
Sadly, Dion Dawkins and Von Miller are out for this game. However, the Bills are otherwise healthy. Further, Josh Allen has practiced in full this week, suggesting the health of his elbow might be improving. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bills have the second-highest scoring offense (28.1) and are first in point differential, outscoring their opponents by 110 points.
The Bills are also sixth in total offense DVOA. And, of course, Allen has carved up the Patriots in recent meetings. The only low-scoring effort from Allen and the Bills in their past four meetings against the Patriots was the high-wind affair in Buffalo last year. Otherwise, Allen and the Bills have hung 47, 33, and 38 points on the Patriots in their previous four meetings.
Buffalo’s defense isn’t a joke, either. They’re getting reinforcements back this weekend in the front seven, with the return of Tremaine Edmonds and Gregory Rousseau. The back end should also get more help, with Tre’Davious White expected to play more this week.
Bills CB Tre'Davious White (ACL) expected to see more snaps on Thursday vs. Patriots, per Sean McDermotthttps://t.co/SnyCCxlQZM pic.twitter.com/vIHBN0hlWL
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) November 29, 2022
However, stud safety Jordan Poyer’s healthy presence in the secondary might be the key to Buffalo’s success. He’s played in seven games this year, all victories by the Bills. They’ve allowed 10, 7, 20, 20, 17, 23, and 25 points in the contests in which Poyer has suited up. They’ve won those contests by an average margin of 11.9 points, with a median margin of victory of eight points.
Patriots vs. Bills Predictions
The Bills are more well-rounded than the Patriots. In addition, they’re better on both sides of the ball. Buffalo has also handled their business against the Patriots in recent years. But, again, the wind game last year was the exception.
Since 2020, the Bills have won by 3, 29, 12, and 30 points and lost once by four points. Moreover, the Bills didn’t punt or have a turnover in their previous two matchups against the Patriots. It’s been a one-sided rivalry of late after years of the Patriots having Buffalo’s number. The Bills haven’t been perfect this year, but they’re the better club. So, I’m comfortable laying the 3.5 points on the favored Bills.
Pick: Bills -3.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook