The Panthers and Falcons had an overtime shootout in Week 8. Yet, the game’s total doesn’t suggest a repeat of the back-and-forth offensive affair in their first meeting. So what are our expectations for this game? Where should gamblers bet their money?
Panthers vs. Falcons Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | -3 (-110) | -162 | O 43.5 (-115) |
| @ Panthers | +3 (-110) | +136 | U 43.5 (-105) |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 1 a.m. ET on Nov. 9. New to FanDuel? Check out our FanDuel Sportsbook Review to find out how to redeem a $1,000 risk-free bet!
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 10
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
- TV: Amazon
Panthers vs. Falcons Trends
- The total opened at 41.5 points on Sunday (11/6) and steadily climbed to 44.5 points on Tuesday morning before dipping to its present 43.5 points.
- The over is 4-0 in Carolina’s last four home games against a team with a losing record.
- The over is 4-1 in the Panthers’ last five games after amassing fewer than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- The over is 7-2 in Carolina’s last nine games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- The over is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five games following a straight-up loss.
- The over is 4-1 in the Falcons’ last five games against the NFC South.
- The over is 11-4-1 in Atlanta’s last 16 games after accumulating less than 150 passing yards in their previous game.
Carolina’s Defense is Wretched
There isn’t a favorable way to paint Carolina’s defense. Instead, they’re dreadful by every measure. First, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Panthers have the fourth-worst scoring defense (25.3 points per game). Second, per Football Outsiders, Carolina is 28th in total defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), 23rd in rush defense DVOA, and 28th in pass defense DVOA.
Third, Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks the Panthers 19th in total defense. So, they’re lousy by every measure. In addition, in four games with Steve Wilks as the interim head coach, the Panthers have coughed up 24, 3, 37, and 42 points. This week’s opponent, the Falcons, hung 37 points on the scoreboard against the Panthers in Week 8. Atlanta had no problem moving the ball on Carolina, passing for 239 yards and rushing for 167.
Then, Carolina was smashed for 42 points in Week 9, allowing 464 yards, despite the Bengals pulling Joe Burrow early because of the lopsided score. Carolina’s coughed up more than 130 rushing yards five times this year, and they’ve been steamrolled for 408 rushing yards in the previous two games.
The Falcons Have a Low-Key Good Offense
Atlanta’s offense is good, much to the dismay of fantasy football gamers and analysts who are fuming about head coach Arthur Smith failing to force-feed Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons are 14th in yards per play (5.5), fourth in rushing yards per game (162.9), ninth in scoring offense (24.1 points per game), eighth in total offense DVOA, fourth in rush offense DVOA, and 12th in pass defense DVOA.
Atlanta has scored at least 26 points five times this year, and 26 points is their median scoring outcome. They’ve effectively bullied defenses with a run-first offense. According to numberFire, Atlanta has attempted just 146 passes in neutral game scripts this year. Meanwhile, they’ve rushed 176 times with non-quarterbacks and 41 times with Marcus Mariota in neutral game scripts.
Atlanta’s formula for offensive success did the trick against the Panthers in Week 8. The Falcons blasted the Panthers for 37 points, rushing for 167 and passing for 239 points. Since the Panthers struggle mightily with defending the run, the Falcons should have their way steamrolling them on the ground, especially since dynamic running back Cordarrelle Patterson returned from Injured Reserve (IR) last week.
Panthers vs. Falcons Predictions
I dragged Carolina’s defense and lauded Atlanta’s offense above. However, the Falcons are a steaming pile of garbage on defense. In fact, Atlanta’s defense is arguably worse than Carolina’s. The Falcons allow the second-most yards per play (6.1) and are 26th in scoring defense (25.0 points per game), 29th in total defense DVOA, 22nd in rush defense DVOA, 29th in pass defense DVOA, and rank 27th in total defense at PFF.
No, Carolina’s offense isn’t good. Nevertheless, Atlanta’s defense is unlikely to challenge them. The Panthers lit the Falcons up for 34 points in Week 8, and they’ve reached at least 21 points in their last three games. If the Panthers can match their recent production and the Falcons play to their season scoring rate, they’ll easily eclipse the game’s total of 43.5 points. Thus, I’m betting the game’s over of 43.5 total points at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pick: Over 43.5 total points | -115 at FanDuel Sportsbook
