NL Cy Young odds have gotten two noteworthy jolts this season. And unfortunately for the New York Mets, they’ve provided both those shake-ups, losing two of the best pitchers in MLB.
Just before the season started, Jacob deGrom was shelved by a shoulder issue. He’s still not back in the rotation. Now, Max Scherzer has a strained oblique, knocking him out for six to eight weeks. Bookmakers responded accordingly in odds to win the National League Cy Young Award.
Props.com checks in on the latest 2022 NL Cy Young odds and action, with insights from The SuperBook.
2022 NL Cy Young Odds
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | Milwaukee Brewers | +450 |
| Walker Buehler | Los Angeles Dodgers | +450 |
| Pablo Lopez | Miami Marlins | +900 |
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks | +900 |
| Carlos Rodon | San Francisco Giants | +1000 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | +1000 |
| Joe Musgrove | San Diego Padres | +1000 |
| Max Fried | Atlanta Braves | +1200 |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies | +1800 |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies | +2500 |
| Freddy Peralta | Milwaukee Brewers | +3000 |
| Josh Hader | Milwaukee Brewers | +3000 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins | +3000 |
| Chris Bassitt | New York Mets | +4000 |
| Julio Urias | Los Angeles Dodgers | +4000 |
| Kyle Wright | Atlanta Braves | +4000 |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants | +4000 |
| Max Scherzer | New York Mets | +4000 |
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks | +4000 |
Odds via The SuperBook and updated as of 5 p.m. ET May 20
From Favorite to Long Shot
Scherzer is 5-1 with a solid 2.54 ERA, striking out 59 while walking just 11 over his first eight starts. That had the veteran right-hander as a +500 co-favorite in The SuperBook’s NL Cy Young odds market. Joining him there: Milwaukee Brewers starter Corbin Burnes and Los Angeles Dodgers starter Walker Buehler.
But with the May 19 news of Scherzer’s oblique strain — which could shelve him until after the All-Star break — The SuperBook stretched Scherzer’s price to +4000. So the Mets righty is now the co-14th choice. However, bettors weren’t really on the Scherzer train, anyway.
“Not a ton of tickets or liability to this point,” SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. “We are a decent winner to Scherzer if he can come back in enough time to win the award for a fourth time.”
Along with sliding Scherzer down the odds board, The SuperBook initially shortened Burnes and Buehler to +400 co-faves. Two days later, on May 20, both are at +450.
Burnes is just 1-2 through eight starts, but he’s got a solid 2.26 ERA and has racked up 62 strikeouts, against just eight walks. More on Buehler below.
Ticket Takers and (Perhaps) Money Makers
Unlike Scherzer, Buehler is a popular play at The SuperBook. Like Scherzer, the right-handed Buehler is 5-1 through eight starts. The Dodgers starter has a 2.89 ERA, with 39 Ks against 12 walks.
“Buehler is No. 1 in ticket count. We are a small loser to him, and deGrom also saw some money at 100/1, even though we aren’t sure when he’ll return to the bump this year,” Degnon said. “Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins is also attracting some public money.”
Degnon noted deGrom is now out to +20,000 (200/1), and the timeline for deGrom’s return is fuzzy at best. Meanwhile, Alcantara is a modest 3-2 in eight starts for the Marlins, and his strikeouts-to-walks ratio is barely above 2/1 (42 Ks/20 walks). But he’s got a nifty 2.49 ERA.
That said, Alcantara doesn’t make the short list among those The SuperBook needs and those whom bettors are rooting for in this race.
“We are rooting against deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, and Yu Darvish,” Degnon said. “We are rooting for, most notably, Burnes or Madison Bumgarner.”
Kershaw, Buehler’s rotation mate and a three-time Cy Young winner, is the +1000 co-fifth choice, joined by the San Francisco Giants’ Carlos Rodon. Kershaw is 4-0 with a sparkling 1.80 ERA in five starts, with 32 strikeouts against just three walks.
Darvish is a +10,000 dark horse (100/1), with a 4-1 record through eight starts, but a not-as-impressive 3.91 ERA.
On the plus side of The SuperBook’s NL Cy Young futures ledger is Bumgarner. Now with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the left-hander is another dark horse at +5000. Bumgarner is just 2-2 through eight starts, with only 35.1 innings pitched, but he holds a 2.29 ERA.