Welcome to the latest edition of the NFL Wild Card Prop Bets series, which focuses on the most intriguing props for Monday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals.
The NFL Wild Card Prop Bets article will dive into some of the most popular Rams-Cardinals props while offering analysis that supports or strikes down a certain side. We’ll look at some unique prop specials offered by certain sportsbooks (the Kyler Murray promo is particularly interesting).
Odds via DraftKings and BetMGM updated as of 8 a.m. ET on January 17.
Los Angeles Rams: WR Cooper Kupp
The Prop: 106.5 Receiving Yards
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Dance with the one who brung you.
Choose whatever idiom you like, they all point in the same direction.
Kupp has absolutely smashed his receiving props this season. What else do you expect from a breakout receiver who nearly set the single-season record for receiving yards and receptions? It’s been Overs galore all season for the Rams’ playmaker. Will that carry into the playoffs?
Consider these trends that point to taking the Over on this particular Cardinals vs. Rams prop:
- Kupp has tallied more than 107 receiving yards in 11 of 17 games this season
- In his most recent meeting with the Cardinals, Kupp had 13 catches for 125 yards and a TD
- BetPrep’s algorithm projects Kupp flying over this total 59.85% of the time
Need a final stamp of approval? BetPrep’s Player Prop expert Brad Feinberg listed Kupp’s Over as one of his top plays of the week. Feinberg carries a rock-solid 87-47 record (65%) on props this year, so it would be wise to pay attention to his analysis.
Arizona Cardinals: RB James Conner
The Prop: Player to Score First Touchdown
The Odds: +800 (at BetMGM)
As of Monday morning ET, Conner was listed as questionable with a rib injury. We’ll need to double-check his status as we move closer to kickoff.
Assuming Conner plays without a “pitch count,” he presents fantastic value to log the first touchdown of the night for either team.
Conner has been a touchdown machine. He has 15 rushing scores on the season, which is tied for second-most in the NFL. Checking in at a hefty 235 pounds, it’s safe to assume Conner will continue to see goal-line touches for the Cardinals. In other words, if Arizona scores first, there’s a high probability that their bulldozer of a running back will be the one to make it happen.
Conner has scored four touchdowns in two games against the Rams this season. That bodes well for his “Anytime Touchdown” prop (+115) as well.
Arizona Cardinals: QB Kyler Murray
The Prop: 299.5 Combined Passing/Rushing Yards & Cardinals Win
The Odds: +425 (at DraftKings)
This is definitely a unique prop that is exclusive to DraftKings Sportsbook. It’s a parlay of sorts, tying Murray’s passing and rushing yardage to a Cardinals’ victory. Unlike similar promotions, there’s some logical correlation in this prop.
If Arizona pulls off the upset on the road, it likely will be because Murray had a big game. Of course, if you’re more of a conservative bettor, you can bet Murray’s passing/rushing yards prop without including a Cardinals victory.
Looking at the numbers, there’s a compelling case to taking a shot with this Cardinals vs. Rams prop, which offers a nice +425 payout. Here’s why:
- Murray amassed 307 passing/rushing yards in Arizona’s first meeting against the Rams in L.A.
- Murray compiled 443 passing/rushing yards in the rematch at home
- The Arizona QB went Over this prop number in three of his last five regular-season games
Finally, there’s some math working in favor of this bet. The Cardinals are listed at +160 on the moneyline. Murray’s passing and rushing yardage prop is priced at -115 for both the Over and Under. If you combine those in a traditional parlay, the payout comes to around +385. So the fact DraftKings is offering +425 means you’re getting compelling value.
If you like the Cardinals to win, playing this prop could provide a much more profitable alternative than just betting Arizona +160 on the moneyline. Food for thought.
Los Angeles Rams: RB Sony Michel
The Prop: 55.5 Rushing Yards
The Odds: Over -115/Under -110 (at BetMGM)
This prop is somewhat similar to the one involving Conner, in that there’s also some injury uncertainty to the Rams’ backfield.
Cam Akers missed the entire season for Los Angeles before returning in Week 18. He had only five carries for 3 yards in a home loss to San Francisco, but he’s expected to be much more involved in Monday’s game plan. The question is: How much of Michel’s workload will Akers cut into? You have to guess Akers will exceed last week’s output, but will it be to the point that he gets more touches than Michel?
Considering Michel has topped 70 rushing yards in five of his last six outings, it seems like oddsmakers believe the Rams will feed Akers quite a bit. Still, in a must-win playoff game, it would make sense for Los Angeles to keep Michel in his RB1 role while letting Akers serve as a change-of-pace and/or third-down back.
When Michel does touch the football, he’ll be looking to exploit a Cardinals defense that’s been generous to opposing rushers lately. Seattle RB Rashaad Penny gashed Arizona for 190 rushing yards last week. Colts tailback Jonathan Taylor ran for 108 yards on Christmas, while the Lions’ Craig Reynolds posted 112 yards against the Cards in Week 15. And Michel himself posted 79 yards on 20 carries last month against Arizona.
