Football drives the American sports wagering bus, and thankfully, there are a lot of seating options, especially in NFL betting. A market that’s popular each year is the Over/Under on NFL regular-season win totals.
While intriguing, that market gives customers only one option on each team.
That’s no longer the case if you have access to WynnBet, which recently posted props that put a whole new spin on this popular betting option. NFL exact regular-season win totals are now available on each of the 32 teams—no 8.5s or 7.5s or 10.5s, but rather the ability to take one number from among more than a dozen choices on each team.
Props.com dives into WynnBet’s NFL exact win totals.
Sharp Bets On NFL Exact Regular-Season Win Totals
Industry veteran Alan Berg, now senior trading manager for WynnBet, said the impetus for launching NFL exact win totals came from his experience at the front end of the sportsbook.
“This is a WynnBet original, which is hard to do nowadays with plenty of bookmakers out there making unique stuff,” Berg told Props.com. “The idea goes back to my days as a ticket writer, having tourists visit Las Vegas and ask to bet on particular teams to win ‘X’ number of games. It seemed like something that would be fun to offer, so we decided to give it a shot.”
Berg said action has been “decent” thus far, and he expects it to pick up significantly as Week 1 approaches. Among the early activity, WynnBet has seen some professional money come in, which Berg welcomes.
“One of our sharpest NFL guys jumped in right away and took a few swings at some long shots,” Berg said. And the bettor leaned toward a broader option within this market, wagering on a range for the win total rather than a specific number. The customer bet the Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 0-3 wins and the Buffalo Bills 0-4 wins.
“He approached it from a very smart angle, one that will help us when we put these odds up next year,” Berg said. “That’s the great thing about hanging new betting options: The smart players can make you better at building and shaping odds by letting you know these lines might be high. Thankfully, we haven’t had a ton of sharp plays, so it must mean we did OK with pricing on the majority of the teams.”
The Chargers’ 0-3 wins option opened +30,000 (300/1) and is now +3,500 (35/1), while the Bills’ 0-4 wins opened +20,000 and is now +3,000.
NFL Exact Win Totals Betting Action
When you’ve got Tom Brady under center and you’re the defending Super Bowl champion, that’s going to draw attention across multiple NFL betting markets. And exact regular-season win totals is no exception, with some customers banking on an extraordinary regular season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
“So far, most tickets have been on the Bucs, with most bettors taking a swing that they will go 16-1 or 17-0, but there are a few stragglers elsewhere,” Berg said, noting the 16-win price has already moved from +7,500 (75/1) to +1,200, and the perfect regular season from +20,000 to +3,000. “Next up is the Lions, believe it or not. We’ve had some players actually backing Detroit to have an amazing year. From 10 wins right up through our one-selection number of 14-17 wins, those have all been popular. I guess new Lions coach Dan Campbell is not only firing up players, but bettors, as well.”
Detroit winning exactly 10 games opened at +10,000 (100/1) and is now +2,500 (40/1), and the Lions nabbing 14-17 wins tightened from +50,000 (500/1) to +8,000 (80/1). While those early Lions bets have some solid payout potential, some bettors backed much longer shots on some very unlikely-to-happen props, feeling there was value to be had. And WynnBet had to respond with significant odds movement.
“When you are offering a fair price on some long shots, it doesn’t take long for that liability number to get crazy. So we made some aggressive moves on a few them. For example: the Chiefs to win 0-4 games, from 1,500/1 to 60/1; the Rams to win 0-2 games, from 1,500/1 to 75/1; and the Texans to win 16-17 games, from 1,000/1 to 75/1, and they’re now 100/1.”
Teams With A Lack Of Action
Berg said the Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins weren’t piquing much interest with bettors. Further, some regional bias he thought would be on display in some of WynnBet’s markets—which include Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Virginia and Tennessee—hasn’t shown up.
“Honestly, I figured we would see a few more fans of local teams jumping in than we have thus far,” Berg said. “For example, in Tennessee, I thought we’d have some diehard believers who would show some faith in the Titans. Ten dollars on 14 wins (+2,000), 15 wins (+4,000) and 16-17 wins (+7,500) is a $200, $400 or $750 payout. That seems like a fun way to root your team on to their best season ever.”
