Sometimes the best approach to NFL props can be riding the hot hand. There’s no hotter hand in the NFL than the Indianapolis Colts’ Jonathan Taylor.
The running back has vaulted himself into the MVP conversation with a monster two months of production. Taylor’s in a great spot to keep it rolling on Christmas Day, so here are three reasons to bet Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards this weekend.
Taylor Is Currently On Another Level
The prop: Jonathan Taylor over 105.5 rushing yards on DraftKings
There isn’t a running back playing as well as Jonathan Taylor right now, and his surge is a big reason the Colts have climbed up the AFC playoff race, squarely in the mix.
Taylor has 100+ yards in five of his last six games and seven of his previous nine. He’s seeing elite volume that can be trusted, seeing close to 30 carries(!) in three of his past four games.
This man is truly on another level of production and consistency, and it’s those two traits I value above all else when planning an NFL prop bet.
"I was looking on the sideline to see if they wanted me to go down."
Jonathan Taylor. 🐐 pic.twitter.com/VClRz6VAwb
— Indy SportsOne (@IndySportsOne) December 21, 2021
Taylor put the last game on ice with the above massive run, and he’s posed to keep it rolling in Week 16.
The Cardinals Have A Defensive Weakness
Arizona is slipping, with their season-low loss to the Detroit Lions. This wasn’t a fluky loss either; they were handled easily for all four quarters. Rookie running back Craig Reynolds ran 26 times for 112 yards.
The Cardinals currently rank 27th in opponent’s yards per rush attempt, with running backs averaging 4.6 yards per carry against this defense.
These statistics are my go-to for understanding the level a defense is playing at. The higher the number, the more chunk plays they allow.
This suits Taylor well, considering he averages 5.7 yards per rush and has 11 rushes of 20+ yards.
It will just take a few big gains, plus his usual volume, for Taylor to reach his prop over.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL props? Check out our complete NFL Props Betting Guide to get up to speed!
BetPrep Trends Full Of Positivity
As always, a prop bet isn’t finalized without meandering over to BetPrep to study historical trends.
Luckily for us, Taylor’s page is full of them. A sampling:
- Ran for 104+ yards in seven of his last nine (77.78%) games when he ran for at least 50 yards last game. (avg. 132.3 per gm)
- Ran for 104+ yards in seven of his last nine (77.78%) games when he ran for at least one rush TD. (avg. 132.3 per gm)
- Ran for 104+ yards in 7 of his last 9 (77.78%) games when he averaged at least 3.5 rush yards per attempt previous game. (avg. 132.3 per gm)
- Ran for 104+ yards in 7 of his last 9 (77.78%) games when he is averaging at least ten rush attempts per game on the season. (avg. 132.3 per gm)
These are only a few of the trends over on BetPrep. This might be the greenest I’ve ever seen on a player’s page, which means full steam ahead for me.
I’ll be betting Taylor’s over confidently and enjoying the Christmas gift on Saturday night.
