One of the more disappointing players to start the season is running back Alvin Kamara.
The Saints’ top back has rushed for only 88 yards in two games with last week being particularly bad. In the 26-7 loss to Carolina, Kamara rushed eight times for 5 yards, an astounding 0.6 yards per carry.
Still, this is one of the NFL’s best running backs, and his line isn’t likely to get any lower than it is this week, making it a terrific opportunity to consider.
Trends And Recent Performance
BetPrep doesn’t have too many positive or negative trends in relation to this line, but a few basic trends highlight Kamara’s likelihood of hitting this line.
For starters, he’s run for 65+ yards in four of his last five games, good for a rate of 80%. After the last eight New Orleans losses, Kamara has rushed for 65+ in six of them (75%).
This line is weighted down by Kamara’s 5 yards last week. The four games before that? 83, 85, 99, and 155.
Trust the consistency and bet Kamara to rush for over 64.5 rushing yards.
Opponent And Game Flow
The Saints are facing the Patriots on Sunday, an ideal matchup for Kamara and the Saints to get right after last week’s embarrassing defeat.
New England was one of the worst rush defenses last season and has continued to display below-average efficiency on the side of the ball.
The Pats allowed the New York Jets running backs to average 4.8 yards per carry last week and 133 total yards.
That game was a blowout in the Patriots’ favor, and the Jets still put that together. This game against the Saints should be much closer, and Kamara is the workhorse back on this offense.
Kamara averaged 5.0 yards per carry last season, so he needs just 13 carries to hit his projected total.
Bet Kamara on Sunday; he should reach this total easily.
