One of the biggest disparities between units in Week 10 favors the Tampa Bay passing attack against the Washington secondary.
This game highlights two teams on wildly different spectrums. Tom Brady and his pass-catchers are one of the most lethal in the league, while Washington’s pass defense has been statistically one of the worst in the NFL.
There’s plenty to like in this Bucs game on Sunday, but don’t just take my word for it. Let’s dig into some numbers.
Washington’s Defensive Struggles
No team has allowed more passing yards per game than Washington, currently averaging 298.88 a contest.
All but one quarterback have hit their passing yards over against this defense, showcasing just how vulnerable this unit has been in 2021.
Washington ranks 26th in the opponent’s yards per pass attempt, at 7.6. I typically favor these types of statistics above all else. Yards can be misleading with game flow, but no matter how many attempts they’re seeing, they still struggle to slow down passing success.
Washington’s pass defense grades out as 31st on Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranks, a look into the efficiency of each unit.
No matter how you slice it, this defense is terrible. Washington also allows the third-most yards per game to wide receivers and ranks 24th against tight ends receiving.
Tampa Bay has its pockets loaded with weapons that can take advantage of this matchup.
Buccaneers To Consider For Props In Week 10
You have to start with Brady. When a passer has advantages not just for himself but both sets of his pass-catchers, the simplest thing to do is sometimes just to bet the quarterback’s passing yards prop.
Brady is averaging 331.25 passing yards per game, a mammoth number, and it will be exciting to see where his line opens.
Halfway through the season, and the NFL MVP favorite: Tom Brady 📈
2,650 Pass Yds
25 Pass TDs
5 Ints
67.3% CMP%
+350(via Caesars Sportsbook) pic.twitter.com/SVkiSUUcrx
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 8, 2021
It seems that Antonio Brown may miss another game, and for the sake of this betting spot, that only benefits us.
One challenge that has typically faced me when betting on Tampa Bay is the multitude of options in this offense. With Brown out, it simplifies things a bit.
The clear top options to target are both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin leads the team in targets with 69, followed closely by Evans’s 63.
Godwin has gone for 140 and 111 yards in his last two games, scoring a touchdown in both. Evans is seeing fewer targets of late, having not gone over 100 receiving yards since Week 5.
Godwin has the more recent success, but Evans may have the lower line. There’s every reason to believe Evans can produce a big game sooner before later in an equal-opportunity offense.
Fireworks are surely coming courtesy of this Buccaneers offense in Week 10, and now it’s all about picking the right players.