It’s always fun to root for big-time quarterback play when it comes to NFL props. But there are three quarterbacks making starts for new teams that are safer bets to go under the line in passing yards. So while everyone else cheers for big days on offense, there is money to be made by betting against it.
Teddy Bridgewater – Under 198.5 Passing Yards
No quarterback likes to be labeled a game manager, but Bridgewater’s propensity to protect the football instead of taking chances downfield is one of the reasons he won the job in Denver. So even without looking at the external factors, we know Bridgewater’s numbers will be low.
Further suppressing his passing yard numbers on Sunday is the Broncos running back tandem of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, a Broncos defense that will shorten the field, a Giants offense that may still be missing Saquon Barkley, leading to conservative play-calling for Denver later in the game, and a very good secondary in New York.
It’s a perfect storm of yardage suppression.
Andy Dalton – Under 212.5 Passing Yards
Even if we don’t see any of Justin Fields on Sunday, Andy Dalton’s passing yards will be average at best. The Bears’ offense has not looked good in the preseason, and it’s looked absolutely awful with Dalton under center. Three-and-outs were the norm. And while Dalton’s 164 passing yards look alright, 73 of them came on a play that traveled 20 yards in the air.
There is no reason to have faith in the Bears’ offense, and every reason to believe that Aaron Donald and the Rams will have a big day against Dalton. Last season when the Rams met the Bears they got to Nick Foles for four sacks. With Dalton back in the pocket, it might be even more.
And there is of course always the chance that we could see Fields.
Jameis Winston – Under 242.5 Passing Yards
We are almost guaranteed to see Taysom Hill take a few of the passing attempts away from Jameis Winston.
Even without Hill in the picture, Winston’s numbers won’t be anywhere close to what we saw from him the last time he was a starter. With the Buccaneers, he had one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. With Michael Thomas on the PUP list, the Saints will start Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway.
The game moving out of the Superdome and onto the neutral field in Jacksonville is also worth considering.
