NFL divisional playoff odds are of course being affected by injury news. But there are also key players getting healthy, which most certainly can impact teams’ fortunes.
The best example of the latter: Tennessee Titans star running back Derrick Henry, out since Oct. 31, is set to return for Saturday’s clash with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Props.com’s NFL Divisional Playoff Odds and Ends serves as a one-stop-shop for injury details, weather conditions, and Pros vs. Joes action. Check back throughout the week for injury updates, significant weather impacts, and notable contrasts between NFL divisional playoff sharp bets and public money.
NFL Divisional Playoff Injuries
Tennessee Titans: Derrick Henry suffered a foot injury in Tennessee’s Week 8 overtime win at Indianapolis. He subsequently had surgery that shelved him for the final eight games of the regular season. But Henry has practiced lately and on Friday was activated off injured reserve, and he’s set to play Saturday against Cincinnati.
Tennessee opened -2.5 at The SuperBook and quickly advanced to -3.5, then got to -4 Tuesday night. The latter line move was due in part to expectations that Henry would be activated Friday. On Wednesday afternoon, the number returned to -3.5 and was still there Friday afternoon. However, on Saturday morning, the spread returned to -4. The total rose from 47 to 47.5 Tuesday afternoon and held there until Saturday morning, when it jumped to 48.
Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati is healthy at all the skill positions, but had a key defensive loss on Super Wild Card Weekend. Tackle Larry Ogunjobi suffered a season-ending foot injury. The SuperBook moved the Bengals from +2.5 to +3.5 in short order Sunday night, reached +4 Tuesday night, and stood at +3.5 Wednesday through Friday. Come Saturday morning, though, The SuperBook had moved back to +4. The total has been on an upswing all week, going from 47 to 47.5 to 48 as of early Saturday.
San Francisco 49ers: Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has continued to play through a thumb injury, and he now has a shoulder issue, as well. But on Thursday, Garoppolo had no injury designation, so he’s good to go Saturday night at Green Bay. Running back Elijah Mitchell (knee) was also questionable earlier in the week but is now off the injury report.
San Francisco opened as a 5.5-point underdog at The SuperBook and moved to +6 Tuesday morning. The Garoppolo/Mitchell updates helped take the Niners to +5 for a short stretch Thursday, before the line returned to the +5.5 opener. The total dipped from 47.5 to 47 Wednesday afternoon. As of midday Saturday ET, the spread was still +5.5 but the total had returned to 47.5.
Green Bay Packers: Wideout Marquez Valdes-Scantling (back) is doubtful for Saturday’s home game against San Francisco. Green Bay is otherwise quite healthy and moved from -5.5 to -6 Tuesday at The SuperBook. The line briefly dipped to -5 Thursday, then returned to -5.5, where it remained as of Saturday morning. The total inched down from 47.5 to 47, but is now back to 47.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Running back Leonard Fournette, who has missed four straight games with a hamstring injury, remains on injured reserve and is questionable Sunday at the Rams. However, the former first-round pick participated in practice on Thursday and Friday and is trending toward playing. On the downside for Tampa, Fournette’s primary backup, Ronald Jones (ankle), has missed the past two games and is out this week, too. Wideout Cyril Grayson (hamstring), out last week, is questionable.
Potentially more concerning is the Bucs’ banged-up offensive line. Center Ryan Jensen and right tackle Tristan Wirfs suffered ankle sprains in the team’s Super Wild Card rout of Philadelphia. Josh Wells came on in relief of Wirfs and injured a quad. All three linemen were questionable midweek, and Jensen and Wirfs remained questionable Friday.
All that noted, Tampa Bay opened -2.5 at The SuperBook and quickly moved to -3, and Friday, the Bucs were -3 (even). The total dipped from 48.5 to 47.5 Thursday. As of Saturday morning ET, the side and total were unchanged at Bucs -3 (even)/47.5.
NFL Divisional Playoff Weather
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans: A cold front that hit Nashville on Thursday morning is projected to linger into Saturday. The temperature at kickoff (4:30 p.m. ET) is expected to be in the mid-30s and drop from there. However, neither precipitation nor wind (less than 5 mph) will be an issue. The total opened at 47 at The SuperBook, got to 47.5 Tuesday and jumped to 48 several hours before kickoff Saturday.
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers: The high Saturday in Green Bay is 23 degrees, but keep in mind, kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET/7:15 p.m. CT. So game-time temperatures are expected to be around 10 degrees. At least the winds are predicted to be light, at less than 10 mph. The total dipped from 47.5 to 47 Wednesday afternoon at The SuperBook and remained there until returning to 47.5 Saturday.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: It will be 60 degrees at kickoff in Tampa, Florida, then dip into the high 50s. Although stronger breezes (10-15 mph) were projected early in the week, the forecast now calls for wind of less than 10 mph throughout the contest. The total opened at 48.5, stuck there all week at The SuperBook, then dipped straight to 47.5 Friday and held there as of Saturday morning.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: For this time of year, conditions shouldn’t be too bad in Kansas City. The mercury is expected to be barely above the freezing mark at kickoff. Clear skies and light winds (less than 10 mph) are projected. On Thursday, the total finally got off the 54.5 opener at The SuperBook, dipping to 54 and then 53.5 for a few hours. Late Thursday afternoon, the total inched up to 54 and remained there at midday Saturday.
NFL Divisional Playoff Pros Vs Joes
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: The public is going to ride with the Chiefs, as it has the past couple years. But this line dropped to Kansas City -1.5 by Wednesday morning at WynnBet after opening at -2.5 and dipping to -2 Tuesday. The line has since been stable at Chiefs -1.5, save for about 20 minutes Thursday evening when it rose to -2.
“The Chiefs are certainly the most popular side we have this late in the week. Considering we took a stance by going to -1.5 when the market was at -2, that seemed to entice some action [on K.C.],” WynnBet senior trader Motoi Pearson said. “Regardless, even with a few respected bets at [Bills] +2.5 and +2, it seems like the public is content with betting the Chiefs in any situation.”
Kansas City is taking a relatively modest 56 percent of spread tickets at WynnBet, but that’s translating to 72% of spread money.
