The gambling gods have sent a message through the first eight weeks of the 2021 NFL season, and it’s come through loud and clear — unless, of course, you have AT&T as your service provider, in which case there’s a good chance you don’t know what the hell is going on.
So allow us to kick off Week 9 of the NFL Betting Trends Report by relaying that message in a way that your just-learned-how-to-text grandparents would appreciate:
STOP BETTING ON THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS!
STOP BETTING AGAINST THE DALLAS COWBOYS!
We could stop there — if there weren’t a bunch of other interesting NFL betting trends to share. But there are. And so … we share.
All statistics based off closing numbers per VegasInsider.com.
Who Saw This Coming?
13-2. That would be your record if you bet against the two-time defending AFC champion Chiefs every week this season and bet on the Mike McCarthy-coached Cowboys every week.
On Sunday night, Dallas returned from its Week 7 bye and handed the offense over to backup quarterback Cooper Rush, who orchestrated a 20-16 come-from-behind victory at Minnesota. The Cowboys, who went off as a 4.5-point road underdog after Dak Prescott (calf) was ruled out, remain the NFL’s only unbeaten team against the spread at 7-0.
Some 24 hours later, Kansas City took the field as a 10.5-point home favorite against the hapless New York Giants, never led by more than a touchdown, and needed to rally for a 20-17 victory. With that, the Chiefs moved to 2-6 ATS on the season and 3-15-1 ATS in their last 19 regular-season and playoff games.
The Cowboys and Giants capped a weekend in which underdogs formed a ticket-cashing conga line to the betting window. Following three straight weeks of favorites delivering for NFL bettors, underdogs bit hard in Week 8, going 10-4-1 ATS with eight outright upsets.
Fittingly, the Packers (+6.5) got things started Thursday night with a 24-21 upset of previously undefeated Arizona. We say fittingly because Green Bay has now covered (and won) seven consecutive games. At 7-1 ATS, the Packers slot right behind Dallas in the moneymaking standings.
This week, Green Bay visits Kansas City in what was going to be the most intriguing matchup of the season from a betting perspective … until an unvaccinated Aaron Rodgers ruined it.
Packers Catching Big Points in K.C.
If you ever wondered about Rodgers’ point-spread value, you got your answer Wednesday morning. After it was revealed that the Packers QB tested positive for COVID-19 and is out of Sunday’s game in Kansas City, oddsmakers moved the line from pick ’em to Chiefs -7.5.
Digest that for a moment: Kansas City has a .500 record, is in a 3-15-1 ATS funk (including 1-10 ATS at home), leads the NFL in turnovers, and has one of the league’s worst defenses. Yet the Chiefs are laying more than a touchdown … against an opponent that’s on a 7-0 SU and ATS run (including 4-0 SU/ATS on the road).
Regardless of Sunday’s outcome in K.C., at least the Chiefs know they won’t occupy the basement of the 2021 point-spread standings next week. Because that position belongs to the Washington Football Team, which is 1-7 ATS and on bye this week.
Other intriguing Week 9 matchups from a point-spread viewpoint:
— The Dolphins (seven straight losses, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five) are laying 6.5 points at home against Houston (also seven straight losses, 1-3 ATS on the road).
— The Cowboys are laying their biggest number of the season (9.5 points) at home against the Broncos, whose only spread cover in their past five games came last week at home … against Washington.
— The Cardinals (6-2 ATS) are between pick ’em and -1 at San Francisco (2-5 ATS). Arizona is 4-0 SU and ATS on the road; the Niners are 0-3 ATS at home.
— The Titans — who are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four overall, 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog this season, and have scored at least 24 points in seven straight games — are catching 7.5 points at the L.A. Rams, who have cashed in half of their eight contests.
(When one team loses the best running back of his generation and the other shores up an already stout defensive line by trading for a perennial Pro Bowler, you get a point spread that at first glance appears out of whack.)
Prime Time Role Reversal
We had a pretty good idea after eight of the first nine prime-time games this season soared Over the total that regression was coming. We had no such idea that the regression would be a near-complete reversal: Going back to Week 4, the Under is 11-4 in prime-time games.
As one-sided as that stat is, it’s nothing compared with this one: The last six Thursday night games have stayed low.
This week’s Thursday nighter (Jets at Colts) features a consensus total of 46.5. It also features a point spread of Indianapolis -10.5. We bring that up for several reasons: The Jets last week became the first double-digit underdog to win outright this season, knocking off the Bengals as an 11-point home pup. That upset aside, double-digit favorites remain 14-1 SU and 9-5-1 ATS.
Throw in the fact that New York has yet to cash a ticket in four road games — and has yet to cash a ticket in consecutive games this season — and the Colts seem like a moneymaking layup Thursday night. Except for this: While favorites are 16-8 SU in prime-time games, they’re just 7-17 ATS — including 3-12 ATS since Week 4.
OK, we get it. Lay off the side in this one and stick with that Thursday night Under trend. Eh, maybe not. The last four Jets games have gone Over the total, as have four of Indy’s last five.
Over Here, Under There
Rather than Jets-Colts, the safest total bet in Week 9 might be out in Los Angeles, where the Rams and Titans are projected to be involved in a shootout (consensus total of 53.5). Los Angeles (5-2-1) and Tennessee (5-2) join Dallas (5-2) as the NFL’s top Over teams this season.
Given that the Titans have hurdled the total in all four of their road games, it’s no surprise that Rams-Titans is the highest total of the week. It’s also no surprise that Bears-Steelers on Monday night is the lowest total of the week (40), as Chicago (2-6) and Pittsburgh (1-5-1) are among the top Under squads in 2021.
Ranking just ahead of the Steelers in the Under market are the Seahawks (1-6-1), while the Broncos, Packers, and Panthers are tied with Chicago at 2-6 to the Under.
Green Bay has actually stayed low in five straight games — a streak that figured to be in jeopardy with Rodgers facing a leaky Chiefs defense. But now? Not so much.
