This article is designed to help you make more informed NFL betting decisions, especially when it comes to player props.
To give you an added edge, we will utilize projections and analysis from Betprep – a free tool designed and used by sports betting sharps.
Of course, we’ll combine these projections with a dose of human analysis to provide context. At the very least, this will serve as a nice screening tool for us to start analyzing player props.
Using some of these Betprep functions, we’ll take a look at the best NFL player props for the Jaguars-Bengals Thursday Night Football matchup of Week 4.
BetPrep Player Prop Projections
| Player | Line | Lean | BetPrep Projection |
| Joe Burrow | 259.5 Pass Yd | UNDER | 226.67 Pass Yd |
| Trevor Lawrence | 244.5 Pass Yd | UNDER | 221.35 Pass Yd |
| Joe Mixon | 88.5 Rush Yd | OVER | 95.23 Rush Yd |
| D.J. Chark | 58.5 Rec Yd | UNDER | 51.68 Rec Yd |
| Tyler Boyd | 61.5 Rec Yd | UNDER | 54.81 Rec Yd |
Lines and projections via Betprep as of 4:30 ET on Sept. 29
QB Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Over/Under 259.5 Passing Yards
BetPrep Projection: 226.67
BetPrep Lean: UNDER
— Burrow has thrown for 260+ yards in just one of his last six games.
— The Cincinnati QB had an efficient game in the opener vs. Minnesota. Even with overtime providing a boost, he only threw for 261 yards in that contest.
— The Bengals are favored by 7.5 points, which means game flow could take the ball out of Burrow’s hands.
Bottom Line: Due to the negative expected value on BetPrep (-13.69%) for over 259.5 passing yards, this prop bet seems like under or nothing.
QB Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Over/Under 244.5 Passing Yards
BetPrep Projection: 226.67
BetPrep Lean: UNDER
— Lawrence has beaten this 244.5 passing yard line in one of three games this season.
— The Jaguars’ QB is averaging 223 yards per game so far, albeit it’s a small sample size. That’s right on top of his BetPrep projection of 226.67 yards.
— Game flow says the Jaguars will be passing early and often. There’s an outside chance Lawrence sails over this total in garbage time.
Bottom Line: This one screams “stay away”, especially when taking into account that last bullet point. For reference, BetPrep has a +24.37% expected value to the under. It’s a slight lean that way, but my gut tells me to pass (no pun intended) on this one.
RB Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Over/Under 88.5 Rushing Yards
BetPrep Projection: 95.23
BetPrep Lean: OVER
— In the last two games where Cincinnati was favored, Mixon has a 100.5 rushing yard average.
— Mixon has cleared 89 rushing yards in four of his last five home games.
— Mixon has topped the 89 rushing yard threshold in four of the last five games where Cincinnati was favored.
— BetPrep has the expected value on the OVER at +7.60%.
Bottom Line: Looking at the first three games of the season, Jacksonville hasn’t put up much resistance on the ground. Mixon should see plenty of volume due to game flow, which makes over 88.5 rushing yards an intriguing bet.
WR D.J. Chark – Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Over/Under 58.5 Receiving Yards
BetPrep Projection: 51.68
BetPrep Lean: UNDER
— Chark has tallied 59 or more receiving yards in just six of his last 20 games overall. That’s a measly 30% success rate.
— Chark went over this mark in the first game of the season, falling under the last two weeks. Chark was boosted by a 41-yard touchdown grab against Houston but hasn’t made much of a splash outside of that one catch.
— Chark’s efficiency has been troubling, catching just seven passes on 22 targets this season. His looks have dipped as well with only 10 total targets in the past two games.
Bottom Line: It’s under or nothing here. According to BetPrep, under 58.5 receiving yards has an expected value of +26.76%.
WR Tyler Boyd – Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Over/Under 61.5 Receiving Yards
BetPrep Projection: 54.81
BetPrep Lean: UNDER
— Boyd has recorded 62 or more receiving yards in just one of his last six games overall.
— There are two things that give me pause for the under. First, Tee Higgins is out for this game. His absence could open up more targets for Boyd. Second, Jacksonville’s defense is no stranger to giving up chunk passing plays.
Bottom Line: This is another instance where it’s under or nothing. The reasons are similar to the rationale listed with Burrow. BetPrep has the over at -15.65% expected value with the under at +1.68%.
