Months ago, when championship numbers first went up on the NCAA Women’s Final Four odds board, South Carolina was a clear-cut +180 favorite.
Fast-forward several months: With just four teams remaining in the NCAA Women’s Tournament, South Carolina is an even stronger presence, a minus-money chalk to cut down the nets. The Gamecocks face fellow No. 1 seed Louisville in Friday’s first semifinal, followed by No. 2 seed Connecticut vs. No. 1 seed Stanford. The title game is Sunday in Minneapolis.
Props.com takes a look at women’s college basketball championship odds, with insights from BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott.
NCAA Women’s Final Four Odds
| Team | Title Odds |
| South Carolina | -105 |
| Connecticut | +300 |
| Stanford | +300 |
| Louisville | +800 |
Odds via BetMGM and updated as of 8 p.m. ET on March 29.
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South Carolina is 33-2 SU this season, building two big winning streaks around its lone regular-season setback. The Gamecocks opened the season 12-0 before falling at Missouri 70-69 in overtime on Dec. 30. Dawn Staley’s squad responded with a 17-game winning streak that ended in the SEC tournament final, where South Carolina fell to Kentucky 64-62.
The Gamecocks have since rebounded with four NCAA Women’s Tournament victories, including Sunday’s 80-50 wipeout of No. 10 seed Creighton in the Greensboro Region final. Given that the team’s only two defeats were by a combined three points, it’s no surprise South Carolina has been a betting favorite all year long. The Gamecocks were at -130 Tuesday morning, and on Tuesday night, backers were getting a little more bang for their buck at -105.
Even at such short prices throughout the season, those who have been dabbling in the women’s college basketball betting market have consistently fired on the Gamecocks.
“They have clearly been the best-supported team all year, and we will be [rooting] against the Gamecocks from here on in,” Scott said.
South Carolina is No. 1 in ticket count and money in BetMGM’s women’s college basketball futures market. The Gamecocks have taken 19% of all championship futures bets, 1.5 times more than fellow Final Four-entrant UConn. More impressive, that ticket count is translating into 40% of all money wagered over the past several months, more than twice the amount that’s on the Huskies.
Worth noting: While it hasn’t faced Louisville this season, South Carolina already has victories against the other two Final Four participants. The Gamecocks easily handled UConn 73-57 in a Nov. 22 neutral-site contest. A month later (Dec. 21), they edged visiting Stanford 65-61.
Best For The Book
UConn (29-5 SU) opened the season as the +400 second choice to win the national title and is now the co-No. 2 +300 choice with Stanford in the NCAA Women’s Final Four odds market. The Huskies, a perennial championship contender in its 14th consecutive women’s Final Four, don’t represent BetMGM’s best outcome. But they’re certainly better for the book than South Carolina.
“UConn is only a tiny winner,” Scott said.
BetMGM would like to see Louisville (29-4 SU) not only beat South Carolina in Friday’s semis, but then take out whomever awaits in Sunday’s final. The Cardinals opened at +1,400 and are now the longest shot among the remaining schools, at +800. Even at much more attractive prices these past few months, Louisville has taken significantly less tickets and money than its Final Four peers.
As such, Scott said Louisville cutting down the nets is BetMGM’s best outcome, followed by a Stanford championship. Stanford (32-3 SU) was the +450 third choice preseason and sat as the +400 third choice Tuesday morning before moving to +300 Tuesday evening.
“Those two are decent winners for us,” he said.
