Matt LaMarca

NBA Betting Dime: Klay Thompson Returns

Klay Thompson #11 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after scoring on a three-point shot against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the second quarter at Chase Center on January 09, 2022 in San Francisco, California.
Image Credit: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Welcome to the NBA Betting Dime. If you missed the debut edition, it’s a weekly basketball column that combines some of the game’s best aspects. You can expect to find some analytical deep dives, social media clips, gambling information, and maybe some dumb pop culture references sprinkled in.

This week, we’re going to take a look at the surging 76ers, the passing mastery of Nikola Jokic, and the continued dominance of LeBron James.

However, let’s start by diving into everything that happened with the return of Klay Thompson:

1. The Return of Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson #11 of the Golden State Warriors walks onto the court clapping to warm up prior to the start of his game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Chase Center on January 09, 2022 in San Francisco, California.
Image Credit: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

It had been more than two years since Thompson suited up in an NBA basketball game, but that all changed on Sunday night. Thompson returned to the court for the Warriors, and he was undoubtedly a bit rusty. He shot just 7-18 from the field over just under 20 minutes, and the Warriors were actually outscored by two points with Thompson on the court. Still, he drilled three 3-pointers, and he did just enough to remind everyone of how good he was prior to a series of devastating injuries.

The Warriors were already arguably the best team in the league, and the return of Thompson might just push them over the top. Their 30-9 record is tied with the Suns for the top mark in the league, and their +8.9 Net Rating is also the best mark in the league. They’ve been absolutely dominant on defense – and adding Klay should only help in that department – but the one area that they’ve surprisingly struggled is on offense. They’re certainly not bad on that side of the ball, ranking 11th in Offensive Rating, but they have plenty of room for improvement moving forward.

The Warriors shot profile remains excellent in the age of analytics. They forgo mid-range two-pointers in exchange for 3-pointers. 42.7% of their shots come from behind the arc – the second-highest mark in the league – while they attempt the second-lowest frequency of midrange shots.

However, their efficiency on those shots leaves a bit to be desired. They’re just 10th in 3-point field goal accuracy, and they’re a dreadful 29th in corner 3-point percentage.

Adding a sniper-like Thompson into the equation has the potential to be a game-changer. He’s a career 41.9% 3-point shooter, and he’s shot at least 40.0% from 3-point range in each season as a professional.

If you’re still looking to get down on the Warriors to win the title, your best odds are +550 on Caesars Sportsbook. That still puts them well behind the Nets mark of +260, and I would much rather hold a Warriors’ ticket than a Nets’ ticket at those prices.

2. Dunk of the Week

There were some strong dunk candidates this week, but there was really no contest here. It has to be Klay throwing one down in his return to the lineup:

Not bad for a guy who’s missed the past two years due to knee and Achilles injuries. That wasn’t just a dunk on two people, but it was on a dunk on two people vs. the Cavaliers. No team has been better at protecting the rim than the Cavaliers, who rank first in the league in opponent field goal percentage from inside six feet. To be fair, neither of the Cavs’ elite rim protectors were guarding the hoop on that play (Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen), but we don’t discuss semantics on Klay Day.

Thompson isn’t really known for his dunking ability, but the man sure knows how to put together a highlight package. Remember when he dropped 37 points on the Kings in the first quarter:

How about when he drilled an NBA-record 14 three-pointers:

Finally, his Game 6 performance against Kevin Durant and the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals:

It is so good to have this guy back in our lives.

3. Klay Day Controversy

Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after being fouled by the Dallas Mavericks in the third quarter at American Airlines Center on January 05, 2022 in Dallas, Texas.
Image Credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Thompson’s return to the court didn’t go so well for everyone. The sportsbooks took an absolute beating, and not in the way you might expect.

Let me set the stage. Draymond Green wanted to be in the lineup to honor Thompson’s return, so he drew the start even though he wasn’t going to play. He took the jump ball and immediately fouled one of the Cavaliers players, then proceeded to sit for the rest of the game.

The Warriors’ PR Team announced that this was the plan at 8:31 p.m. ET, and The Athletic’s Shams Charania retweeted it at 8:32. That allowed bettors the opportunity to hammer the under on Draymond’s props before the sportsbooks were able to get the lines down.

Unfortunately for the oddsmakers, the place where they were the slowest to react was also the most painful. Both DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook give bettors the ability to make “same-game parlays,” where you can combine wagers from the same contest into one bet. Smart bettors who were quick to react were able to parlay all of Draymond’s unders for some massive damage.

While FanDuel and BetMGM have reportedly paid out all of their wagers, DraftKings has yet to do so. They’ve reached out to ESPN’s David Purdum saying, “the Draymond Green markets offered for the game between the Warriors and Cavaliers on January 9 are currently under review, and bet settlements are on hold pending an investigation.”

It remains to be seen if they will wiggle their way out of this situation. It would be a terrible move from a PR perspective – especially given the competitive atmosphere in the recently opened New York market – but DraftKings is reportedly on the hook for well into seven figures:

How this situation is ultimately handled will have massive implications moving forward. If DraftKings is successful in not paying out this under, it will open the door for it to potentially happen again in the future. This is something worth paying attention to.

4. Born Again Ready

We’ve seen plenty of former NBA players get one final chance this season via the hardship exception. Guys like Stanley Johnson, Darren Collison, and Joe Johnson have all signed 10-day contracts to help out teams dealing with multiple players in health and safety protocols.

However, no one has capitalized on their opportunity like Lance Stephenson.

The man known as “Born Ready” has lived up to his moniker. It started with a 10-day contract with the Hawks, which he parlayed into a 10-day contract with the Pacers.

Reunited with his former squad, Stephenson has turned in some monster performances. It started on January 5, with Lance dropping 20 points on the Nets in the first quarter alone:

He followed that up with a 16-point, 14-assist double-double in the following contest, which the Pacers ultimately won over the Jazz.

Now, it’s being reported that the Pacers are expected to sign Stephenson for the rest of the year. The Pacers have floundered this season, and there’s talk of potentially trading one of their star big men before the deadline. Whatever happens, at least their fans will get to enjoy Stephenson being back in their lives.

5. Monday’s DFS Hero: Domantas Sabonis

Domantas Sabonis #11 of the Indiana Pacers dribbles during the first half against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on November 15, 2021 in New York City.
Image Credit: Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Sabonis is one of the players that the Pacers could reportedly trade before the end of the season. They lost another close game Monday vs. the Celtics, but Sabonis had his full skill set on display. He racked up 10 points, 23 rebounds, and 11 assists, giving him his second triple-double in the past three games. He ultimately finished with 59.25 DraftKings points, making him the top scorer on Monday’s seven-game slate.

It’s been a disappointing season for Sabonis, but he remains one of the most talented big men in the league. Don’t believe me? Sabonis averaged 20.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game last season, which puts him in some elite company. The only other players to average at least 20 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists in a single season are Wilt Chamberlain (twice), Nikola Jokic, Kevin Garnett, and Oscar Robertson. Those are three Hall of Famers and the reigning MVP.

Whether the Pacers choose to trade him or keep him, hopefully, Sabonis is poised for a better second half of the year.

6. Nikola Jokic Dropping Dimes

Speaking of Jokic, it is almost unfair how good he is at basketball. There isn’t a single thing he can’t do, including making some jaw-dropping assists. He threw an absolute beauty to JaMychal Green in one of his recent games:

There’s just something sexy about a big man who can pass like that. And make no mistake about it, Jokic can flat-out pass.

I continue to think that Jokic is massively underpriced to win the MVP for a second straight season. You can get him at +1500 on FanDuel Sportsbook, and that number is extremely appealing. Curry remains the favorite across the industry, but his play has dropped off after a torrid start to the year.

Meanwhile, Jokic continues to get better. He’s up to 25.8 points, 14.2 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game this season, and he has the Nuggets up to the No. 6 spot in the Western Conference. The Nuggets will likely need to make a run at some point if Jokic is going to go back-to-back, but there’s no doubt in my mind that he’s been the best player in the league this season.

7. Philly Special

Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on against the Toronto Raptors during the second half of their basketball game at the Scotiabank Arena on December 28, 2021 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Image Credit: Mark Blinch/Getty Images

The 76ers got off to a slow start this season, but they have been rolling recently. They’ve won seven straight games, and they’ve rattled off five straight covers. That’s the second-longest streak in the league, trailing only the Memphis Grizzlies’ mark of six covers in a row.

The big reason for Philly’s improvement has been the play of Joel Embiid. The talented big man battled through a knee injury earlier this year, and he also spent time in health and safety protocols. However, he appears to be back at full strength.

He’s scored at least 31 points in each of the past seven games, and he’s been scoring extremely efficiently. He’s shot over 56% from the field and 40% from 3-point range during that stretch, and the 76ers have scored at least 110 points in each of those contests.

The 76ers’ recent win streak has propelled them to fifth place in the Eastern Conference. If Embiid can continue to play like he’s played recently, this team should have no problem holding on to a top-five seed. If they can cash Ben Simmons into something that can help them – De’Aaron Fox maybe? – then this team has some legit sleeper appeal.

8. Danny Green (Almost) Makes History

Green came oh so close to joining an exclusive club on January 5. He played more than 23.8 minutes vs. the Rockets, but it was hard to notice him if you weren’t paying attention. In fact, he was initially credited with zero points, rebounds, assists, steals, or blocks in the entire game. If not for his one foul, it would’ve been like he didn’t exist.

The list of players to see that much playing time and not record a single counting stat is slim. There are just seven players who have logged at least 23 minutes and finished with zero points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks: Joel Anthony, Tony Snell, Bruce Bowen, Hollis Thompson, Glen Rice, Jason Collins, and Greg Foster.

Unfortunately, this club was unable to induct Green as an official member. The scorekeeper ended up crediting Green with a steal after the game, albeit a sketchy one:

That’s clearly an Andre Drummond steal – the player who causes the deflection is supposed to get the credit – but the scorekeeper must’ve felt bad for Green. This isn’t quite a Fannie Mae-level bailout, but Green should send that guy a watch or something.

9. LeBron James: Still Really Good at Basketball

LeBron James #6 of the Los Angeles Lakers looks on against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first quarter of the game at Target Center on December 17, 2021 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Image Credit: David Berding/Getty Images

Breaking news: This LeBron fella is pretty good, huh? The Lakers’ season has not gone as planned, especially after Anthony Davis went down with an injury. The Russell Westbrook experiment has been a failure, while most of the team’s aging role players have not lived up to expectations.

Still, LeBron has proven that he can still keep a team afloat, even at 37-years-old. The Lakers have won five of their past seven games, and LeBron has averaged 33.7 points, 9.4 boards, and 6.9 assists per game in those contests. He’s also shot 55.8% from the field, 44.8% from 3-point range, and even 80.9% from the free throw line.

Offensively, the Lakers have averaged an additional +10.2 points per 100 possessions and increased their effective field goal percentage by +6.0% with James on the court this season. Both of those marks put LeBron in the 97th percentile or better in terms of on-court impact per Cleaning the Glass. He hasn’t had the same impact defensively this season, but how much can one man be asked to do? Can you really blame LeBron for not giving 100% effort on defense when he has to do this much on offense?

Keep in mind that LeBron isn’t a regular 37-years-old. He entered the league at 18, so he’s in his 19th professional season. He made it to the NBA Finals in 10 straight seasons, so the toll that his body has taken is immense. When his historic career finally comes to an end, he’s going to be the leader in minutes played by a massive margin. The fact that he’s still one of the best players in the league is a testament not just to his greatness, but also to his ability to prepare himself mentally and physically for the grind.

10. Ja Morant’s Bounce

I’ve talked a lot about Morant in this column this season. Whether he can develop a consistent 3-point shot remains the biggest question with Morant moving forward, but there’s no denying he’s a fun player to watch.

Morant attacks the rim with a ferocity that very few players can match:

Look at that dunk. He threw it down like the rim said something bad about his new hairstyle. Those kinds of dunks are remarkable for a player of his size, and he does it on a regular basis.

However, what Morant did on Sunday took things to another level. He put his athleticism on full display, and he did it with his defense rather than his offense:

My word. He jumps up and nearly two-hand snatches the ball from above the square. Do you realize the kind of vertical you need to do that? He’s not getting a finger on the ball, he went up and got it with his palms. Absolutely ridiculous.

I know that star players never do the dunk contest anymore, but we need to find a way to change that. I need to see this man try to defy gravity. The Grizzlies remain in fourth place in the Western Conference standings, and they’re closer to first than they are to fifth. If this team isn’t at the top of your League Pass ratings, you’re missing out.

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