Welcome to the NBA Betting Dime. If you missed last week’s debut edition, it’s a weekly basketball column that combines some of the game’s best aspects. You can expect to find some analytical deep dives, social media clips, gambling information, and maybe some dumb pop culture references sprinkled in.
This week we’re going to take a look at the greatness of Kevin Durant, Cleveland’s dominance against the spread, and why Nikola Jokic deserves a look (or wager) to win his second-straight MVP.
However, we have to start with the most significant talking point in the NBA this week:
1. Three Is A Magic Number
It’s well established that Steph Curry is the greatest three-point shooter in NBA history, and he’s inching towards Ray Allen’s record for most three-pointers made in his career. He made another five three-pointers Monday vs. the Pacers, so he’s just two away from the all-time record. He will almost certainly get there in his next outing, which will come at Madison Square Garden.
There’s something almost poetic about the record getting clinched there. Curry’s breakout performance came at MSG back in 2013, which has been home for so many monumental moments throughout history. After all, there’s a reason it’s called “the Mecca of Basketball.”
Diving into Curry’s numbers, it’s crazy just how quickly he’s been able to catch Allen. It took Allen 1,300 regular-season games to get to 2,973 made three-pointers. If Curry does it in his next game, it will be in No. 789 for his career. That’s absurd.
The NBA’s offensive revolution has buoyed Curry’s three-point proficiency, but he still stands head and shoulders among his peers. Curry has seven seasons with at least 260 made three-pointers, while his closest comparable – James Harden – has merely four. Add in the fact that Curry missed nearly an entire year due to injury, and he could easily have double the amount of such seasons.
If we look at the truly elite 3-point seasons, Curry stands alone. He’s made more than 300 three-pointers four times in his career, while the rest of the league has done it merely once. That was Harden back in 2019 with the Rockets, and he needed an insane volume of three-point attempts to get there. He shot just 36.8% from downtown in that season, while Curry has been at 41.1% or better in each of his four 300+ three-point seasons.
If Curry continues to make three-pointers at this rate, I’m not sure when someone will eventually catch him. It’s possible the league veers even more towards the three-point shot in the future, but for the time being, no one has mastered the art of the deep ball like Curry. Make sure to take some time to appreciate his greatness Tuesday night vs. the Knicks.
2. Dunk(s) of the Week
The Charlotte Hornets were hit hard by COVID-19 over the past week, losing LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Ish Smith, and others to health and safety protocols. That allowed Hornets’ fans to get a potential glimpse into their future.
The team used draft picks on James Bouknight and J.T. Thor in the 2021 NBA Draft, and both players have spent most of the season in the G League. However, both players saw some court time due to all of the Hornets’ absences, and they made an immediate impact:
JT Thor and James Bouknight have been lighting it up in the G this year for the @greensboroswarm.
Last night, they got Eric Collins HYPED! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/H0xnyyuZFT
— NBA G League (@nbagleague) December 7, 2021
Let’s start with Thor. Not only was his poster dunk an and-one, but it was also on a good shot blocker: Andre Drummond. Drummond catches some heat for his poor defense, but it has nothing to do with his shot-blocking ability. He’s averaged nearly two blocks per 36 minutes this season, so he was a legit opponent.
This was also the first basket of Thor’s career, fitting for someone named “Thor.” If you’re going to make your NBA debut, you might as well do it with a bolt of lightning.
Still, I think Bouknight’s dunk was better. The vertical leap was impressive, and it looked like he was still going up while throwing the ball down. Bouknight didn’t jump at the Combine during the pre-draft process, but he has some serious ups.
Finally, shout out to Eric Collins. The Hornets’ play-by-play man is one of the best in the business for dunk reactions.
3. Houston, We Have Liftoff
The Rockets were expected to be one of the worst teams in basketball this season, and for the first month of the season, that’s exactly what they were. They lost 16 of their first 17 games – including 15 in a row – and they were outscored by an average of -11.0 points per 100 possessions.
They managed to pull off a home upset of the Bulls in their 18th game of the year, but they lost No. 2 pick Jalen Green to an injury in that contest. That makes what happened next even more improbable. The Rockets rattled off six more wins, bringing their win streak to seven in a row. I’m not sure how many teams have had a 15-game losing streak and a seven-game winning streak in the same season, but I can’t imagine it’s very many.
So how did the Rockets do it? Heck if I know. The answer is probably just a string of good luck. They posted an effective field goal percentage of 58.6% during their winning streak, and they posted a mark of just 49.0% during their first 17 games. There’s a reason they say it’s a “make or miss league.” Sometimes the ball goes in, and sometimes it doesn’t.
However, don’t sleep on the absence of Green being a positive for the Rockets. They’ve emphasized the youth movement this season, playing guys like Green and Kevin Porter Jr. heavy minutes. That’s the right decision for their future, but it was always going to result in growing pains. The Rockets’ Net Rating has decreased by a ridiculous -29.6 points per 100 possessions with Green on the court this season, which is obviously one of the worst marks in the league.
Again, this little winning streak ultimately means nothing in the grand scheme of things, so expect Green to jump right back into a heavy role as soon as he’s ready. The Rockets’ future is dependent on his success.
4. The Cavaliers Are Money
Last week, I talked about how the Cavaliers have been the best team against the spread this season. Since then, the Cavs have just kept on winning.
They recorded a 105-94 win over the Bulls on Monday night, which easily covered the 5.5-point spread. Overall, that was the Cavaliers’ 12th-straight cover, which puts them into historic territory. Since 2005, only five previous teams have reeled off 12 straight covers: The 2021 Knicks, 2017 Heat, 2015 Hawks, 2008 Rockets, and 2008 Wizards. Each of those five teams would go on to qualify for the postseason, which bodes well for the Cavs’ chances moving forward.
You can still grab Cleveland at -167 to make the playoffs, and while those odds have improved drastically since the start of the year, they could still be underpriced. It also might make sense to consider a wager on J.B. Bickerstaff to win Coach of the Year.
The Cavs will have a chance to extend their streak to 13 straight on Wednesday at home against the Rockets.
5. Basketball Is Beautiful
This is the NBA Betting Dime, but we have to go back to college to talk about America’s new sweetheart. His name is Connor Williams, and he plays for the St. John Fisher College Cardinals. They’re a D3 squad, but they squared off with Buffalo over the weekend. Williams drew some attention for his unconventional basketball body, but the big man can play! This highlight was like a modern-day Shakespeare, capturing the highs and lows of athletics in a matter of seconds:
The trip. The limp. The DIME.
A true redemption story in 20 seconds. I can’t get enough of Connor Williams pic.twitter.com/9Ti9kaUst8
— Fundamentally Sound (@FundamentallySD) December 11, 2021
Also, shout out to his teammate for finishing the pass with a solid dunk.
Ultimately, stuff like this is what makes basketball beautiful. Is Williams going to be playing in the NBA? Not a chance. But I guarantee you that guy can walk onto almost any court in America and hold his own. There’s a place for anyone on the floor – big or small, it doesn’t matter as long as you can play. Williams led his high school to two division titles and won conference player of the year, so he can definitely play.
6. The Slim Reaper
Kevin Durant reportedly was not a fan of this nickname at first, but he claims it has grown on him. That’s great news because it’s the perfect way to describe him on the basketball court. He is an absolute assassin, capable of picking apart defenses from every level.
Durant put together one of the most remarkable postseason series in basketball history last season vs. the Bucks. Still, it feels like we collectively underappreciate his greatness from time to time. This guy is undoubtedly one of the greatest players ever, and he might be the most efficient scorer in the league’s history.
He’s on pace to lead the league in scoring for the fifth time in his career. His four scoring titles are already tied with Allen Iverson for the second-most in history, trailing only Michael Jordan’s ten.
The scary thing is, Durant doesn’t need to command the same volume of shot attempts as other NBA superstars. He ranks just 12th in usage rate this season, so he makes his mark more with efficiency than volume.
Durant is just one of 10 players in NBA history to average 25 points per game while shooting at least 50% from the field and 40% from 3-point range (qualified players only). Durant has done it three times, joining Larry Bird and Dale Ellis as the only players to do it more than once. He has a chance to do it once again this season – he’s averaging 29.4 points on 52.9% shooting from the field and 38.3% from three-point range – which would break his tie with Bird for the most such seasons in NBA history. Any time you have the potential to do something that hasn’t been done in the storied history of the NBA, you’re on the verge of something special.
7. Nikola Jokic: Back-To-Back?
Curry is the runaway favorite for the NBA MVP at this point in the season. He’s led the Warriors to a 22-5 record, and he’s putting together another fantastic statistical season.
That said, his MVP odds have gotten a little out of hand. He’s dropped to just +130 to win the award on DraftKings Sportsbook, which seems a little crazy with nearly 75% of the season still to go. The sportsbooks have received waves of bets and dollars on Curry to win the MVP, with BetMGM reporting that more than 54% of the handle is on Curry.
That’s creating a bit of value with some other players. Durant (+450) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+650) are considered his top competitors at this point, but I’m getting some shekels down on Jokic at +1600.
From a purely statistical standpoint, Jokic is having a better season than last year. He’s averaging more points and rebounds while shooting an absurd 58.2% from the field. He’s also averaging 7.2 dimes per game, and while that’s slightly lower than last year’s mark, it’s still an unreal tally for a center.
Jokic should continue to carry a massive workload for the Nuggets moving forward. Michael Porter Jr. could miss the rest of the year with a back injury, and it’s still unknown when Jamal Murray will be healthy enough to suit up. That leaves Jokic as the last man standing.
He’s already started to show signs of statistical improvement. He’s increased his usage rate to 35.1% during six December games, and he’s averaged 27.2 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game. If he keeps up that level of production, he’s going to force his way into the MVP conversation.
The Nuggets’ record is really the only black mark on Jokic’s resume. They’re just 13-13 to start the season, and the MVP typically comes from one of the best teams in the league. That means the Nuggets will likely need to go on a run at some point, but I’m not putting that past Jokic. This number is simply too good to pass up.
8. Monday’s DFS Hero: Jayson Tatum
Jokic technically had the top fantasy performance on Monday, but I’ve already waxed poetic about his dominance. It’s getting to the point where Jokic doing what he did on Monday is just kind of expected.
Tatum is a bit more of a surprise. He’s an excellent player, but most of his big games this season have come with Jaylen Brown sidelined. Brown returned to the lineup for Monday’s matchup vs. the Bucks, so expectations for Tatum were relatively low.
Instead, he went bonkers vs. the defending champs, racking up 42 points, five rebounds, four assists, and three steals. He also added seven 3-pointers while shooting 16-25 from the field. His only real blemish was a subpar 60% night from the free throw line, but I don’t think fantasy owners will complain too much. Tatum ultimately finished with 62.25 DraftKings points, and he checked in with average ownership under 15%. He was the definition of a GPP-winner on Monday’s nine-game slate.
9. Can You Spare A Dolla?
Damian Lillard insists he doesn’t want to be traded, so the most rational thing is to work up some fake trades. In all seriousness, it’s been clear for a while that the backcourt of Lillard and C.J. McCollum is not enough to get the Blazers to the Finals, so they need to do something. Running back to the same team repeatedly and expecting different results is literally the definition of insanity.
Trading McCollum is the most logical decision, but it’s not nearly as fun to speculate about. What are some possible Lillard destinations? I’m glad you asked.
The Obvious Swap: Philadelphia 76ers
Ben Simmons’ stock is at an all-time low, so Philly would have to throw in some draft picks and/or prospects to make this work. Still, it’s an easy scenario to see working for both teams.
The 76ers get the outside scoring threat they’ve been looking for to complement Joel Embiid, and it would make them instant title contenders. Adding that duo to Tobias Harris and Seth Curry would give Philly one of the best top fours in the league.
The Blazers get to take a chance on rebuilding an uber-talented player who is a much more natural fit next to McCollum. McCollum can handle the scoring responsibilities in the backcourt, while Simmons can provide elite defense and do a bit of everything else.
The Draft Pick Special: Boston Celtics
There’s absolutely no reason for the Blazers to consider this trade for just Horford and Richardson, but what if it came with three first-round picks and three pick swaps?
The Horford and Richardson contracts aren’t as bad as they look on the surface, either. Horford has played better this season, and he’s owed just $14.5M guaranteed next year. Richardson is on the books for $12.2M next year, and while he’s overpaid, expiring contracts have value in the NBA. It would give the Blazers some flexibility if they wanted to parlay some of their newly-acquired draft picks into a trade should another superstar become available.
This is sort of a nuclear option for the Blazers, but blowing things up wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.
The appeal for the Celtics is obvious, and it would be a stroke of genius for Brad Stevens if he could pull it off. The idea of pairing Lillard with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown should make Celtics’ fans mouths water.
The Rich Get Richer: Golden State Warriors
The initial thought of adding Lillard to the Warriors seems ridiculous, but it’s more feasible than you think. They can arguably put together one of the most appealing trade packages for Lillard, depending on how you feel about Wiseman and Kuminga. Wiseman was the No. 2 overall pick in 2020, and while his rookie season didn’t go as he’d planned, he’s still oozing with upside. Kuminga is also a project, but the No. 7 overall pick in 2021 is another strong asset. Add in Wiggins – a former No. 1 overall pick himself – to go along with a couple of first-rounders? I have to say, I don’t hate that haul for the Blazers.
As a basketball fan, this is now the only situation I’m rooting for. The thought of Lillard, Curry, and Klay Thompson all sharing the court with Draymond Green is the best kind of basketball porn.
10. Ok, Basketball Is Not Always Beautiful
We’re going to have to go back to college hoops one more time to wrap things up. I will fully admit, I am not a college hoops fan. I’ve never understood the people that say it’s better than the NBA. You can say they play better defense, but I would argue that college kids just can’t shoot. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll veg out on the couch and watch 12 hours of the NCAA tournament, but that’s more because of the greatness of gambling than pure entertainment value.
The ugly side of basketball was on full display when Texas Tech took on Tennessee in the Jimmy V Classic. This slobber knocker ended with a final score of 57-52, and it needed overtime just to crack 100 total points.
The lowlight from this contest was undoubtedly a wide-open blown layup by Josiah-Jordan James:
Texas Tech vs Tennessee has reached “so bad it’s good” levels pic.twitter.com/gC48QN2REn
— Anthony Riccobono (@Tony_Riccobono) December 8, 2021
James would go down clutching his leg, but anyone who has ever played basketball knows that’s what you have to do after you smoke a layup that badly. Faking an injury is the only option. James unsurprisingly ended up being just fine, and he would actually hit the 3-pointer that sent the game to overtime.
Some other notables from this contest: These teams shot a combined 28.8% from the field, Tennessee missed 18 straight 3-point attempts, and Texas Tech went nearly eight full minutes without a bucket. If this kind of “defense” is what makes college basketball so great, I’ll gladly stick to the pros.
