The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, Sept. 14
Cal Quantrill: Cleveland Guardians
Matchup: Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians | 1:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.50 ERA indicates
Quantrill has seen mixed results this season. He owns a 12-5 record with a 3.50 ERA through 27 starts. He’s struggled a bit more than that, though, as he owns a 4.44 xFIP through 157 innings.
Quantrill has dominated in recent games. He’s allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. With that being said, he’s posted a 4.50 or worse xFIP in 3 of his last 5 starts. One of those starts was a 5.92 xFIP against the Detroit Tigers.
Quantrill gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Angels today. The Angels have seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .305 team wOBA over the last 14 days. They’ve been playing better in recent weeks with Mike Trout finally healthy.
Bottom Line: Quantrill is due for plenty of regression, specifically in recent games. He gets a decent matchup against Los Angeles, and I’m favoring the Angels in this matchup.
JP Sears: Oakland A’s
Matchup: Oakland A’s at Texas Rangers | 8:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.33 ERA suggests
Sears has thrown extremely well through limited innings this season. He’s posted a 5-2 record with a 3.33 ERA through 13 games (8 starts) in 2022. He’s also recorded a a 4.62 xFIP, and he’s due for plenty of regression as he throws more innings.
Sears has been an up-and-down pitcher throughout the season, but he’s been struggling quite a bit in recent games. He’s posted an xFIP over his 3.33 ERA in seven consecutive starts. Over that span, his highest xFIP (7.07) came in his last start against the Chicago White Sox.
Sears gets a matchup against the Texas Rangers tonight. The Rangers have been struggling, posting a .398 team wOBA over the last 14 days. Texas has found solid success against left-handed pitching, though.
Bottom Line: It’s only a matter of time before Sears gets rocked by someone. The Rangers aren’t a dominant offense, but they can find success in this particular matchup.
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Patrick Corbin: Washington Nationals
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.30 ERA suggests
This might be the grossest play ever on this article. Corbin has been atrocious this season, recording a 6-18 record with a 6.30 ERA through 28 starts. His .364 BABIP and 4.17 xFIP suggest he’s been extremely unlucky this season.
Corbin has quietly been throwing well in recent games. He’s posted 3.85, 3.60, and 3.93 xFIPs in his last 3 starts. He saw positive regression in two of those games as well.
Corbin gets a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. They’ve recorded a .304 team wOBA over the last 14 days. They’ve also struggled to produce outside of Baltimore at times this season.
Bottom Line: Corbin isn’t a good pitcher by any stretch, but he’s drastically better than his ERA suggests. He’s been throwing better in recent games, and he could find some success in this matchup.