The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, June 29
Alex Wood: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: San Francisco Giants vs. Detroit Tigers | 3:45 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.05 ERA indicates
Wood’s seen mixed results throughout the season. He’s posted a 5-6 record with a 5.05 ERA through 14 starts. The key here is that he also owns a 3.45 xFIP, suggesting he’s throwing significantly better than his ERA shows.
Wood hasn’t been a consistent option throughout the season, though. He’s posted sub-3.00 xFIPs in 6 of his 14 starts this season. With that being said, he’s also posted 17.54 and 5.24 xFIPs over his last 2 starts.
Luckily, Wood returns home today, where he owns a 3.02 xFIP on the season. He also gets a solid matchup against the Detroit Tigers. They rank in the bottom 10 of the MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
Bottom Line: This is an outstanding matchup for Wood, and he could see plenty of positive regression in this start.
Michael Kopech: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels | 9:38 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.59 ERA indicates
Kopech is enjoying an outstanding season up until this point. He owns a 2-4 record with a 2.59 ERA through 13 starts. Kopech’s recorded a 4.75 xFIP, though, suggesting he could be due for quite a bit of regression.
We’ve seen regression hit Kopech slightly in his last few games, allowing 7 earned runs over 11 innings, but that still hasn’t been nearly enough. Ultimately, the young right-hander hasn’t been throwing overly well in 2022, as he’s posted an xFIP over 4.00 in 10 of his 13 starts. He’s also posted an xFIP over 6.00 in 4 of those starts.
This is an interesting spot for Michael Kopech, though. He gets an elite matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who continue to struggle offensively. They feature one of the lowest team wOBAs (.292) in the MLB over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Kopech is a pitcher that is due for quite a bit of regression as the season progresses, but this may not be the specific matchup that he sees it. Ultimately, it’s a risky but interesting situation.
Julio Urias: Los Angeles Dodgers
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 pm ET
Outlook: Slightly negative – throwing worse than 2.48 ERA suggests
Urias is another young pitcher who is enjoying an outstanding season. He carries a 5-6 record with a 2.48 ERA through 14 starts. He also owns a 3.97 xFIP and .231 BABIP, suggesting he’s gotten a bit lucky throughout the season.
Urias has been throwing at a high level in recent games, posting 2.11, 3.85, and 1.27 xFIPs in his last 3 starts. Overall, he’s thrown well this season, but he has a few games where his ERA sat well below a terrible xFIP.
Urias is getting a matchup against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on Wednesday. This is one of the most difficult matchups for any left-hander in the MLB. Colorado boasts a .891 OPS at home against lefties, which ranks second in the MLB.
Bottom Line: The last four left-handed starting pitchers in Colorado have given up four-plus earned runs. That list includes Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson, Blane Snell, and MacKenzie Gore. Urias could be the next in line to struggle in this matchup.
