The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, July 4
Dean Kremer: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles | 1:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 1.29 ERA indicates
Kremer’s stats aren’t overly trustworthy, as he’s only thrown five games this season. Through 28 innings, he’s posted a 2-1 record with a 1.29 ERA. Kremer also recorded a 4.69 xFIP, which is actually the best of his career.
The right-hander posted a 3.44 xFIP against the Tampa Bay Rays earlier this season, but he recorded xFIPs around 4.50 or higher in each of his other 4 starts in 2022. Kremer’s allowed 9.5% barrel and 42.9% hard-hit rates throughout the season as well.
He gets an interesting matchup against the Texas Rangers, who rank only 24th in the MLB in OPS (.672) against right-handed pitching. The Rangers have been playing better in recent games. However, Texas ranks seventh in team wOBA (.331) over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Kremer is due for plenty of regression, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets rocked in a short start. I’m not entirely sold the Rangers will be the team to dominate him, but they do have the potential.
Alek Manoah: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland A’s | 9:07 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.09 ERA suggests
Manoah is an extremely solid pitcher at this point in his career, but he isn’t as good as his numbers suggest. He’s recorded a 9-2 record with a 2.09 ERA through 15 starts. He also posted a 3.77 xFIP this season. Oddly enough, Manoah beat roughly one earned run worth of regression in 2021, and he may be a pitcher that simply throws better than his xFIP suggests.
The Blue Jays right-hander’s seen mixed results in recent games. He’s posted an ERA below his xFIP in 5 of his last 6 starts. He recorded an xFIP of 3.48 or higher in each of those 6 starts, including a trio of starts north of 4.00.
Fortunately for Manoah, he gets a great matchup against the Oakland A’s tonight. Oakland ranks last in the MLB in OPS (.591) against right-handed pitching. They also rank last in the league in team wOBA (.265) over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Manoah is a high-level pitcher, but he’ll find some regression as the season continues. He isn’t likely to get shelled at any point like Kremer, and I don’t expect him to struggle against a weak Oakland offense tonight. Manoah should be fine for at least one more start.
Hunter Greene: Cincinnati Reds
Matchup: New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds | 6:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.72 ERA suggests
Greene’s arguably the most electric young pitcher in the MLB. He basically only has two pitches, but struggles with control. He posted a 3-9 record with a 5.72 ERA through 15 starts this far in his MLB career. With that being said, his 4.12 xFIP sits well below his ERA, and we can expect some positive regression as the season continues.
Greene isn’t the most consistent option in the MLB, but he’s recorded a 4.30 or better xFIP in 7 of his last 8 starts. He struggled against the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 5.50 xFIP, although his 10.8 ERA sat well above that number anyway.
Greene will face off against an interesting New York Mets team. They’ve performed well against right-handed pitching this season, ranking seventh in the MLB with a .736 OPS. They’ve been struggling over the last 14 days, though, recording a .282 team wOBA, which ranks second-last in the league.
Bottom Line: Greene’s struggles with control always make him a risky option, but he could see positive regression in a solid matchup against a struggling offense tonight.
