The Mavericks are set to face the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, May 13. The game is scheduled for 9:30 ET while airing on TNT. Dallas enters this game as 1-point favorites with the total set at 214.5. How will this one play out? Let’s dive into the Mavericks vs Thunder predictions below.
Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds
- Spread: Mavericks -1
- Total 214.5
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Game Info
- Date: Monday, May 13
- Time: 9:30 ET
- Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas TX
- TV: TNT
Thunder Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
- Oklahoma City has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 101 points per game while allowing 93. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
- Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Thunder have gone 0-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 0-3.
Mavericks Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Mavericks have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
- In their last three home games, Dallas has averaged 112 points per game while allowing 106. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
- Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Mavericks have gone 7-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 7-3.
The Mavericks picked up a 105-101 win in the most recent game of this Thunder vs. Mavericks series. Dallas was favored by 1.5 points and covered the spread. The over/under line of 217.5 was 11.5 points off the actual combined total of 206 points. P.J. Washington led all scorers with 27 points and also hit five threes. Luka Doncic added 22 points and 15 rebounds for the Mavericks.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a big game for the Thunder, finishing with 31 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists. He also hit two threes. However, the Thunder only made 10 threes as a team and shot just 33.3% from beyond the arc. The Mavericks and Thunder both shot 33.3% from three.
Are the Thunder Ready for a Road Win?
Today, the Thunder are looking to avoid a three-game losing streak after losing to the Mavericks in their most recent game (105-101). In that game, the O/U line was 217.5, and OKC was a 1.5-point underdog.
Oklahoma City has a record of 57-25 this season, which is the best in the Western Conference. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 36-16 and 21-9 in non-conference games.
As the underdog, the Thunder have gone 10-12 this season and are 12-10 ATS as the underdog. Their ATS record as the underdog is also 12-10. This season, they have been the underdog in 22 of their 82 games.
On the road, the Thunder have an average scoring differential of +2.3 points per game. Their ATS record on the road is 22-22 compared to 29-16 straight up. Overall, they are 26-18 on the road.
Oklahoma City’s O/U record for the season is 46-42-1, and their games have averaged 230.5 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 214.5 is lower than their season average of 230.8.
Oklahoma City comes into the game as the NBA’s top three-point shooting team, hitting 38% of their shots from downtown. Overall, they are 3rd in field goal percentage, at 49%. The Thunder’s offense is averaging 120.1 points per game, which is also the 3rd best mark in the league. Despite their high-scoring offense, they have been below the league average in terms of scoring in 37.8% of their games this season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.2 points per game over his last five games and 30.1 points per game for the season. This season, he has averaged 6.2 assists and 5.5 rebounds. Luguentz Dort has hit 39.4% of his three-point shots this year, followed by Jalen Williams at 42.7%.
The Thunder enter tonight’s game against the Mavericks ranked 10th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 111.4. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 3rd in the league at just 98.6 points per game.
On the season, Oklahoma City has been a strong defensive team inside the arc, ranking 2nd in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 51.7%. They have also been a force in the paint, ranking 1st in the NBA in blocked shots per game at 6.6.
One area where the Thunder have struggled defensively this season is defending the three-point line. On the year, they are 21st in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.0%. Over their last five games, however, they have been much better in this area, ranking 8th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 33.6%.
Can the Mavericks Lock in a Home Win?
The Mavericks have gone 41-50 on the over/under this season, and their games have averaged 231.2 points per game. Today’s O/U line is 214.5, and 87 of their games have had higher O/U lines than that.
Dallas’ ATS record for the season is 54-37, and they have covered the spread in their last two games. At home, they are 24-21 ATS, and their average scoring margin vs. the spread is +3.8 points per game.
As the favorite, the Mavericks have gone 42-15 this season, and they have won three straight games as the favorite. In their games as the favorite, they are 37-20 vs. the spread, and their scoring margin is +7.0 PPG.
In their most recent game against the Thunder, the Mavericks won 105-101 as 1.5-point favorites. The O/U line for that game was 217.5, and the teams combined for 206 points.
Dallas is currently 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. In non-conference games, they are 19-11 compared to 31-21 against the West. At home, the Mavericks are 28-17, and they have won two straight games at home.
For the season, the Mavericks are 8th in scoring at 117.9 points per game. Their scoring average at home is 117.7 points per contest, which is 9th in the league. Dallas is 3rd in both three-point attempts and makes this season but are just 15th in three-point shooting percentage. Looking at their two-point shooting, the Mavericks are 6th in the league.
Luka Doncic is averaging 26.6 points, 8.8 assists, and 9 rebounds over his last five games. This is below his season scoring average of 33.9 points per game. Kyrie Irving is averaging 25.6 points per game this season. P.J. Washington has hit 3.6 threes per game over his last five games on a three-point shooting percentage of 47.4%.
When looking at the Dallas Mavericks’ defense, they rank 17th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 114.4. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 7th in the league at 104.4 points per game.
One area where opponents have been able to take advantage of Dallas is from beyond the arc. On the season, teams are shooting 36.8% from three against the Mavericks, which is 17th in the NBA. Over their last five games, they have done a better job of defending the three-point line, ranking 7th in three-point percentage allowed at 32.8%.
Overall, opposing teams have scored more than their season average in 61.0% of their games vs. Dallas. When looking at made free-throws, the Mavericks are 25th in the NBA in fewest made free-throws allowed per game over their last five games.
Mavericks vs. Thunder Player Prop
A player prop we are looking at is Luka Doncic and his points prop of 28.5. Currently, the over for this prop is sitting at a payout of -125 while the under is at -109. Our projections have Luka Doncic going 12/26 from the field on his way to 36 points. Our recommended bet is take the over on his prop bet with a payout of -125.
- The Prop: Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points (-125)
Mavericks vs. Thunder Predictions
The Thunder come in as the underdog at +1, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.
As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 214.5 and our model has the Thunder and Mavericks finishing with a combined 232 points. Our pick is to take the over.
The Pick: Thunder +1 | at Fanduel Sportsbook