Preseason expectations are already starting to recede for two teams that face off Thursday.
The Boston Red Sox reached the American League Championship Series last year but are already 13 games out of first place in the AL East. The Seattle Mariners just missed ending a 20-year postseason drought in 2021 and got off to a solid start this season but are now in fourth place in the AL West. Both have losing records.
The matchup on the mound for Thursday’s opener of a four-game series at Fenway Park couldn’t be starker. While Mariners hurler George Kirby will be making his third career start, Rich Hill is in his third stint with the Red Sox in a career spanning 18 seasons and 11 teams.
Props.com breaks down Mariners vs Red Sox odds for one of just three games under the lights Thursday.
Odds via WynnBet and updated as of 6:15 p.m. ET on May 19.
Seattle Mariners (17-21) vs Boston Red Sox (15-22)
First pitch/TV: 7:10 p.m. ET/MLB Network & MLB.TV
Moneyline: Red Sox -118/Mariners +108
Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+150)/Mariners +1.5 (-180)
Total: 8.5 (Over/Under -110)
Pitching matchup: RHP George Kirby (0-0, 0.90 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) vs LHP Rich Hill (1-1, 2.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)
Season series: First meeting. Discounting the 2020 pandemic season in which the teams didn’t play one another, Boston has gone 4-3 against Seattle five of the last six seasons, including in 2021. The lone exception was 2017, when the Mariners and Red Sox split six meetings.
Did you know: The Mariners haven’t reached the playoffs since 2001, the longest drought not only in baseball but all of North American professional team sports. In that time, the Red Sox have won four World Series titles.
About the Mariners
Hits & Misses: Seattle avoided a three-game sweep in Toronto with Wednesday’s 5-1 victory. The Mariners are 5-5 in their last 10 after going 1-10 in the 11 previous games, which spoiled an 11-6 start to the season. Even with Wednesday’s win in Canada, the M’s are just 8-14 on the road. They trail first-place Houston by seven games. Seattle is in the middle of the pack in several team stats (18th in batting average, 14th in home runs, 19th in team ERA, 15th in bullpen ERA). The Mariners are also 19th in MLB’s betting standings (-2.48 units). 3B Ty France has been a standout, hitting .325/.398/.477 with six home runs and 27 RBIs. The Mariners are 5-2 to the Under in their last seven but only slightly to the Under for the season at 19-18-1.
Kirby vs Red Sox: The rookie right-hander will make his third career start. He allowed three runs (only one earned) on seven hits in 10 combined innings against Tampa Bay and the New York Mets. He posted eight strikeouts against just one walk. Kirby, a 24-year-old who was drafted 20th overall by Seattle in the 2019 draft, possesses a powerful arm, sometimes hitting 100 mph.
Key injuries: 1B Evan White (sports hernia) is on a rehab assignment in Triple-A Tacoma. … RP Erik Swanson (right elbow inflammation) is on track to return from the 15-day injured list at the end of the month.
About the Red Sox
Hits & Misses: Boston is 5-3 in its last eight following a 1-7 skid. The Red Sox bullpen should be fresh Thursday after Nick Pivetta went the distance in Wednesday’s 5-1 victory over Houston at Fenway Park. Boston has three of the top 10 batting averages in baseball in its lineup with 3B Rafael Devers (.340, 3rd), SS Xander Bogaerts (.336, 6th) and DH J.D. Martinez (.325, 7th). However the Red Sox rank 27th as a team in home runs and 22nd in runs scored (3.81 per game). They also rank 27th in the wagering standings (-7.02 units). Only the Nationals, Tigers and Reds have been less profitable. Boston has leaned strongly to the Under this season at 21-11-5.
Hill vs Mariners: The ultra-veteran left-hander has allowed only two earned runs in his past four starts after giving up seven in his first two outings of the season. In his last trip to the mound, Hill yielded three runs (two earned) on seven hits in six innings in an 11-3 win over Texas. That was his longest outing of the season; the 42-year-old didn’t make it through five innings in his first four starts. Hill has a solid 21-7 K/BB ratio. He faced Seattle only once last season when he was with Tampa Bay, allowing four runs in five innings, with the Rays losing 6-5. For his career, Hill is 4-0 against the Mariners with a 2.64 ERA in 13 appearances (six starts).
Key injuries: None.
Notable Trends
- SEA is in slumps of 4-10 on the road, 5-13 as an underdog and 0-6 after a win
- BOS is 5-1 in its last six series openers
- BOS is 2-6 in its last eight at home and 1-6 in its last seven as a favorite
- Under is 5-1 in SEA’s last six vs. left-handed SPs
- Under is 5-1-1 in BOS’s last seven at home
- BOS is on runs of 13-6 overall and 42-19 at home against Seattle
- Over is 16-5 in the last 21 series meetings
- Over is 6-1 in the last seven Mariners-Red Sox battles in Boston
Mariners vs Red Sox Odds and Action
UPDATE 6:15 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The Red Sox opened as -125 favorites at WynnBet, went quickly to -128, then trickled down to -118, with 69% of bets on Boston but 59% of money on the Mariners. The total opened at 8.5 (-110) and is back to that number, despite some movement throughout the day, with 60% of bets and 64% of money on the Under. The total moved as high as 8.5 (Over -125) and as low as 8 (-110) before returning to the opener of 8.5 (-110).
UPDATE 12:25 P.M. THURSDAY: DraftKings opened Mariners vs Red Sox odds at Boston -130/Seattle +110 overnight. That number shot up to Boston -135/Seattle +115 three hours ago, then slid down to the opener on its way to Boston -120/Seattle +100. The moneyline is currently at Red Sox -125/Mariners +105, with 54% of the early bets and 74% of the early action on the home team at DraftKings.
The total opened at 8.5/Over -120 but it has been toggling between 8 and 8.5 (with multiple juice adjustments) since about 8:45 a.m. ET. It’s now back to 8.5 with -110 juice both ways. There’s a split opinion on the total at DraftKings, as 57% of the wagers are on the Over but 88% of the cash is on the Under.
Check back prior to first pitch for updates on Mariners vs Red Sox odds and action.