Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA props from Friday’s slate of 10 games.
NBA props and odds via DraftKings and updated as of 3 pm ET on March 11.
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Boston Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum
The Prop: 40.5 points/rebounds/assists (vs. Detroit)
The Odds: Over -125/Under -110
Friday will mark Tatum’s fourth meeting with the Pistons in the last five weeks, which seems like a lapse on the part of the NBA’s schedule-makers.
How did Tatum fare in the previous three encounters? He averaged 36 points/rebounds/assists and cleared tonight’s 40.5 total just once (34, 31, 43 PRAs).
Does that make the Under a lock on this Friday NBA prop? Heck no!
Here’s why:
Tatum has been a man possessed lately, rolling for 52, 62, 48, and 48 points/rebounds/assists in his last four games (52.5 average). During this span, the Duke product averaged 42 points per outing — which by itself would beat Friday’s prop number.
In seven games since Feb. 24, Tatum is shooting 49.7 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from beyond the arc. He attempted 20-plus field goals in all seven contests … and chucked up at least seven 3-pointers on six occasions.
In other words, it’s difficult to envision the Pistons — who field the NBA’s fourth-worst field-goal defense (47.4%) — putting the clamps on the red-hot Tatum. Especially since Bulls playmaker DeMar DeRozan crushed Detroit for 36 points just 48 hours ago.
The Celtics, who were idle Thursday night, are averaging 115.3 points per contest in their last 17 games, and they posted victories in 15 of those outings. The biggest reason for this 15-2 SU spurt? Tatum. Might as well ride the Boston big man one more time Friday night.
Atlanta Hawks: PG Trae Young
The Prop: 9.5 assists (vs. L.A. Clippers)
The Odds: Over -135/Under +105
Go ahead and pencil Young in for tonight’s Over, barring unforeseen injury.
Young has averaged 9.7 assists in his last nine home games; and for this stretch, he surpassed Friday’s 9.5 total six times (13, 11, 11, 11, 12, and 10 dimes).
The two-time All-Star has produced double-digit assists 33 times this season — a healthy occurrence rate of 55 percent.
And charting his last 10 matchups with Western Conference foes, Young boasts stellar averages of 10.8 assists — with eight efforts of 10-plus dimes.
The only knocks here, relative to the Over:
The Clippers are yielding the 13th-fewest assists this season (24.0 per game).
And Young has fallen short of double-digit assists three times in his last four meetings with the Clippers, including the Jan. 9 meeting.
But these are minor concerns, especially since Young (last played Wednesday) will be operating on sufficient rest. This appears to be one of the better NBA props of the night.
Utah Jazz: C Rudy Gobert
The Prop: 13.5 rebounds (at San Antonio)
The Odds: Over -130/Under -105
Check out the boldness of DraftKings, installing Gobert as a prohibitive favorite for tonight’s ambitious Over.
Is that a wise strategy? It certainly looks good on paper.
Here’s why:
Gobert has averaged 15 rebounds over his last 12 road outings; and for this stretch, the Frenchman cleared Friday’s 13.5 total eight times (17, 17 14, 18, 16, 19, 17, and 14 boards).
Charting his last six encounters with the Spurs, Gobert corralled 14-plus rebounds four times (14, 15, 16, and 14).
San Antonio is allowing the sixth-most rebounds to the opposition (46.8 per game).
Plus, Gobert will be playing on solid rest, since the Jazz were idle Thursday.
Here’s another thing to ponder, regarding the Over: There’s essentially a 1 in 5 chance that Rudy obliterates tonight’s total. Of his 51 seasonal games, Gobert pulled down 18 or more rebounds 11 times — a robust occurrence rate of 21.5 percent.
Phoenix Suns: SG Devin Booker
The Prop: 25.5 points (vs. Toronto)
The Odds: Over -115/Under -110
At first blush, Friday’s prop reads like a layup for the Over crowd.
For the season, Booker’s averaging 25.6 points per game, while shooting 45 percent from the field and 37.2 percent from beyond the arc
Booker has averaged 27.2 points in his last nine home games, which includes seven efforts of 26-plus points (30, 30, 26, 26, 35, 28, and 29).
The Raptors own middle-of-the-pack rankings with field-goal defense (18th overall, 46.1%), 3-point defense (17th, 35.2%), and 3-pointers allowed to the opposition (15th, 12.3 per game).
Plus, the injury-plagued Suns won’t have Chris Paul (thumb), Cameron Johnson (quadriceps), or Frank Kaminsky (knee) for some time, thus relying on Booker to shoulder more of the scoring burden.
And yet, it’s still hard to quantify the ramifications of Paul’s absence, in relation to Booker.
Since Paul sustained his injury, Booker has scored 25, 30, 30, and 23 points in the ensuing four outings. That’s a nice tidy average of 27 points, but hardly a guarantee for eclipsing tonight’s Over.
Especially since none of Toronto’s last six opponents have gone beyond 108 points.
Thankfully, rest won’t be a concern for Booker, who was idle Thursday and logged 33 minutes on Wednesday.
Los Angeles Lakers: PF LeBron James
The Prop: 2.5 made 3-pointers (vs. Washington)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -120
LeBron has averaged three made triples over his last six home games (18 of 45), a healthy shooting rate of 40 percent.
Plus, during that home stretch, James buried three or more treys four times (6, 3, 3, 3).
Contrast that with numbers away from Staples Center: James connected on just 12 of 51 3-pointers from his last six road outings, a ghastly proficiency rate of 23.5 percent.
And for the season, we could cite only four road games in which LeBron drained four-plus triples — none of which occurred after the calendar turned to 2022.
Regarding tonight’s foe, the Wizards are allowing the second-fewest 3-pointers this season (10.9 per game). However, opposing teams are also shooting 45.9 percent from beyond the arc versus Washington.
In other words, Friday’s prop will likely come down to volume shooting.
Counting his last 18 games, regardless of venue, LeBron (idle Thursday night) attempted seven-plus triples a staggering 17 times.
