The NBA Playoffs are in full swing, and so are our NBA props.
If you are new to NBA props, you can check out our complete NBA Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed. If you are a regular to these select proposition bets, then you know the drill by now: We will select a pair of Bucks vs Celtics player props, as well as two from the Warriors vs Grizzlies nightcap on Friday.
Want to dive deeper into researching NBA props? Our sister site, Betprep.com, has a handy Prop Betting Cheat Sheet, along with several tools to help you pinpoint betting value. It’s a handy screening tool that we use to formulate the following recommendations.
Speaking of which, how about we jump into the highlighted NBA props for Friday’s two-game playoff slate?
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 10 a.m. ET on May 13.
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Bucks vs Celtics Player Props
Milwaukee Bucks: F/C Bobby Portis
The prop: 11.5 points (vs. Boston)
The odds: Over -120/Under -105
Portis was a beast on the glass in Game 5, piling up 15 boards while igniting a Milwaukee comeback victory. However, we aren’t looking at his rebounding prop on Friday, as Portis’ scoring prop seems to hold more betting value. Here’s why:
- Portis is averaging 14.6 points per game this season.
- Portis has scored 12-plus points in six of his last eight games in the playoffs.
- Including the postseason, Portis is averaging 13.7 points per game against the Celtics.
Portis is shooting just 42 percent in the postseason. However, Portis shot 48 percent from the field in the regular season, meaning we haven’t seen Portis’ best effort when it comes to putting the ball in the basket. Despite that, he has still surpassed this scoring total in six of the last eight games.
With Milwaukee aiming to clinch this series at home, go ahead and look for Portis to keep scoring in Game 6.
Milwaukee Bucks: G Jrue Holiday
The prop: 5.5 rebounds (vs. Boston)
The odds: Over +105/Under -140
It’s hard to believe that Portis and Giannis Antetokounmpo leave any rebounds for their teammates. After all, the duo combined for 26 boards in Game 5. Still, Holiday was able to snag eight rebounds himself in that contest, and he could do it again on Friday.
Don’t let his 6-foot-3 stature fool you: Holiday is a solid rebounding guard. He averaged 4.5 boards per game in the regular season, but that number has risen to 6.0 in 10 playoff games. In addition, Holiday has corralled six-plus boards in four of five games in this series against the Celtics.
So what’s going on here? Is Holiday all of a sudden crashing the boards like stat-padding maestro Russell Westbrook? As it turns out, seeing extra minutes in these playoff games goes a long way. Holiday is averaging 40 minutes per contest against Boston, a 21 percent increase from his regular-season average of 33 minutes. That uptick has helped Holiday average 7.0 rebounds in this series, and the sportsbooks are still slow to adjust.
Take advantage of this plus-money bet to the Over.
Warriors vs Grizzlies Player Props
Memphis Grizzlies: F/C Jaren Jackson Jr.
The prop: 17.5 points (at Golden State)
The odds: Over -125/Under +100
This was our best NBA prop of the night on Wednesday, and you better believe we aren’t afraid to fire it up once again.
Similar to the Holiday situation, sportsbooks seem slow to adjust to changes in playing time (and usage) this postseason. That’s especially the case with Jackson, who’s seeing a heavier workload due to Ja Morant’s absence. Jackson’s numbers in the past two games with Morant out:
- Game 4: 21 points in 34 minutes (7-21 FG)
- Game 5: 21 points in 25 minutes (6-10 FG)
Mind you, Game 5 was a blowout, so Jackson would’ve seen more playing time and shots if the atmosphere was more competitive (as it should be in Game 6).
We said this on Wednesday, and it still rings true: Jackson has consistently stepped up in Morant’s absence this season. In 21 games without his All-Star point guard, Jackson averaged 18.5 points and a 28.1 percent usage rate. Compare that to 15.5 points per game and a 24.7 percent usage rate in 57 games with Morant on the floor.
As always, foul trouble is a concern for the Grizzlies’ big man, but Jackson has actually done a good job of keeping his hands to himself (for the most part) in this series. As a result, he’s averaging 30 minutes per game, more than enough time for him to fly past 17.5 points.
Memphis Grizzlies: G Tyus Jones
The prop: 15.5 points (at Golden State)
The odds: Over -130/Under +105
Jackson isn’t the only Memphis player who sees a boost with Morant on the sidelines. Tyus Jones has worked himself into a crucial role for the Grizzlies while trying his best to replicate Morant’s production. Although there’s less pizazz to his game, Jones’ imitation of the All-Star point guard has been pretty solid. Jones’ numbers in two games with Morant out:
- Game 4: 41 minutes, 19 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists
- Game 5: 24 minutes, 21 points, 3 rebounds, 9 assists
So what can we expect for Game 6 at Golden State? For starters, Jones is brimming with confidence in this heightened role. This should be a tight game, and Jones could push for 40 minutes and 15-plus field-goal attempts, similar to his numbers from Game 4.
If that’s the case, then Jones could cover this 15.5-point prop with room to spare.
