The Eagles are massive betting favorites tonight. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll take the air out of the ball and ride the running game from start to finish. Conversely, while the Commanders will likely have to play catch up, not everyone will be involved in the passing attack. Let’s use these angles to break down our top three Eagles vs. Commanders player props for Monday Night Football.
Eagles vs. Commanders Player Props: Week 10
Here are the three Eagles vs. Commanders player props I like for Monday Night Football.
Jalen Hurts Over 238.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Washington’s run defense is stingy. First, according to Pro-Football-Reference, they have allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game (113.2). Second, per Football Outsiders, Washington is second in run defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Conversely, the Commanders have a lousy pass defense. Washington is 25th in pass defense DVOA. Since teams have struggled to run and found success through the air against Washington, opponents have wisely routinely passed in neutral game scripts against the Commanders.
According to numberFire, Washington’s opponents have attempted 203 passes and only 154 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this season. The Eagles are now a balanced offense after running a run-first offense last year. Further, they attempted 10 passes and seven rushes when in a neutral game script against the Commanders in Week 3.
Jalen Hurts is having an MVP-caliber year and is making strides in the passing game, averaging 255.3 passing yards per game. In addition, Hurts shredded the Commanders in Week 3, passing for 340 yards. He shouldn’t have any trouble picking them apart in the rematch. So, I’m betting Hurts passes for more than 238.5 yards.
Where to bet: Jalen Hurts Over 238.5 Passing Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Miles Sanders Under 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Miles Sanders has a challenge against Washington’s stout rush defense. Philly’s lead back found the sledding tough against the Commanders in Week 3, amassing only 46 rushing yards on 15 attempts.
In addition, he had a perfect game script in the first game. So, even though the Eagles are commanding favorites tonight, it’s not a given Sanders will exceed 68.5 rushing yards. Sanders has faced only three average or better defenses in rush defense DVOA, and he’s fallen short of 68.5 rushing yards twice.
Sanders also might cede some carries late if the Eagles blow out the Commanders. In the six games in which Boston Scott was active, Sanders had 48 carries, Scott had 16, and Kenneth Gainwell had 12 when the Eagles led by at least seven points. So there are multiple paths for Sanders to come up short of 68.5 rushing yards. Thus, I’ll take his under.
Where to bet: Miles Sanders Under 68.5 Rushing Yards |-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
John Bates Under 1.5 Receptions (-210)
Frankly, I didn’t expect to see any John Bates’ receiving props listed anywhere. He’s not listed in every sportsbook, but this gem is on DraftKings Sportsbook. The second-year tight end is buried in Washington’s pass-catching hierarchy.
Heck, he’s buried on Washington’s depth chart at his position. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he’s had snap shares of 31%, 33%, and 39% in the previous three weeks. Logan Thomas was out in the first game of the sample but had snap shares of 56% and 72% in Week 8 and Week 9.
It’s not shocking that Thomas is ahead of Bates on the depth chart. However, rookie Armani Rogers pushing into the mix has been surprising. Since Week 7, Rogers has had 51%, 36%, and 20% snap shares. Moreover, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Thomas has run 41 routes, Rogers has run 28, and Bates has run just 17 in the last three weeks.
Predictably, Bates has been quiet in the box scores. He’s secured only two receptions on three targets in his previous three contests. Finally, Bates has had fewer than 1.5 receptions five times in eight games this year. As a result, I’m happy to eat the chalk on his -210 line for under 1.5 receptions.
Where to bet: John Bates Under 1.5 Receptions | -210 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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