Four stone-cold locks college football bettors banked on through the first two months of the 2021 campaign: Kentucky covering the spread against FBS competition; Clemson and Indiana failing to cover the spread against FBS competition; Top 25 teams delivering a profit; and Tulsa games going Over the total.
Then came Week 9, when all four college football betting trends went up in flames — including one on the final play of a game that will forever be immortalized in the Bad Beats Hall of Fame.
While the gambling gods ripped away four sure things last week, there are still plenty of college football betting trends — both positive and negative — to ruminate on heading into Week 10. So let’s do some ruminating with the latest College Football Betting Trends Report (which, as always, considers only FBS vs. FBS results).
All ATS and Over/Under stats are reflective of VegasInsider.com’s final consensus lines.
And Then There Were None
A tip of the cap to the University of Kentucky, which took home the 2021 Last Team Standing trophy. The Wildcats cashed in each of their first six FBS-specific contests and entered last week as the only one of 130 squads to remain undefeated against the spread.
Alas, the “All good things must come to an end” cliché came calling for Kentucky on Halloween Eve, when the Wildcats (+1) jumped out to a 10-0 lead at Mississippi State but stalled from there on the way to a 31-17 defeat.
Although the ’Cats are still 6-1 ATS, they nonetheless relinquished the spread-covering throne to none other than … Syracuse. While just a .500 team SU against FBS opposition, the Orange are 7-1 ATS, having cashed in each of their last six games. Last Saturday, Syracuse (-6.5) took the field as a favorite for the first time in an FBS contest and knocked off visiting Boston College 21-6.
Bettors looking to jump aboard the Syracuse bandwagon have some extra time to pack their bags, as the Orange are on bye this week before heading to Louisville in Week 11. Can’t wait that long to back a spread-covering machine? No worries, Oklahoma State has you covered — literally.
Since coming up short as an 11.5-point favorite against Tulsa in their initial FBS contest, the Cowboys have matched Syracuse with a six-game ATS winning streak. Okie State and their man of a coach, Mike Gundy, travel to West Virginia on Saturday as 3.5-point favorites.
The Best Of The Rest
Oklahoma State and Kentucky share the No. 2 spot in the point-spread standings with Michigan State and Texas-San Antonio (both 6-1 ATS)
East Carolina is next in the pecking order at 5-1-1 ATS, followed by a trio of 6-2 ATS teams: top-ranked Georgia, Michigan, and Washington State. Like Syracuse and Oklahoma State, Wazzu has cashed in six straight games (but is on bye this week), while East Carolina has covered five in a row.
Other red-hot teams from a point-spread perspective:
- Minnesota (4-0 ATS run)
- Baylor (5-1 ATS run, including three in a row)
- Cal (5-1 ATS run, including three in a row)
- UTEP (5-1 ATS run)
As fate would have it, UTEP hosts Texas-San Antonio at 10:15 p.m. ET Saturday in a matchup of Conference USA rivals that are a combined 12-3 ATS for the season.
The Best Of The Worst
At this time a week ago, four teams had yet to cash in any of their FBS-specific games. That ignominious list was cut in half in Week 9, thanks to a pair of back-door covers — including an all-timer that surely sent thousands of bettors into therapy.
First, Indiana (+4) took its 0-6 ATS record to Maryland and scored a touchdown with 1:15 remaining to sneak inside the number in a 38-35 loss. Then came the doozy at Clemson, another 0-6 ATS outfit that was laying 9.5 points against Miami and heading straight for 0-7 ATS until …
Is the ending to Clemson and Florida State the worst double bad beat of all time?
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) October 30, 2021
(To those out there who had Miami +9.5 and/or Under 47: We want to tell you that the sting from that savage beat eventually will fade and you’ll soon forget it. But we can’t. Because you won’t. Ever.)
While Indiana and Clemson finally got to the window in miraculous fashion, Southern Miss (35-10 loss at Middle Tennessee State as a 12.5-point underdog) and Missouri (37-28 win at Vanderbilt as a 16-point road favorite) did not. The Golden Eagles and Tigers now sit at 0-7 ATS.
As you might expect, both will take the field this week as underdogs — none more so than Mizzou, which is catching 38 points at top-ranked (and 6-2 ATS) Georgia. It’s by far the biggest spread of Week 10. (Southern Miss is +5 at North Texas).
In addition to Missouri, Southern Miss, Clemson, and Indiana, the ATS cellar also features three other 1-6 ATS squads (Kansas, New Mexico, and TCU), as well as Wyoming (1-5-1 ATS).
Teams in the midst of prolonged point-spread funks include:
- Wyoming (0-5 ATS)
- Maryland and Georgia Tech (0-4 ATS)
- Temple (1-5 ATS)
- Troy and Memphis (1-4 ATS)
Top 25 Bubble Bursts
We’ve noted all season that the easiest way to build your 2021 college football bankroll has been to blindly play whatever teams are in the Top 25. Because week after week, those marquee squads turned a profit … until last week.
The Top 25 entrants in Week 9 finished dead-even at 11-11 ATS. Despite that middling result, this week’s crop of Top 25 teams boasts a combined 116-67-2 ATS mark (62.7% cover rate) in FBS-specific contests. The schools residing in the penthouse — No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Cincinnati, No. 3 Alabama, No. 4 Oklahoma, and No. 5 Michigan State — are a combined 25-12 ATS (67.6%). And that’s despite Oklahoma’s 3-5 ATS mark.
As has been the case all season, ranked teams from the SEC and Big Ten are still funding vacation homes across the land. This week’s six ranked SEC squads (Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Kentucky) and five ranked Big Ten teams (Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Iowa) are 56-25-1 ATS.
That pencils out to a 68.3 percent cover rate.
It’s ‘Over’ For Tulsa Overs
Prior to Week 9, Tulsa was the only major college team still sporting a perfect “totals” record, as each of the Golden Hurricane’s first six FBS-specific games went Over the total. Then Navy came to town with its slow-it-down triple-option offense and departed with a 20-17 victory that fell nearly 10 points short of the consensus total (46.5).
Tulsa is now 6-1 to the Over, same as Louisiana-Monroe, which has hurdled the number in five straight games. Utah is next at 5-1 to the Over, while three teams — Houston, Missouri, and Nevada — are on 5-1 Over runs.
Conducting the Under train is Illinois, which has stayed low in eight of its nine FBS contests (including the last seven in a row). Falling in line behind the Illini are:
- Purdue (7-1 Under)
- Washington, Southern Miss, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Colorado State (6-1 Under)
- Washington State (6-2 Under)
Finally, for just the second time all season, the Over won out in Week 9, going 28-25. The Under remains profitable for the season, though, cashing at a 55 percent clip in FBS contests (260 Unders, 212 Overs, 1 Push).
