If you’re looking for offense in Week 1, you’ve come to the right place. The Kansas City Chiefs will travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair. The total currently sits at 54.0 points, and only three other games have had a total of at least 53 points in Week 1 over the past seven years. Each of those previous contests has involved either the Chiefs or the Cardinals, so it’s not surprising that the total is sky-high with both teams squaring off.
The Chiefs’ offense has been one of the best in football since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback. However, he will have to prove that he can continue to dominate without Tyreek Hill on the outside. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have gotten off to red-hot starts each of the past two years before sputtering down the stretch.
Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s dive into the Chiefs vs. Cardinals predictions.
Chiefs vs. Cardinals Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -6 (-110) | -240 | O 54.0 (-110) |
| at Cardinals | +6 (-110) | +200 | U 54.0 (-110) |
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook as of 1 p.m. ET on Sept. 7
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 11
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
- TV: CBS
Chiefs vs. Cardinals Trends
- The Chiefs were 12-5 last season (8-9 against the spread).
- The Cardinals were 11-6 last season (10-7 against the spread).
- The Cardinals were 6-1 ATS before Kyler Murray was injured in Week 8.
- Home underdogs of at least four points are 13-12 against the spread in Week 1.
- Andy Reid is 6-3 against the spread in Week 1 games with the Chiefs.
- Patrick Mahomes is 30-21 against the spread when not favored by double-digits.
- As of Wednesday, DraftKings reports that 71% of the spread bets and 80% of the handle are on the Chiefs.
- As for the total, 67% of the bets and 72% of the handle is on the over.
Will The Chiefs Offense Step Back?
It may not have felt like it, but the Chiefs’ offense showed signs of regression last year. Mahomes threw more interceptions than he did in the previous two years combined, and he averaged more than 30 fewer passing yards per game. The offense was still excellent – they ranked third in yards per game and fourth in points – but they weren’t exactly a juggernaut.
Now, they’ll have to fill the shoes of one of the best receivers in the game. Hill’s deep speed is one of the most dangerous assets in the league. Defenses have to be constantly aware of him, similarly to how NBA defenses have to treat Steph Curry. Even if he isn’t getting the ball, he created tremendous space for the rest of his teammates.
The #Chiefs haven’t lost in week 1 since 2014 ( the longest streak in the league) pic.twitter.com/wGK2Uem7nL
— Storm🌩 (@chiefstorm2) September 6, 2022
The Chiefs still have plenty of fast receivers – Mecole Hardman, Marques Valdez-Scantling, and Skyy Moore are all burners – but none of them strikes fear into the heart of defenses like Hill.
Additionally, Travis Kelce is getting a bit long in the tooth. He’ll turn 33 years old in October, and his production decreased last year. He averaged nearly 25 fewer receiving yards per game, and he averaged the fewest yards per target of his career.
So is there a legitimate reason for concern? Probably not. Mahomes is that good, and Andy Reid is arguably the best play-caller in the NFL. You shouldn’t read too much into preseason statistics, but Mahomes led the Chiefs to three touchdowns in his three drives. Some of the names may have changed, but expect this unit to continue to thrive.
The Cardinals: The Ultimate NFL Enigma
There is no team that I struggle to handicap more than the Cardinals. They’ve been among the best teams in the league to start the past two years before limping to the finish line.
The big reason for their late-season struggles involves the health of Murray. He’s one of the most dynamic players in the league, but his diminutive stature does make him vulnerable to injuries. Before hurting his leg in Week 8 vs. the Packers, Murray racked up 0.20 Expected Points Added per dropback (per Sharp Football). Only Aaron Rodgers was better than that over the course of the full year. After the injury, he dipped to -0.03 EPA per dropback.
Kliff Kingsbury also seems to self-destruct towards the end of the year. It’s obviously much tougher to gameplan with a hobbled quarterback, but he’s made enough questionable decisions that he’s been labeled a “fake sharp” but some of the sports betting and fantasy community.
“I’m confident where we’re at,” Kyler Murray prepares for a showdown with Pat Mahomes in Week 1 on #AZFamily pic.twitter.com/sCDVd7wQf9
— Mark McClune (@MarkMcClune) September 7, 2022
So which version of the Cards will show up in Week 1? Who knows. On one hand, Murray is presumably healthy. However, he won’t have DeAndre Hopkins available at his disposal. Removing Hopkins from the equation leaves the Cardinals with a weak group of pass-catchers, especially when combined with the loss of Christian Kirk. Acquiring Marquise Brown does help, but it’s still a below-average unit.
If the Cardinals’ offense isn’t up to the challenge, they could get left in the dust: Their defense profiles as one of the worst in the NFL this season.
Week 1 NFL Props: Justin Bales pinpoints the best NFL player props for Week 1, including a severely underrated running back.
Chiefs vs. Cardinals Predictions
Sharp bettors have been absolutely teeing off on the Chiefs ever since this line opened. It was originally set at Chiefs -3.0 back when the line first came out in May, and they have steamed it all the way up to Chiefs -6.0.
With most of the line value now gone, I think the best bet is with the over. I’m bullish on the Chiefs’ offense even without Hill, and I think the Cardinals might be a bit undervalued with a healthy Murray. That should lead to plenty of points scored.
Pick: Over 54.0 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
