The offenses should rule the roost in a fun AFC shootout on Sunday Night Football. The defenses trail the offenses in talent and production. Still, will they score enough points to clear the lofty bar set by their massive over/under? We’ll look at both teams before providing our favorite Chargers vs. Dolphins predictions.
Chargers vs. Dolphins Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -3 (-110) | -170 | O 53.5 (-110) |
| @ Chargers | +3 (-110) | +143 | U 53.5 (-110) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 11 p.m. ET on Dec. 10. New to Caesars? Check out our Caesars Sportsbook Review to find out how to get up to $1,250 in risk-free bets!
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
- TV: NBC
Chargers vs. Dolphins Trends
- The game’s total opened at 51.5 points on Sunday (12/4), nudged up to 52.0 points, dipped back to 51.5 points, and has been climbing late in the week to its present 53.5 points.
- The over is 4-0 in the Chargers’ last four home games versus a team with a winning road record.
- The over is 10-2 in Los Angeles’s last 12 games following a straight-up loss.
- The over is 10-2 in the Chargers’ last 12 games on field turf.
- The over is 5-1 in Los Angeles’s last six games versus a team with a winning record.
- The over is 7-2 in Los Angeles’s last nine home games.
- The over is 4-0 in the Dolphins’ last four road games.
- The over is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games.
- The over is 13-6 in the Dolphins’ last 19 games following an against-the-spread loss.
The Chargers Can Get it Done Through the Air
It hasn’t been an ideal campaign for Justin Herbert. First, his No. 1 wideout, Keenan Allen, suffered a multi-week hamstring injury in their opener, prematurely returned in Week 7, and didn’t make his full return until Week 11. Then, Herbert suffered a rib cartilage fracture at the end of a heartbreaking loss against the Chiefs in Week 2.
Sadly, the poor luck didn’t end there. Mike Williams suffered an ankle injury in Week 7 and re-aggravated it in Week 11. And, of course, blindside protector Rashawn Slater sustained a season-ending injury in Week 3. Nevertheless, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Chargers are a respectable 13th in scoring offense (22.7). Herbert is doing the heavy lifting, ranking fifth in passing yards per game (278.3) and tied for seventh in passing touchdowns (seven).
Herbert’s numbers are more impressive when considering the suboptimal circumstances. Fortunately, Williams isn’t on the injury report. So, in a good matchup, Herbert will have his full complement of weapons at his disposal this week.
According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins are 23rd in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Meanwhile, per numberFire, the Chargers have passed 174 times and rushed just 74 times with non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in their previous five games. Thus, the matchup is ideal for Los Angeles’s offense.
Miami’s Versatile Offense Should Provide Fireworks
Miami’s offense is electrifying. Last week, they were stuck in the mud against San Francisco’s elite defense. And their offensive line is a question mark, especially if Terron Armstead (questionable) cannot play. Still, Los Angeles’s defense is lousy and dealing with injuries.
Superstar Derwin James is doubtful, cornerback Bryce Callahan is doubtful, and defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day is doubtful. In addition, the Chargers are 16th in pass defense DVOA, 30th in rush defense DVOA, 31st in yards allowed per play (6.1), and 30th in scoring defense (25.8 points per game). They’re lousy and will likely be worse without integral players.
Conversely, the Dolphins are 14th in rush offense DVOA, first in pass offense DVOA, second in total offense DVOA, second in yards per play (6.3), and eighth in scoring offense (24.9). Additionally, Miami has scored at least 30 points in four of their last five games. They’ve done an outstanding job of shredding dreadful defenses, and the Chargers are a bottom-tier defense.
Chargers vs. Dolphins Predictions
The Dolphins average 26.6 points per game in Tua Tagovailoa’s 10 starts. Their median outcome this year in those games is 25.5 points. Their defense is underwhelming, too. The Dolphins are 17th in total defense DVOA, 13th in yards allowed per play (5.4), and tied for 25th in scoring defense (24.1 points per game).
The game’s pace should be fast, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers are first in situation-neutral pace, and the Dolphins are 16th. This game looks like one that should be a back-and-forth shootout. So, I’m hopping on the game’s over for 53.5 points. My only concern is Miami controlling the clock on the ground and ripping off chunk gains at five yards a clip instead of scoring quick touchdowns. Still, it’s not a significant enough concern for me to pass on the game’s over.
Pick: Over 53.5 points | -110 at Caesars Sportsbook