First, here’s the good news. It’s a primetime game without the Broncos. Second, the game’s spread is only two points. So, it should be a competitive affair. However, there’s some potentially bad news. The game’s total is only 44 points. Thus, it might be another low-scoring affair. What do we expect from the game? Are we leaning toward one team’s spread, moneyline, or the game’s total? You’ll have to check the team write-ups and predictions for the game to see our favorite bet.
Cardinals vs. Saints Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | +2 (-110) | +115 | O 44 (-110) |
| @ Cardinals | -2 (-110) | -135 | U 44 (-110) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 10 pm ET on Oct. 19
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 20
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium – Glendale, ARI
- TV: Amazon
Cardinals vs. Saints Trends
- The total opened at 47 points at BetFred, cratered as low as 43.5 points on Wednesday evening before settling in at 44 points on Wednesday night.
- The under is 6-1 in Arizona’s last seven games after scoring fewer than 15 points in the previous game.
- The under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last five games.
- The under is 5-0 in Arizona’s last five games vs. NFC opponents.
- The under is 16-5 in the Cardinals’ last 21 games following a straight-up loss.
- The under is 12-3-1 in New Orleans’s last 16 Thursday games.
- The under is 6-1 in the Saints’ last seven games following an against-the-spread loss.
- The under is 5-2 in New Orleans’s last seven games.
- The under is 5-2 in the Saints’ last seven road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Arizona’s Stumbling Offense Loses/Gains A Weapon
Marquise Brown was flourishing with his former college quarterback. He leads the Cardinals in targets (64), receptions (43), receiving yards (485), and touchdown receptions (3). No one else on the Cardinals has reached even 300 receiving yards. So, the foot injury he suffered last week that landed him on the Injured Reserve is a damaging blow to Arizona’s already lifeless offense.
For example, the Cardinals have scored fewer than 20 points in three of their last four games, including mustering a season-low nine points in a mouthwatering matchup with the Seahawks last week. Before Week 6, the Seahawks had allowed at least 27 points in four consecutive games.
Yes, the Cardinals are getting DeAndre Hopkins back from his six-game suspension. Still, he’s not getting a full week of practice before making his season debut and might be rusty. Moreover, Nuk is unlikely to cure all that ails Arizona’s hot-garbage offense. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals are 26th in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
The Saints Damaged Receiving Corps
The Cardinals aren’t the only club in this contest with an integral absence in their passing attack. In fact, the Saints have multiple absences. Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Adam Trautman are out. Fortunately, they’re getting Chris Olave back from a one-game absence.
Still, the Cardinals are stingy against No. 1 wideouts. Per Football Outsiders, Arizona has allowed the fewest yards per game (44.2) to No. 1 receivers. Can Olave get the better of them? Maybe. He’s a supremely talented wideout. However, Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway aren’t imposing threats to detract from the Cardinals devoting resources to Olave.
It’s not all doom and gloom for the Saints. They’re healthy at quarterback. Neither Andy Dalton nor Jameis Winston is on the injury report. Still, it’s a mystery who’s starting, and neither is a world-beating quarterback.
In addition, the Saints have been a below-average offense overall this year, ranking 18th in total offense DVOA. And, of course, their season-long rank includes games they’ve been healthier. Therefore, expecting them to underperform their slightly below-average ranking while persevering through injuries is reasonable.
Cardinals vs. Saints Predictions
The defenses for the Cardinals and Saints haven’t been top-shelf. However, they’ve been slightly better than the offenses. First, the Cardinals are 20th in total defense DVOA. Second, the Saints are 18th in total defense DVOA.
Also, the game’s spread is small, so the teams are unlikely to play faster than usual to play catch-up. Instead, they’ll likely play slow, as they have this year. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals are 21st in situation-neutral pace, and the Saints are 24th. Thus, it might be a slog if the game is competitive.
A slow pace is good for the game’s under. The betting trends above are also supportive of betting the under. Finally, this year’s Thursday Night Football data screams to bet the under, too. The totals for this year’s Thursday Night Football games have averaged 36.6 points, have a median of 41.5 points, and have gone under 44 four times. So, let’s bet the under for 44 total points.
Pick: Under 44 total points | -110 at Caesars Sportsbook