In the Sunday Night Baseball feature, the Phillies take on the Brewers at Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park. Focus on those last four words, because history suggests they’re very important.
The home team has won eight of the last 10 Brewers-Phillies meetings, a trend that goes back to May 2019. Can Philadelphia extend that number with a much-needed victory to get back into the NL East race, or will Milwaukee hand the Phillies their fourth-straight series loss to start the season?
The oddsmakers lean toward the Phillies, who are a -155 moneyline favorite. That number isn’t surprising when you consider the pitching matchup: Right-hander and former All-Star Aaron Nola takes the hill for the hosts against middle-of-the-road Brewers southpaw Eric Lauer. However, Nola and the Phillies’ bullpen have struggled in this young season. Can they be trusted in this spot against the Brewers?
Props.com breaks Brewers vs Phillies odds and ends for this Sunday Night Baseball matchup.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 6 p.m. ET on April 24.
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Milwaukee Brewers (9-6) Vs Philadelphia Phillies (6-9)
First Pitch/TV: 7:00 p.m. ET/ESPN
Moneyline: Brewers +130/Phillies -150
Runline: Phillies -1.5 (+140)/Brewers +1.5 (-160)
Total: 7.5 (Over -115)
Pitching matchup: LHP Eric Lauer (1-0, 3.48 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (1-2, 5.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Season series: This is the third meeting between these teams in 2022. The Phillies picked up a 4-2 win on Friday while the Brewers responded with a 5-3 victory on Saturday.
Did you know: The Phillies rattled off five straight victories against the Brewers in 2021 before dropping the last pair of head-to-head matchups. Dating back to 2019, the Phillies have won eight of the last 12 against Milwaukee.
About the Brewers
Hits & Misses: The Brewers checked into the season as slight favorites to win the NL Central. After 15 games, Milwaukee has mostly lived up to that billing, currently trailing the Cardinals by one game in the division standings. That’s somewhat impressive when considering the Brewers’ bats haven’t made the trip north from spring training. To that point, Milwaukee ranks 20th in runs per game (3.53), 24th in wRC+ (84), and 22nd in OPS (.629). However, there’s a glimmer of hope for the Brewers’ offense, as they rank 25th in BABIP at .260, which suggests they have been hitting the ball with unlucky results. Expect that to normalize closer to the median (.280) as the season rolls on.
On the Mound: Lauer steps in to take the bump for a Milwaukee pitching staff that has been solid with an overall 3.50 ERA and 9.41 strikeout rate per nine innings. The left-handed tosser has started two games this season, totaling 10.1 innings with 10 strikeouts, 8 hits allowed, and four earned runs. However, we need to put an asterisk next to those numbers, as Lauer faced two of the (expected) worst offenses in the league (at Baltimore, vs. Pittsburgh). Tonight’s matchup at Philadelphia represents a substantial step up in competition.
Key injuries: SS Luis Urias (quad) remains on the injured list along with RP Justin Topa (arm).
About the Phillies
Hits & Misses: Philadelphia started the season by going 3-1 in its first four games. The waters got choppy after that, as the Phillies are just 3-8 over their last 11 games, dropping series to the Mets, Marlins, and Rockies. A win on Sunday night would mark the first series win in four tries while giving the Phillies some much-needed momentum. The pitching has been a problem for Philadelphia, as it has the fifth-worst ERA (4.98) at this point in the season. The bullpen serves as the culprit, as the Phillies have the worst ERA (4.58) among relievers this season. The offense ranks around the league average with 4.27 runs per game (12th) and fifth in OPS (.745).
On the Mound: Is Aaron Nola an ace pitcher? The early 2022 results are pessimistic, as the right-hander currently holds a 5.52 ERA across three starts. Nola has uncharacteristically given up 13 hits and nine earned runs across 14.2 innings to begin the season. Allowing four homers over that span doesn’t help. Let’s keep in mind that Nola is a career 3.70 ERA pitcher who allows just one homerun per nine innings. The Philly starter is off to a rough start, but he certainly has the ability to dominate if he can find his form.
Injuries: SS Didi Gregorius (hand) is probable for this Sunday Night Baseball matchup. RP Ryan Sheriff (shoulder) and RP Sam Coonrod (shoulder) are notable absences in the Philadelphia bullpen, but those two relievers were not high in the pecking order to begin with.
Notable Trends
- Under is 5-1 in Milwaukee’s last six games.
- Brewers have lost seven straight as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Philadelphia’s last six games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last six against the NL East.
- Under is 7-3 in Philadelphia’s last 10 against a left-handed starter.
- Brewers are 1-5 in the last six at Philadelphia.
Brewers Vs Phillies Odds and Action
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SUNDAY: About an hour before first pitch, Philadelphia is a -157 favorite in TwinSpires Sportsbook’s Brewers vs Phillies odds market. The Phillies opened -150 and initially backed up a nickel to -145, before rebounding to -152, then advancing to -157 in the past hour. It’s two-way moneyline action with a lean toward Philly, at 52% of tickets/57% of money. The total opened at 8 and is down to 7.5 (Under -112).
“Sharp play on Under 8,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said, noting 59% of tickets on the Over/65% of cash on the Under.
UPDATE 1:00 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The Phillies opened -154 at DraftKings,with the Brewers listed at +135. The Phillies briefly popped up to -164 early Sunday morning before the line settled at Phillies -155/Brewers +135. Philly is taking 69% of the moneyline bets, and those tickets account for a whopping 89% of moneyline handle at DraftKings. The total opened at 8 (Under -115) on Saturday night and receded to to 7.5 (Over -120). DraftKings reports 74% of tickets and 72% of the money backing the Under.
