The AFC West has been embroiled in a number of twists, turns, and overtime finishes in just three weeks of NFL action. The most noteworthy piece of news: For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the two-time defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs are occupying last place in the division.
Are we looking at a season-long trend? Or might things return to “normal” in due time?
With the division a bit upside-down — at least based on preseason prognostications — Props.com analyzes the updated odds to win the AFC West.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, Circa Sports, DraftKings, FanDuel, and TwinSpires, and updated as of 9 p.m. ET on Sept. 29.
Las Vegas Raiders (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
Odds to win division:
BetMGM: +550
Circa Sports: +430
DraftKings: +550
FanDuel: +550
TwinSpires: +650
— The Raiders may be enjoying the franchise’s first 3-0 start since 2002, but the betting community isn’t buying their long-term prospects. To wit, every aforementioned sportsbook has Las Vegas as the biggest underdog to win the AFC West.
— The Raiders have been riding the resurgent right arm of QB Derek Carr, who leads the NFL in passing yards. Good thing, too, because the offense ranks 25th in rushing (averaging 91.3 yards per game). This sluggish start on the ground can be attributed to injuries (namely starting tailback Josh Jacobs) and a patchwork offensive line that ranked 26th during the preseason, according to Pro Football Focus.
— Can the Raiders buck the odds and win their first division title since their 2002 Super Bowl season? Sure. So long as they’re sitting at 6-3 or better heading into Week 10. That’s because the back end of the schedule is so tough that Las Vegas might only be favored twice in its final eight games (vs. Washington, at Indianapolis).
— Since 2014, the AFC West champion has cleanly averaged 12 victories per year. With this being the first 17-game campaign, the division champ might need 13-plus wins to claim the division crown. That is unless these rivals beat each other up in divisional play.
Denver Broncos (3-0 SU and ATS)
Odds to win division:
BetMGM: +350
Circa Sports: +385
DraftKings: +300
FanDuel: +340
TwinSpires: +350
— The Broncos have had the easiest schedule to date, blitzing the winless Giants, Jaguars, and Jets by an average margin of 16.7 points. As such, a number of memes poking fun at Denver’s less-than-taxing opponents lot are making the rounds online (including this Homer Simpson-inspired gem).
— Like everyone in the division, Denver will encounter the AFC North and NFC East this season, but here’s the difference: For their extra regular-season outing (i.e., the 17th game), the Broncos will face the rebuilding Lions (currently 0-3) at home in Week 14. By comparison, the Chiefs’ NFC North crossover involves the mighty Packers.
— Denver ranks third or higher in four major defensive categories: First in scoring defense (8.7 points per game), second in total defense (221.7 yards per week), second in rushing defense (59.3 yards per game), and third in passing defense (162.3 yards per week). Again, though: Giants, Jaguars, Jets.
— Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater has enjoyed a remarkable start, racking up four touchdowns, zero interceptions, 827 yards passing, and an elite-level completion rate of 76.8 percent.
— Life inside the AFC West can be a grind. However, if Denver can at least go .500 in divisional play, the rest of the schedule sets up well (their eight remaining non-divisional opponents are 11-13 combined).
Los Angeles Chargers (2-1 SU and ATS)
Odds to win division:
BetMGM: +475
Circa Sports: +395
DraftKings: +350
FanDuel: +390
TwinSpires: +400
— The bookmakers are ostensibly divided on who’s the better second choice to win the West, the Chargers or Broncos? Both teams have already collected two road wins, but only Los Angeles boasts a signature road victory (at Kansas City). The Chargers also have two doable AFC crossover games left on the schedule (vs. New England, at Houston), unlike the Broncos, who have already beaten the Jaguars and Jets.
— One more thing working in the Chargers’ favor: They only have one game left against Kansas City (and it’s at home). Denver has two.
— Six of the Chargers’ last 10 defeats (including this year) were by five points or fewer points. This speaks to the club’s ability to compete every Sunday, but also its shaky execution down the stretch. The franchise might have changed head coaches during the offseason (replacing Anthony Lynn with Brandon Staley), but crucial crunch-time mistakes that plagued Lynn’s tenure with the Chargers are still being made. (Staley might want to brush up on the illegal shift rule.)
— With these wild swings of inconsistent play, can Los Angeles really make a push for 12-13 victories?
Kansas City Chiefs (1-2, 0-3 ATS)
Odds to win division:
BetMGM: -125
Circa Sports: +109
DraftKings: +110
FanDuel: -115
TwinSpires: -125
— The Chiefs have won five straight AFC West titles and boast the NFL’s fifth-best scoring offense to date (30.7 points per game). So it’ll take more than a humbling 1-2 start for oddsmakers to budge from their opinion that Kansas City is the team to beat in the AFC West.
— Since 2018, Kansas City owns a 15-4 record inside the division (and that includes Sunday’s home loss to the Chargers). Also worth noting: During that 19-game stretch, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t lost a road start to an AFC West opponent.
— The Chiefs have the NFL’s 31st-ranked rush defense, allowing 160.3 ground yards per game. This doesn’t bode well for K.C. given its remaining lot of opponents, which include four of the league’s five best rushing offenses (Browns, Titans, Cowboys, and Eagles).
— Kansas City is a woeful 1-11-1 ATS in its last 13 games, which means it is consistently failing to play up to the linemakers’ expectations. Yet those linemakers still have the Chiefs as the overwhelming favorite to win the division. Makes you wonder what the AFC West odds would be if the Chiefs hadn’t rallied to beat the Browns in Week 1 and were sitting at 0-3.
