Sometimes, picking the lead item for the NFL Point Spread Report is easier than predicting a Jaguars loss. Other times, it’s more difficult than getting Bill Belichick to crack a smile at a postgame news conference.
This week falls into the latter category. Week 13 of the NFL season included the following results:
— One team went on the road in frigid conditions and ran its SU and ATS winning streak to seven in a row … despite throwing a grand total of three passes.
— Another moved to 7-0 SU and ATS on the road this season with a blowout victory (also in frigid conditions).
— And yet another posted a 13-point road win against a divisional rival, and as a result, improved to 5-for-5 as a double-digit favorite.
Any of these storylines could kick off this week’s NFL Point Spread Report. Instead, we’re going in a “totally” different direction …
All statistics based off closing numbers per VegasInsider.com.
| Trends | Last Week | Season Overall |
| Favorites SU | 8-6 | 115-78-1 |
| Favorites ATS | 8-6 | 86-107-1 |
| Over/Under | 5-9 | 83-109-2 |
‘Under’ Further Investigation …
If you rely on reasonable logic and simple probability to guide your NFL wagering, you’ve probably done quite well over the years. This, however, would not be one of those years, at least when it comes to betting NFL totals.
In Week 13, nine of 14 games stayed Under the total, with six of those contests featuring less than 40 combined points. The Under is now cashing at a 56.8 percent clip for the season (109-83-2) — a rate that jumps to 62.1 percent over the past month (the Under is 36-22 since Week 10).
What’s driving this strong NFL betting trend? Primarily, four defensive-minded and/or offensively inept teams, and two completely random (yet significant) situations. Let’s start with the teams:
Following Sunday night’s 22-9 loss at Kansas City, the Broncos are now 10-2 to the Under this season, with their last six games staying low. The Jaguars, whose 37-7 Week 13 loss at the Rams fell short of the 48-point total, also are 10-2 to the Under, including seven in a row.
The Seahawks were finally involved in (and won) a shootout against San Francisco last week (30-23), snapping an 8-0-1 Under run. Still, the Under is 9-2-1 in Seattle’s games this season.
Right behind the Seahawks are the Giants, who are 8-3-1 Under for the season. Like the Broncos, New York has stayed low in six consecutive games.
Additionally, the NFC North has been a boon for Under bettors, as 75 percent of the division (Bears, Lions, and Packers) is 8-4 to the Under. The one exception has been the Vikings, and even they sport a strong Under trend: Minnesota — which hosts Pittsburgh on Thursday night — has come up short of the total in four of five home games.
Prime Time Profits
Remember way, way back in late September when the NFL’s marquee games of the week were paying off for Over bettors like a malfunctioning slot machine? Seems like decades ago.
Since eight of the first nine prime-time games soared Over the total, the Under is 21-8-1 (72.4%) in Thursday/Sunday/Monday night matchups. Wait, it gets better:
Last seven prime-time games, dating to the Week 11 Giants-Buccaneers Monday nighter: All Under the total.
Last 11 Thursday night games: 10 Unders (including four in a row).
Last eight Monday night games: Seven Unders (including four in a row).
Just as wild as the prime-time Under trend: Nearly two-thirds of all cross-conference games have stayed low. Through 63 AFC-NFC clashes to date, the Under is 41-21-1. That includes a 21-9 Under mark in the past five weeks alone.
To recap: The Under is 21-8-1 in prime-time games since Week 4 (with the last seven in a row staying low); 10-1 in the last 11 Thursday night games; and 21-9 in the last 30 interconference contests. And so we repeat:
The Vikings (NFC) host the Steelers (AFC) on Thursday night. The consensus total: 43.5.
Other cross-conference matchups and consensus totals in Week 14: Saints at Jets (43.5), 49ers at Bengals (48.5), Seahawks at Texans (41.5), Lions at Broncos (42), Giants at Chargers (44.5), Bills at Buccaneers (53).
Makin’ Money
By now you’re probably wondering, “Is there any other way to make money betting the NFL than hammering a bunch of different Under trends?” Yup. Plenty of ways, in fact.
You can start by backing the New England Patriots whenever they take the field, the Arizona Cardinals whenever they play on the road, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers whenever they’re a double-digit favorite. Each of those squads extended impressive SU and ATS winning streaks in Week 13.
The Patriots went to Buffalo and reminded fans what the NFL looked like in the 1930s, calling just three pass plays and yet still somehow upsetting the Bills. That’s now seven consecutive victories and spread covers for New England, which has gone from 2-4 SU/ATS and a playoff long shot to 9-4 SU/ATS and the best record in the AFC.
The best record in the NFC belongs to the Cardinals, who improved to 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS overall and an even more impressive 7-0 SU/ATS on the road with a 33-22 win in Chicago.
Arizona holds a one-game lead in the NFC over the Packers (who at 10-2 ATS remain kings of the NFL point-spread mountain) and Bucs. While Green Bay had its bye last week, Tampa Bay went to Atlanta and beat the Falcons 30-17 as a 10.5-point road favorite. The Bucs own one of the most bizarre point-spread marks in recent memory: They’re 5-0 ATS as a double-digit chalk and 1-6 ATS otherwise.
So, there you go: Backing New England anytime, Arizona on the highway, and Tampa Bay as a hefty chalk is a surefire path to profitability. Alas … this week, the Pats are on bye, the Cardinals are at home, and the Bucs are only laying 3.5 points against visiting Buffalo.
Trending In Different Directions
That doesn’t mean you can’t ride some strong NFL point spread trends in Week 14. Here are five of our favorites:
Green Bay (-12.5) vs. Chicago: The Packers have cashed in 10 of their last 11 overall, and they’re 6-1 SU/ATS as a favorite and 5-0 SU/ATS at home. The Bears are 4-8 ATS overall, including 2-7 ATS as an underdog.
Kansas City (-9.5) vs. Las Vegas: The Chiefs, who started the season 2-7 ATS overall and 0-5 ATS at home, have cashed in each of their last three games (including a 41-14 Week 10 rout in Las Vegas). Meanwhile, the Raiders are 1-4 SU/ATS in their last five. The Chiefs also have stayed Under the total in six of their last seven overall, including four straight in K.C.
Dallas (-4) at Washington: The Cowboys are tied with Arizona for the second-best NFL point-spread record at 9-3 ATS, including 5-1 ATS on the road and 7-2 ATS as a favorite. Meanwhile, Washington has won and covered four in a row after starting out 1-7 ATS. Also, the Under is 5-1 in Dallas’ last six overall, 6-1 in Washington’s last seven overall, and 3-0 in Washington’s last three at home.
Broncos (-8.5) vs. Lions: It might have taken Detroit 12 games to finally pick up a victory on the field, but the Lions have been money in the bank for bettors over the past month, cashing in four straight games. However, the real betting-trend intrigue in this one lies with the total: As noted, Denver is 10-2 Under this season, including 5-1 at home. Detroit topped the total in last week’s win but is still on Under runs of 8-2 overall and 5-1 on the road.
Saints (-5.5) at Jets: The Saints have been a money-burner of late (three straight non-covers) and as a favorite all season (1-4 ATS). The Jets have been a money-burner in every way imaginable: league-worst 3-9 ATS overall (all as an underdog), 2-4 ATS at home (0-3 last three), and 2-6 ATS as a dog of 7 points or fewer.
ATS Standings
Best:
Packers 10-2
Cowboys 9-3
Cardinals 9-3
Patriots 9-4
Lions 8-4
Colts 8-5
Worst:
Jets 3-9
Bears 4-8
Jaguars 4-8
(12 teams tied at 5-7)
Over/Under Standings
Over:
Colts 8-5
49ers 7-5
Jets 7-5
Titans 7-5
Vikings 7-5
Under:
Broncos 10-2
Jaguars 10-2
Seahawks 9-2-1
Giants 8-3-1
Bears 8-4
Lions 8-4
Packers 8-4
Texans 8-4
